Clovis Neumann

The sustainable management of energy resources is fundamental in addressing global environmental and economic challenges, particularly when considering biofuels such as ethanol and gasoline. This study evaluates advanced forecasting models to predict consumption trends for these fuels in Brazil. The models analyzed include ARIMA/SARIMA, Holt–Winters, ETS, TBATS, Facebook Prophet, Uber Orbit, N-BEATS, and TFT. By leveraging datasets spanning 72, 144, and 263 months, the study aims to assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex temporal consumption patterns. Uber Orbit exhibited the highest accuracy in forecasting ethanol consumption among the evaluated models, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.77%. Meanwhile, the TBATS model demonstrated superior performance for gasoline consumption, with a MAPE of 3.22%. Our models have achieved more accurate predictions than other compared works, suggesting ethanol demand is more dynamic and underlining the potential of advanced time–series models to enhance the precision of energy consumption forecasts. This study contributes to more effective resource planning by improving predictive accuracy, enabling data-driven policy making, optimizing resource allocation, and advancing sustainable energy management practices. These results support Brazil’s energy sector and provide a framework for sustainable decision making that could be applied globally.

The sustainable management of energy resources is fundamental in addressing global environmental and economic challenges, particularly when considering biofuels such as ethanol and gasoline. This study evaluates advanced forecasting models to predict consumption trends for these fuels in Brazil. The models analyzed include ARIMA/SARIMA, Holt-Winters, ETS, TBATS, Facebook Prophet, Uber Orbit, N-BEATS, and TFT. By leveraging datasets spanning 72, 144, and 263 months, the study aims to assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex temporal consumption patterns. Uber Orbit exhibited the highest accuracy in forecasting ethanol consumption among the evaluated models, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.77%. Meanwhile, the TBATS model demonstrated superior performance for gasoline consumption, with a MAPE of 3.22%. These results underline the potential of advanced time-series models to enhance the precision of energy consumption forecasts. This study contributes to more effective resource planning by improving predictive accuracy, enabling data-driven policy-making, optimizing resource allocation, and advancing sustainable energy management practices. These results support Brazil’s energy sector and provide a framework for sustainable decision-making that could be applied globally.

The increasing complexity of contemporary malware, driven by the use of advanced evasion and obfuscation techniques, combined with the rapid growth in the number of new variants emerging continuously, undermines the effectiveness of traditional signature-based detection mechanisms. In response to this scenario, this work proposes FORENSICS (Framework fOr malwaRe dEtectioN baSed on InstruCtion Sequences), an innovative deep learning-based framework that employs variable-length instruction sequences to detect malware efficiently and accurately. By integrating Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, FORENSICS analyzes opcode sequences extracted from real-world malware and benign software artifacts. The framework introduces optimized methods for opcode extraction and representation, significantly reducing computational overhead while preserving detection performance. FORENSICS achieved 99.91% accuracy, 99.99% precision, and detection times ranging from 8 to 17 milliseconds, outperforming several state-of-the-art approaches across multiple metrics. Additionally, the framework demonstrated robustness in identifying zero-day malware samples, confirming its effectiveness in real-world cybersecurity scenarios. A new balanced dataset comprising over 40,000 labeled samples was created and made publicly available, facilitating reproducibility and encouraging further research. These results position FORENSICS as a robust, scalable, and highly effective solution for malware detection in modern threat landscapes.

To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) and improve energy management efficiency, it is essential to develop models and methods to forecast and enhance the process accurately. These tools are crucial in shaping the national policymakers’ strategies and planning decisions. This study utilizes data envelopment analysis (DEA) and bootstrap computational methods to evaluate Brazil’s energy efficiency from 2004 to 2023. Additionally, it compares seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models to predict the variables’ trends for 2030. One significant contribution of this study is the development of a methodology to assess Brazil’s energy efficiency, considering environmental and economic factors to formulate results. These results can help create policies to make SDG7 a reality and advance Brazil’s energy strategies. According to the study results, the annual energy consumption rate is projected to increase by an average of 2.1% by 2030, which is accompanied by a trend of GDP growth. By utilizing existing technologies in the country, it is possible to reduce electricity consumption costs by an average of 30.58% while still maintaining the same GDP value. This demonstrates that sustainable development and adopting alternatives to minimize the increase in energy consumption can substantially impact Brazil’s energy sector, improving process efficiency and the profitability of the Brazilian industry.

The global transition towards environmentally friendly energy sources plays a major role in addressing both energy security and climate change. Brazil is at the forefront of this transition due to its rich natural resources and increasing investments in biofuels. Therefore, this investigation examines the consumption patterns and interactions between ethanol, primarily sourced from sugarcane, and gasoline within Brazil’s energy framework. Ethanol’s renewability, reduced environmental impact, and superior combustion characteristics position it as a feasible substitute for traditional fossil fuels. Nonetheless, obstacles like competition for land use and inadequate distribution infrastructure impede its widespread acceptance. This study explores the economic interaction between ethanol and gasoline, focusing on pricing dynamics and regional influences. Using consumer preferences and the accessibility of ethanol, this research identifies a range of price ratios within which consumer preferences shift from gasoline to ethanol in various Brazilian regions. The study also classifies Brazilian states into three distinct ranges based on the ethanol-to-gasoline price ratio in 2023 for a granular analysis of the economic dynamics influencing fuel choice. The research identifies states with competitive and dominant ethanol markets by examining the interplay between ethanol market share, fuel prices, and the adoption of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the country. Lastly, the findings support the importance of regional economic conditions and the influence of price ratios on consumer behavior, highlighting that ethanol’s market share does not always correlate with favorable pricing.

Volatility reflects the degree of variation in a time series, and a measurement of the stock performance in the energy sector can help one understand the pattern of fluctuations within this industry, as well as the factors that influence it. One of these factors could be the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to extreme volatility within the stock market in several economic sectors. It is essential to understand this regime of volatility so that robust financial strategies can be adopted to handle it. This study used stock data from the Yahoo! Finance API and data from the energy-price database from the US Energy Information Administration to conduct a comparative analysis of the volatility in the energy sector in Brazil and in the United States, as well as of the energy prices in California. The volatility in these time series were modeled using GARCH. The stock volatility regimes, both before and after COVID-19, were identified with a Markov switching model; the spillover index between the energy markets in the USA and in Brazil was evaluated with the Diebold–Yilmaz index; and the causality between the energy stock price and the energy prices was measured with the Granger causality test. The findings of this study show that (i) the volatility regime introduced by COVID-19 is still prevalent in Brazil and in the USA, (ii) the changes in the energy market in the US affect the Brazilian market significantly more than the reverse, and (iii) there is a causality relationship between the energy stock markets and the energy prices in California. These results may assist in the achievement of effective regulation and economic planning, while also supporting better market interventions. Also, acknowledging the persistent COVID-19-induced volatility can help with developing strategies for future crisis resilience.

The use of biofuels represents a promising means of achieving a sustainable future and offers considerable economic and environmental benefits. Since they are derived from organic sources, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, biofuels can mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, support local agriculture, create employment opportunities, and enhance energy security by reducing dependence on fossil fuels. However, introducing these alternative fuels to the aviation sector remains a significant challenge. Thus, it is vital to investigate the potential of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and discover how to overcome the technological obstacles to its integration into mainstream aviation to attain broader decarbonization objectives. This article seeks to contribute to a discussion about SAF by examining how it has evolved and its connections to related patents. This article is a comprehensive study of biofuel innovation, highlighting the complex relationships between academia, industry, and other stakeholders. It is hoped that the findings from this study will provide a clearer understanding of the catalysts involved in SAF innovation and provide valuable insights for policymakers, academics, and professionals in the field who are committed to shaping the trajectory of sustainable energy technologies in the future.

The purpose of this study is to propose an integrative model for evaluating the effectiveness of performance management system (PMS). This model aims to systematize the dimensions and criteria used in the literature and provide clarity in terms of evaluation possibilities. A comprehensive review of the literature was conducted to identify the dimensions, criteria, and causal relationships used in evaluating PMS effectiveness. A sample of 57 articles was analyzed using content analysis. The study established dimensions and criteria that have been neglected in the literature. The review resulted in the proposal of an integrative model for evaluating PMS effectiveness, which incorporates individual and organizational dimensions and criteria identified in the literature. It sheds light on recurrently adopted dimensions, particularly those related to individual-level phenomena, and seeks to clarify current conceptual ambiguities. This study’s originality lies in its integrative approach, which diverges from the prevailing tendencies in the field. This study provides clarity regarding the conceptual confusion surrounding ambiguous concepts and generically applied measures that hinder the drawing of certain conclusions about the effectiveness of PMS.

The academic community has witnessed a notable increase in paper publications, whereby the rapid pace at which modern society seeks information underscores the critical need for literature mapping. This study introduces an innovative automatic model for categorizing articles by subject matter using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for classification and category labeling, alongside a proposed ranking method called SSS (Scientific Significance Score) and using Z-score to select the finest papers. This paper’s use case concerns industry productivity. The key findings include the following: (1) The Decision Tree model demonstrated superior performance with an accuracy rate of 75% in classifying articles within the productivity and industry theme. (2) Through a ranking methodology based on citation count and publication date, it identified the finest papers. (3) Recent publications with higher citation counts achieved better scores. (4) The model’s sensitivity to outliers underscores the importance of addressing database imbalances, necessitating caution during training by excluding biased categories. These findings not only advance the utilization of ML models for paper classification but also lay a foundation for further research into productivity within the industry, exploring themes such as artificial intelligence, efficiency, industry 4.0, innovation, and sustainability.