Xinyu Jiang

The application of risk management strategies is a common approach in emergency response scenarios. However, scant knowledge exists regarding its utilization in the specific context of an outbreak, both theoretically and practically. This study delves into the realm of risk management during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on four key measurements: risk avoidance (RA), risk reduction (RD), risk transfer (RT), and risk retention (RR). Using 800 valid responses collected from 31 provinces across China between August 1 and September 30, 2020, this study investigates spatial disparities in individuals’ intentions towards risk management. To achieve this, an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behavior (E-TPB) is applied. The Structural Equation Model’s path analyses revealed several findings: (1) discernible spatial disparities in RR, RA, and RD intentions between large and small cities; (2) RD and RR intentions were significantly associated with attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and risk perception; (3) RA and RT intentions were significantly associated with attitude and risk perception; (4) risk perception exihibiting both direct and indirect effects on RA and RR intentions. This study contributs to the urban studies literature by extending the theoretical framework of risk management in the context of COVID-19. It enhances the measurement tools employed in the TPB model and scrutinizes spatial disparities in the adoption of preventative measures against COVID-19. The findings underscore the importance for local policymakers to consider geographical differences when formulating effective strategies for COVID-19 prevention.

With growing regional economic integration, transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters. However, the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately, especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions. This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect. A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system, and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster. The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in 2020 in Hubei Province, China. The results show the following. First, when traffic disruption costs are considered, the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before, and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country, such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone (36% of total ripple effects). Second, traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities, especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before. The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation, storage, and postal service (5 times), and processing and assembly manufacturing (4.4 times). Third, the longer the distance, the stronger traffic disruptions’ impact on interregional intermediate inputs. Thus, increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

The increasing frequency of floods is causing an increasing impact on urban communities. To identify the key influencing factors of functional loss in Chinese urban communities under floods, this paper explored the influencing factors and factor combinations through a social network analysis approach using the 265 cases of urban communities in China affected by floods collected from 2017–2021 as research data. The key influencing factors and factor combinations were identified comprehensively using multiple indicator analyses such as core-periphery structure, node centrality, and factor pairing. The analysis results showed that “road disruption”, “housing inundation”, and “power interruption” are the three most critical factors affecting the functional loss of urban communities in China under floods, followed by “residents trapped”, “enterprises flooded”, and “silt accumulation”. In addition, “road disruption–housing inundation”, “housing inundation–residents trapped”, and “road disruption–residents trapped” are the most common combinations of influencing factors.

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected enterprises worldwide. It is thus of practical significance to study the process of enterprise recovery from Covid-19. However, the research on the effects of relevant determinants of business recovery is limited. This article presents a multistate modeling framework that considers the determinants, recovery time, and transition likelihood of Chinese enterprises by the state of those enterprises as a result of the pandemic (recovery state), with the help of an accelerated failure time model. Empirical data from 750 enterprises were used to evaluate the recovery process. The results indicate that the main problems facing non-manufacturing industries are supply shortages and order cancellations. With the increase of supplies and orders, the probability of transition between different recovery states gradually increases, and the recovery time of enterprises becomes shorter. For manufacturing industries, the factors that hinder recovery are more complex. The main problems are employee panic and order cancellations in the initial stage, employee shortages in the middle stage, and raw material shortages in the full recovery stage. This study can provide a reference for enterprise recovery in the current pandemic context and help policymakers and business managers take necessary measures to accelerate recovery.

In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, China implemented the most stringent and serious emergency response. To understand the effect of such an emergency response strategy on the economic system, this study proposed a simultaneous overall estimation method using intracity travel intensity data. The overall effect is represented by the difference between intracity travel intensity with and without the emergency response. Using historical data and time series analysis, we compared intracity travel intensity post China’s implementation of the emergency response with predicted intracity travel intensity without such a response. The loss rates, defined by the proportion of intracity travel intensity loss, were calculated for 360 cities within 33 provincial-level regions in China based on data availability. We found that 30 days after the emergency response, 21% of the cities saw over 80% recovery and 10% of the cities showed more than 90% recovery; 45 days after the emergency response, more than 83% of the 360 cities witnessed 80% recovery. The correlation between gross domestic production loss rate and travel intensity loss rate was studied quantitatively to demonstrate the representativeness of the intracity travel intensity loss rate. This indicator was also used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the effects on the economy. The results of this study can help us understand the economic effects caused by the early Covid-19 emergency response and the method can be a reference for fast and real-time economic loss estimation to support emergency response decision making under pandemic conditions.

COVID-19 has had a great impact on the economy, society, and people’s lives in China and globally. The production and operations of Chinese enterprises have also faced tremendous challenges. To understand the economic impact of COVID-19 on enterprises and the key affecting factors, this study adds to the literature by investigating the business recovery process of enterprises from the micro perspective. Specific attention is paid to the initial stage of business recovery. A questionnaire survey of 750 enterprises explored the impact during the pandemic period from July to September 2020. An accelerated failure time model in survival analysis was adopted to analyze the data. The results show that the manufacturing industry is mainly faced by affecting factors such as enterprise ownership, employees’ panic and order cancellation on initial enterprise recovery. As for the non-manufacturing industry, more factors, including clients’ distribution, employees’ panic, raw material shortage, cash flow shortage and order cancellation, are found to be significant. Acceleration factors that estimate the effects of those covariates on acceleration/deceleration of the recovery time are presented. For instance, the acceleration factor of employees’ panic is 1.319 for non-manufacturing, which implies that, compared with enterprises where employees are less panicked, enterprises with employees obviously panicked will recover 1.319 times slower at any quantile of probability of recovery time. This study provides a scientific reference for the post-pandemic recovery of enterprises, and can support the formulation of government policies and enterprise decisions.