Ibrahim Bakirtas

This study re-assesses the root causes of inflation through an innovative hybrid analytical framework integrating deep neural networks, random forest algorithms, and causal inference (DoWhy) within the Quantity-Theoretical Inflation Theory, using monthly data from Turkey for the period 2003M05–2025M01. The findings reveal that inflation expectations and exchange rate fluctuations are the most influential drivers of inflation, overshadowing other variables such as money supply, real interest rates, and global oil prices. Although the exact ordering of predictors is model dependent, and the random forest assigns the leading role to the real interest rate, the signal shared across all three methodological pathways rests on expectations and the exchange rate. While money supply growth aligns with monetarist theory and remains a consistent source of upward price pressure, its impact is often mediated through expectations and currency depreciation. Causal estimates confirm that Turkey’s persistent inflation is fueled not just by macroeconomic imbalances but by the erosion of policy credibility and weak anchoring of expectations, particularly after 2017. The study contributes methodologically by introducing AI-powered modeling to inflation analysis in emerging markets, and empirically by validating the central role of expectations and exchange rate pass-through in a structurally fragile, import-dependent economy. The results suggest that sustainable price stability in Turkey hinges on reestablishing central bank independence, adopting orthodox inflation targeting, and regaining public trust through consistent and transparent communication.

Despite the rapid growth of scholarly and policy interest in the middle-income trap (MIT) since its formal introduction in 2007, the literature remains fragmented, with limited efforts to systematically map its intellectual structure or thematic evolution. This study presents the first comprehensive bibliometric analysis of MIT research, covering 385 publications indexed in the Web of Science (2009–2025). Using a triangulated methodology that integrates Bibexcel for performance metrics, VOSviewer for co-authorship and keyword network mapping, and SciMAT for longitudinal thematic evolution, the study identifies the core trajectories, knowledge clusters, and strategic shifts that have shaped the field over time. Results reveal a dynamic research domain increasingly grounded in themes such as structural transformation, innovation capacity, institutional reform, and human capital development, with strong regional concentration in Asia and Latin America. Thematic evolution analysis demonstrates both conceptual maturation and persistent fragmentation, as the core notion of the MIT remains under-theorized and variably defined. By exposing the field’s structural dynamics, dominant actors, and conceptual gaps, this study offers a critical roadmap for scholars, while providing policymakers with a consolidated view of the research frontiers most relevant to long-run growth and developmental upgrading.

In seven decades of the multiparty democracy period, Turkey has experienced four military coups. Even though the coups are thought to be a cold war phenomenon in the literature, they are still relevant. The failed coup attempt in 2016 reminds us that the military coup is still a critical issue in Turkish democracy and the economy. Interestingly, there is not an adequate amount of empirical research on the political economy of Turkey?s military coup experience. This study?s motivation is to provide empirical evidence for the economic growth-coup nexus literature with a core focus on Turkey, which is a remarkable case in many aspects. For this purpose, we extend an open-economy Cobb-Douglas production function with coups and use the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) method for the period 1950 to 2014. According to the study?s empirical findings, coup d??tats negatively affect real GDP in Turkey. Through structural reforms, Turkey should strengthen its democratic institutions to prevent such antidemocratic attempts.

The main purpose of this study is to determine the possible long run impacts of renewable energy supply on the welfare cost of premature deaths caused by air pollution in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries during 1990-2016 by using dynamic panel data techniques. The long run elasticity results showed that the increasing supply of renewable energy sources reduces the welfare cost of air pollution. Empirical findings revealed that clean energy should not just seen as a sustainable energy source but also considered as an efficient way to struggle with possible negative externalities of pollution.

Even though the economic growth and the increased agricultural production bring welfare increment, they could also load significant environmental costs to society. This study aims to investigate the existence of agriculture-induced EKC hypothesis in 47 developing countries during 1976–2017 by using dynamic panel data estimators. According to the long-run findings of the DOLS and the FMOLS estimators, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship that exists between income and the CO₂ emissions, while agricultural production has a negative impact on environmental quality. In addition, the PMG estimator is also employed for robustness check. Likewise the DOLS and the FMOLS findings, the long-run results of the PMG estimator also support the existence of agriculture-induced EKC for developing countries. The empirical findings of this study provide stimulus results of policy makers to re-consider their current production infrastructure of agricultural sector to achieve sustainable development.