Shihua Ren

China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and as a result, poses severe challenges both to human health and climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving carbon neutrality requires thorough analyses of mechanisms driving the coal sector’s transition. This study employs a structural model to investigate the transmission pathways through/by which the “dual carbon” goals influence the coal industry, using a policy text quantification approach to assess specific carbon reduction measures. Findings reveal that the impact of the “dual carbon” target on the coal industry operates through multiple pathways. Carbon reduction policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social and economic factors, energy-saving measures, and alternative energy development, all of which indirectly affect coal supply. Notably, the pathway from coal demand to coal supply shows a high path coefficient of 1.121, far surpassing the path coefficient from factor input to coal supply, measured at 0.169. This highlights coal demand as the pivotal intermediary variable in determining the “dual carbon” target’s impact on the coal industry. While current technologies and alternative energy sources have limited immediate effects on coal supply, they hold significant potential as transformative factors in the future.

Coal industry; digitization; digital economy; digital technology of coal

Carbon neutrality is one of the most important goals for the Chinese government to mitigate climate change. Coal has long been China’s dominant energy source and accounts for more than 70–80% of its carbon emissions. Reducing the share of coal power supply and increasing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in coal power plants are the two primary efforts to reduce carbon emissions in China. However, even as energy and water consumed in CCUS are offset by reduced energy consumption from green energy transitions, there may be tradeoffs from the carbon–energy–water (CEW) nexus perspective. This paper developed a metric and tool known as the “Assessment Tool for Portfolios of Coal power production under Carbon neutral goals” (ATPCC) to evaluate the tradeoffs in China’s coal power industry from both the CEW nexus and financial profits perspectives. While most CEW nexus frameworks and practical tools focus on the CEW nexus perturbation from either an external factor or one sector from CEW, ATPCC considers the coupling effect from C(Carbon) and E(Energy) in the CEW nexus when integrating two main carbon mitigation policies. ATPCC also provides an essential systematic life cycle CEW nexus assessment tool for China’s coal power industry under carbon-neutral constraints. By applying ATPCC across different Chinese coal industry development portfolios, we illustrated potential strategies to reach a zero-emission electricity industry fueled by coal. When considering the sustainability of China’s coal industry in the future, we further demonstrate that reduced water and energy consumption results from the energy transition are not enough to offset the extra water and energy consumption in the rapid adoption of CCUS efforts. However, we acknowledge that the increased energy and water consumption is not a direct correlation to CCUS application growth nor a direct negative correlation to carbon emissions. The dual effort to implement CCUS and reduce electricity generation from coal needs a thorough understanding and concise strategy. We found that economic loss resulting from coal reduction can be compensated by the carbon market. Carbon trading has the potential to be the dominant profit-making source for China’s coal power industry. Additionally, the financial profits in China’s coal power industry are not negatively correlated to carbon emissions. Balance between the carbon market and the coal industry would lead to more economic revenues. The scenario with the most rapid reduction in coal power production combined with CCUS would be more sustainable from the CEW nexus perspective. However, when economic revenues are considered, the scenario with a moderately paced energy transition and CCUS effort would be more sustainable. Nevertheless, the ATPCC allows one to customize coal production scenarios according to the desired electricity production and emission reduction, thus making it appropriate not only for use in China but also in other coal-powered regions that face high-energy demands and carbon neutrality goals.

Coal industry; global industrial chain; energy supply chain; energy security; energy supply and demand

The resources of tar-rich coal in Western China are abundant and are a...

Seven scenarios were designed to study the national environmental benefits of ULE in coal-fired power plants (CPPs), ULE in industrial coal burning (ICB) and NH₃ emission reduction by using the GEOS-Chem model. The results showed that although the CPPs have achieved the ULE transformation target, the PM_2.5 concentration across the country has decreased by 4.8% (1.4 μg/m³). Due to the complex non-linear chemical competition mechanism among nitrate and sulfate, the average concentration of nitrate in the country has increased by 1.5% (0.1 μg/m³), which has reduced the environmental benefits of the power plant emission reduction. If the ULE technology is applied to the ICB to further reduce NO_x and SO₂, although the PM_2.5 concentration can be reduced by 10.1% (2.9 μg/m³), the concentration of nitrate will increase by 2.7% (0.2 μg/m³). Based on the CPPs-ULE, NH₃ emissions reduced by 30% and 50% can significantly reduce the concentration of ammonium and nitrate, so that the PM_2.5 concentration is decreased by 11.5% (3.3 μg/m³) and 16.5% (4.7 μg/m³). Similarly, based on the CPPs-ICB-ULE, NH₃ emissions can be reduced by 30% and 50% and the PM_2.5 concentration reduced by 15.6% (4.4 μg/m³) and 20.3% (5.8 μg/m³). The CPPs and ICB use the ULE technology to reduce NO_x and SO₂, thereby reducing the concentration of ammonium and sulfate, causing the PM_2.5 concentration to decline, and NH₃ reduction is mainly achieved through reducing the concentration of ammonium and nitrate to reduce the concentration of PM_2.5. In order to better reduce the concentration of PM_2.5, NO_x, SO₂ and NH₃ emission reduction control measures should be comprehensively considered in different regions of China. By comprehensively considering the economic cost and environmental benefits of ULE in ICB and NH₃ emission reduction, an optimal haze control scheme can be determined.