Yanyan Wang

Accurately quantifying carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDTs) is crucial for developing effective transportation emission reduction strategies. In this study, we adopted a bottom–up approach and, in conjunction with the “International Vehicle Emissions” (IVE) model, constructed a high-resolution 1 × 1 km CO₂ emission inventory for the urban area of Kunming, China. Using data from 1.24 million track points collected from 5996 heavy-duty diesel trucks, we implemented a map matching algorithm based on a simplified hidden Markov model (HMM) to efficiently process large-scale GPS data. Furthermore, we improved upon traditional spatial allocation methods by dynamically integrating track point density with static road network density. The results indicate that although higher driving speeds correspond to lower CO₂ emission rates, heavy-duty diesel trucks typically operate within an observed speed range of 40–60 km/h, with an average emission factor of approximately 500 g/km. Vehicles compliant with the “National III” emission standards remain the primary source of CO₂ emissions in this region. Correlation analysis reveals a significant positive relationship (p < 0.01) between emissions from heavy-duty diesel trucks and both traffic volume and mileage. Notably, daytime vehicle restriction policies led to a temporal redistribution of emissions rather than a net reduction in emissions; this resulted in increased activity levels of heavy-duty diesel trucks at night, leading to a surge in nighttime emissions. In terms of spatial distribution, the “dual-density” allocation method proposed in this study more accurately captured emission hotspots, revealing that CO₂ emissions are primarily concentrated in the southeastern part of the city—a distribution pattern largely influenced by the city’s industrial layout.

For diesel engines, accurate prediction of NO_x (Nitrogen Oxides) emission plays an essential role in virtual NO_x sensor development and engine design under situations of actual road driving. However, due to the randomness and uncertainty in the driving process of diesel vehicles, it is difficult to make predictions about NO_x emissions. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes differential models for noise reductions of NO_x emissions in time series. First, according to the internal fluctuation of time series, use SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) to reduce the noises of the original time series; second, use ICEEMDAN (Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise) to decompose the noise-reducing data into several relatively stable subsequences; third, use the sample entropy to calculate the complexity of each subsequence, and divide the sequences into high-frequency ones and low-frequency ones; finally, use GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) to complete the prediction of high-frequency sequences and SVR (Support Vector Regression) for the prediction of low-frequency sequences. To obtain the final models, integrate the prediction results of the subsequences. Make comparisons with five single models, SSA single-processing models, and ICEEMDAN single-processing models. The experimental results show that the proposed model can predict the instantaneous NO_x emissions of diesel engines better than the single model and the model processed by SSA, and the differentiated model can effectively improve the execution speed of the model.