Valéria Perim da Cunha
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Research Interests
Valéria Perim da Cunha has a total of 5 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Ary Henrique Morais de Oliveira
Universidade Federal do Tocantins
1 shared publication - David Gabriel de Barros Franco
Universidade Federal do Tocantins
1 shared publication - Glenda Michele Botelho
Graduate Program in Intellectual Property and Information Technology Transfer - PROFNIT, Federal University of Tocantins, Palmas 77001-090, TO, Brazil
1 shared publication - Lorena Dias Monteiro
Medicine Course, State University of Tocantins, Palmas 77020-122, TO, Brazil
1 shared publication - Rafael da Costa Silva
Universidade de São Paulo 1
1 shared publication
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 31 December 2021
- Published by MDPI AG in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Vol. 19 (1) , 415
Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region
This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen’s disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen’s disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen’s disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen’s disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen’s disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.
- 31 December 2021
- Published by MDPI AG in International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Vol. 19 (1) , 415
Open AccessApplication of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen’s Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region
This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen’s disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen’s disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen’s disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen’s disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen’s disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.