Chris Gabriele

North Pacific humpback whales are a celebrated conservation success, rebounding from extensive commercial whaling. Yet they remain vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, a multifaceted stressor that can exacerbate existing threats. During 2013–2016, a Northeast Pacific marine heatwave severely reduced forage availability in their feeding grounds, concurrent with diminished whale recruitment and increased mortality. We analyzed photo‐identification data of whales that visited the Main Hawaiian Islands from 2002 to 2023 to estimate apparent survival, abundance, and distinct population segment (DPS) growth rates. Survival was high prior to (0.987; SE = 0.003), low during (0.684; SE = 0.022), and higher, but still reduced, after (0.956; SE = 0.006) the heatwave. Annual breeding season abundance estimates averaged 11,617 (SD = 1914) and included a striking 37% decrease from 2014/15 to 2021/22. While the average annual DPS growth rate was stable (1.00) over 20 breeding seasons, shorter periods included high growth (1.09) and steep decline (0.783). Depressed survival and abundance estimates may signal lingering heatwave effects or adjustment to current carrying capacity. Climate change predictions include more frequent, intense, and longer heatwaves; thus, this DPS serves as a crucial ecosystem‐health indicator. Continued research and monitoring are essential to support resiliency against future climate perturbations.

Given recent declines in North Pacific humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) reproductive output and calf survival, there is additional urgency to better understand how mother–calf pairs allocate energy resources across their migratory cycle. Here, unoccupied aerial system (UAS; or drone) photogrammetry was used to quantify the body size and condition (BC) of humpback whales on their Hawaiʻi (HI) breeding and Southeast Alaska (SEAK) feeding grounds. Between 2018 and 2022, we collected 2410 measurements of 1659 individuals. Rates of change in body volume (BV) and length (BL) were quantified using 803 repeat measurements of 275 individuals. On average, HI mothers lost 0.106 m³ or 96.84 kg day⁻¹ while fasting, equivalent to 2641 MJ day⁻¹ or 830 kg of krill and 424 kg of Pacific herring daily. HI calf BV and BL increased by 0.035 m³ and 2.6 cm day⁻¹, respectively. In SEAK, maternal BV increased by 0.015 m³ or 14.54 kg day⁻¹ (367 MJ day⁻¹), while calf BV and BL increased by 0.039 m³ and 0.93 cm day⁻¹, respectively. Maternal investment in calf growth correlated with both female BL and BC, with larger females producing larger, faster‐growing calves. Finally, using 330 measurements from 156 females, we quantified differences in BC increase over four feeding seasons. Lactating females exhibited an average BC increase of 6.10%, half that of unclassified females (13.51%) and six times lower than pregnant females (37%). These findings represent novel insights into the life history of humpback whales across their migratory cycle, providing key baseline data for bioenergetic models elucidating the effects of anthropogenic disturbance and rapidly changing ocean ecosystems. image Key points: On average, Hawaiʻi (HI) mothers lost 0.106 m³ or 96.84 kg day⁻¹, equivalent to 2641 MJ day⁻¹. Over a 60 day period, this corresponded to an estimated mean energetic cost of 158 GJ, or ≈50 tons of krill or ≈25 tons of Pacific herring, surpassing the total energetic cost of gestation estimated for humpback whales of similar length. In Southeast Alaska (SEAK), maternal body volume (BV) increased by just 0.015 m³ or 14.54 kg day⁻¹ (367 MJ day⁻¹). Further, SEAK lactating females showed the slowest rates of growth in body width and condition over a 150 day period compared to non‐lactating females. Maternal investment in calf growth correlated with both maternal length and body condition, with larger females producing larger, faster‐growing calves. In HI, however, the ratio between maternal BV lost and calf BV gained (conversion efficiency) was relatively low compared to other mammals.

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark–recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai‘i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014–2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.