Yangyan Zeng

With the proliferation of distributed energy resources, advanced metering infrastructure, and advanced communication technologies, the grid is transforming into a flexible, intelligent, and collaborative system. Short-term electric load forecasting for individual residential customers is playing an increasingly important role in the operation and planning of the future grid. Predicting the electrical load of individual households is more challenging with higher uncertainty and volatility at the household level compared to the total electrical load at the feeder and regional levels. The previous research results show that the accuracy of forecasting using machine learning and a single deep learning model is far from adequate and there is still room for improvement.

Accurate residential load forecasting is crucial for the stable operation of the energy internet, which plays a significant role in advancing sustainable development. As the construction of the energy internet progresses, the proportion of residential electricity consumption in end-use energy consumption is increasing, the peak load on the grid is growing year on year, and seasonal and regional peak power supply tensions, mainly for household electricity consumption, grow into common problems across countries. Residential load forecasting can assist utility companies in determining effective electricity pricing structures and demand response operations, thereby improving renewable energy utilization efficiency and reducing the share of thermal power generation. However, due to the randomness and uncertainty of user load data, forecasting residential load remains challenging. According to prior research, the accuracy of residential load forecasting using machine learning and deep learning methods still has room for improvement. This paper proposes an improved load-forecasting model based on a time-localized attention (TLA) mechanism integrated with LSTM, named TLA-LSTM. The model is composed of a full-text regression network, a date-attention network, and a time-point attention network. The full-text regression network consists of a traditional LSTM, while the date-attention and time-point attention networks are based on a local attention model constructed with CNN and LSTM. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that compared to standard LSTM models, the proposed method improves R² by 14.2%, reduces MSE by 15.2%, and decreases RMSE by 8.5%. These enhancements demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the TLA-LSTM model in load forecasting tasks, effectively addressing the limitations of traditional LSTM models in focusing on specific dates and time-points in user load data.

Over the next three decades, it is anticipated that China’s aging population will propel steady growth in elderly healthcare and senior care technologies. With its broad consumer base, long industrial chain, and variety of needs, the silver economy will provide the digital healthcare sector with a lot of prospects and enhance the well-being of the elderly while also promoting the sustainable development of the socio-economic environment. Research on digital healthcare services for the elderly is gaining traction in the digital economy era, although thorough studies in this area are still very uncommon. Therefore, in order to investigate potential future trends in digital healthcare services from the perspective of the silver economy, this research uses the visualization tool CiteSpace6.3.R1 to perform descriptive statistics, clustering analysis, and co-occurrence analysis on 639 relevant papers. The findings indicate that although China’s research in this field began later than that of other nations, it offers distinct benefits and enormous potential. Due to the irreversibility of population aging, digital health management in the context of the silver economy is likely to become a focal point of future digital society research. Innovation in the field of digital healthcare is being driven by the proper integration of advanced digital technologies like artificial intelligence and big data. In conclusion, this paper develops a research paradigm for the administration of digital healthcare services from the standpoint of the silver economy. This study offers cutting-edge insights and theoretical references, giving academics insightful advice on current research trends and possible future approaches.

This study provides an evidential reasoning method for water quality evaluation based on Gaussian distribution to handle the problem of comprehensive water quality evaluation for a region across a period (multiple sections and multiple time points). The method turns the collection of observed water quality indicator values into a probability distribution of water quality grades by using the Gaussian distribution to compute the confidence assessment of water quality grades over one period. It eliminates the subjectivity involved in determining confidence levels and the problem of information loss during data fusion that arises with conventional approaches. The probability distribution of each assessment grade is then determined by repeatedly synthesizing evidence of the same water quality grade using the improved evidential reasoning synthesis rule. To avoid the subjectivity included in experience-based weight settings, principal component analysis (PCA) is utilized to calculate the weights of water quality indicators based on contribution rates and load coefficients. In the end, utility theory is presented to modify the discrete probability distribution of precise numerical expressions, offering thorough results for the evaluation of water quality and facilitating the comparison of various water quality grades. Using the Xiangjiang River Basin as a case study, the proposed evaluation method is contrasted with popular techniques for assessing water quality, including the Single-Factor Evaluation Method, the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, and the Evidential Reasoning Comprehensive Evaluation Method. The findings suggest that the evidence reasoning approach for evaluating water quality that is based on Gaussian distribution is more rational, accurate, and scientific. Additionally, empirical studies on the annual water quality trends in various regions, the upstream, midstream, and downstream trends, and the water quality trends during wet and dry periods are conducted using this method to assess and analyze changes in water quality in the Xiangjiang River Basin during the “11th Five-Year Plan” and “12th Five-Year Plan” periods. The analysis findings demonstrate that, even if the rate of progress has slowed, the Xiangjiang River Basin’s overall water quality has been steadily improving since management and protection measures were put in place. This shows that the preventive and control efforts implemented in the “11th Five-Year Plan” and “12th Five-Year Plan” periods were successful; nevertheless, carrying out the current tactics might only have a limited impact. As a result, more advanced and creative approaches are required to encourage the ongoing enhancement of the water quality in the Xiangjiang River Basin.

The scientific and reasonable evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources is of guiding significance for solving the issues of water resource shortages and pollution control. It is also an important method for realizing the sustainable development of water resources. Aiming at an evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources, an evaluation model based on the cloud model theory and evidential reasoning approach is studied. First, based on the existing indicators, a water resources evaluation index system based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model is constructed, and a classification method of carrying capacity grade is designed. The cloud model theory is used to realize the transformation between the measured value of indicators and the degree of correlation. Second, to obtain the weight of the evaluation index, the weight method of the index weights model based on the entropy weight method and evidential reasoning approach is proposed. Then, the reliability distribution function of the evaluation index and the graded probability distribution of the carrying capacity of water resources are obtained by an evidential reasoning approach. Finally, the evaluation method of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed, and specific steps are provided. The proposed method is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity for Hunan Province, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in the present study. This paper applies this method of the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2019. It is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province belongs to III~V, which is between the critical state and the strong carrying capacity state. The carrying capacity of the province’s water resources is basically on the rise. This shows that the carrying capacity of water resources in Hunan Province is in good condition, and corresponding protective measures should be taken to continue the current state.