Nail’ F. Nizametdinov

Global warming, which is mainly linked to CO₂ increase, has led to a growing interest in assessing carbon conservation in forest biomass. Despite evidence that treelines have advanced by hundreds of meters, knowledge of associated stand biomass changes is insufficient for comprehensive estimation of their role in carbon sequestration. Traditionally, the biomass assessment is based on data collected by field measurements. While this approach provides accurate data for local sites, it cannot be extrapolated properly to larger areas. A more appropriate approach would be to combine field measurements with remote sensing methods. We used data obtained by tree morphometry and annual ring measurements, model-based biomass estimation, processing of laser scanning results, and satellite imagery to model and calculate changes in stand above-ground biomass (AGB) since 1900 at treeline ecotone in Altai and Western Sayan. We developed simulations to predict AGB changes over the coming four decades in these regions. Our findings revealed that the upslope shift of the treeline ecotone by 58–86 m of altitude over the past century was accompanied by an exponential increase in AGB of stands within the 200–400 m forest–tundra transition zone. This resulted in an AGB increment of 120–139 tons per 100 m of treeline. We expect that stand AGB at the treeline ecotone will become 2.3–3.3 times bigger by 2060. All exposures must be considered when estimating stand AGB within treeline ecotones because there are significant differences in treeline elevation, tree-dominant proportions, and stand structure on different slopes.

The upper treeline ecotone is a global and typically climate-dependent phenomenon. Its elevation is usually coupled with the thermal limitations of tree growth. The air temperature rise connected with global warming is assumed as the main cause of treeline upslope shifts in the last century. It has been found that the treeline elevation also correlates with the distance from the coastline and the aridity or continentality of the climate or the mass elevation effect. However, previous and contemporary publications have not explained how the upper treeline position directly couples with climate parameters. Often, this has been restricted by a lack of climate measurements and spatial data. In our study, we obtained data from 339 regional weather stations for 1964–1974 and interpolated them to Altay and Western Sayan using regional DEMs and a specially developed regression model. Moreover, we semiautomatically identified the elevational position of the upper open forest boundary (OFB) (crown closure > 10%) on the slopes of 30 mountains in Altay and Western Sayan in 1960 and 2020. We took into account the slope aspect and edaphic constraints. The obtained data allowed us to undertake a regression analysis of the dependence of the OFB elevation on climatic parameters. As a result, we found that, in the 1960s, at OFB elevations rising from the outer to the inner parts of the study area to approximately 500–700 m, the summer air temperature and precipitation linearly decreased, but the summer sunshine duration increased. In the multiple regression analysis, including the climatic parameters as independent variables and the OFB elevation as a dependent variable, significant relations were found only for the combination of air temperature and sunshine duration. We assume that the OFB elevation is determined not only by the air temperature but also by the direct solar irradiation level, changing with latitude and cloudiness. We also found that the ratio between the OFB elevation on the northern and southern slopes varied with respect to latitude. The spatial analysis of OFB shifts in 1960–2020 revealed significant differences in its value in the central (80–90 m) and outer parts of the study area (110–130 m). We suppose that the OFB advance over the past 60 years has local specificity associated with the peculiarities of the climatic changes (summer temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and sunshine duration increase) in different parts of Altay and Western Sayan. Our results highlight the need to clearly determine climatic parameters when forecasting woody vegetation reactions to future climate changes.

Altitudinal forest limits are typically climatically dependent, such that increasing temperatures connected to global warming are causing upslope shifts in treeline ecotones worldwide. However, at the local and regional levels, the degree of such a response is dependent on differences in climate, topography and soil features. In recent decades, attempts have been undertaken to estimate tree stand dynamics with remote sensing methods, but their resolution is still too coarse for a precise assessment of stand structural changes, and requires ground-truthing, which is not possible without historical data collected on a single-tree level. We used aerial photos (1962) and satellite images (2021) in combination with historical inventory data to investigate changes in open forest positions at different spatial scales at the eastern macroslope of the Polar Urals over the past 60 years. Additionally, obtained remote sensing data were validated on a single-slope level using tree crown size estimations. Our investigations showed that since 1960 up to present day, the total crown coverage increased from 6.9 to 22.1% within the test polygon. A highly spatially variable upslope advance in an open forest boundary was identified from 1.7 up to 7.1 m in altitude per decade. We revealed that the rate of tree stand transformations was to a great extent depended on the stand density in the 1960s, soil substrate type, moisture regime, slope aspect and inclination. Our results highlighted the necessity to consider the abovementioned factors when trying to predict climate-induced tree distributional responses in subarctic mountain regions.