S. Janifer Jabin Jui

Wheat dominates the Australian grain production market and accounts for 10–15% of the world’s 100 million tonnes annual global wheat trade. Accurate wheat yield prediction is critical to satisfying local consumption and increasing exports regionally and globally to meet human food security. This paper incorporates remote satellite-based information in a wheat-growing region in South Australia to estimate the yield by integrating the kernel ridge regression (KRR) method coupled with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and the grey wolf optimisation (GWO). The hybrid model, ‘GWO-CEEMDAN-KRR,’ employing an initial pool of 23 different satellite-based predictors, is seen to outperform all the benchmark models and all the feature selection (ant colony, atom search, and particle swarm optimisation) methods that are implemented using a set of carefully screened satellite variables and a feature decomposition or CEEMDAN approach. A suite of statistical metrics and infographics comparing the predicted and measured yield shows a model prediction error that can be reduced by ~20% by employing the proposed GWO-CEEMDAN-KRR model. With the metrics verifying the accuracy of simulations, we also show that it is possible to optimise the wheat yield to achieve agricultural profits by quantifying and including the effects of satellite variables on potential yield. With further improvements in the proposed methodology, the GWO-CEEMDAN-KRR model can be adopted in agricultural yield simulation that requires remote sensing data to establish the relationships between crop health, yield, and other productivity features to support precision agriculture.

Crop yield forecasting is critical for enhancing food security and ensuring an appropriate food supply. It is critical to complete this activity with high precision at the regional and national levels to facilitate speedy decision-making. Tea is a big cash crop that contributes significantly to economic development, with a market of USD 200 billion in 2020 that is expected to reach over USD 318 billion by 2025. As a developing country, Bangladesh can be a greater part of this industry and increase its exports through its tea yield and production with favorable climatic features and land quality. Regrettably, the tea yield in Bangladesh has not increased significantly since 2008 like many other countries, despite having suitable climatic and land conditions, which is why quantifying the yield is imperative. This study developed a novel spatiotemporal hybrid DRS–RF model with a dragonfly optimization (DR) algorithm and support vector regression (S) as a feature selection approach. This study used satellite-derived hydro-meteorological variables between 1981 and 2020 from twenty stations across Bangladesh to address the spatiotemporal dependency of the predictor variables for the tea yield (Y). The results illustrated that the proposed DRS–RF hybrid model improved tea yield forecasting over other standalone machine learning approaches, with the least relative error value (11%). This study indicates that integrating the random forest model with the dragonfly algorithm and SVR-based feature selection improves prediction performance. This hybrid approach can help combat food risk and management for other countries.