Lucas K. Johnson

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train the model. Many spatial CV methodologies have been proposed to address this by forcing models to extrapolate spatially when predicting the assessment set. However, to date there exists little guidance on which methods yield the most accurate estimates of model performance. We conducted simulations to compare model performance estimates produced by five common CV methods fit to spatially structured data. We found spatial CV approaches generally improved upon resubstitution and V-fold CV estimates, particularly when approaches which combined assessment sets of spatially conjunct observations with spatial exclusion buffers. To facilitate use of these techniques, we introduce the `spatialsample` package which provides tooling for performing spatial CV as part of the broader tidymodels modeling framework.

Novel plant communities reshape landscapes and pose challenges for land cover classification and mapping that can constrain research and stewardship efforts. In the US Northeast, emergence of low-statured woody vegetation, or shrublands, instead of secondary forests in post-agricultural landscapes is well documented by field studies, but poorly understood from a landscape perspective, which limits the ability to systematically study and manage these lands. To address gaps in classification/mapping of low-statured cover types where they have been historically rare, we developed models to predict shrubland distributions at 30 m resolution across New York State (NYS), using a stacked ensemble combining a random forest, gradient boosting machine, and artificial neural network to integrate remote sensing of structural (airborne LIDAR) and optical (satellite imagery) properties of vegetation cover. We first classified a 1 m canopy height model (CHM), derived from a patchwork of available LIDAR coverages, to define shrubland presence/absence. Next, these non-contiguous maps were used to train a model ensemble based on temporally segmented imagery to predict shrubland probability for the entire study landscape (NYS). Approximately 2.5% of the CHM coverage area was classified as shrubland. Models using Landsat predictors trained on the classified CHM were effective at identifying shrubland (test set AUC = 0.893, real-world AUC = 0.904), in discriminating between shrub/young forest and other cover classes, and produced qualitatively sensible maps, even when extending beyond the original training data. After ground-truthing, we expect these shrubland maps and models will have many research and stewardship applications including wildlife conservation, invasive species mitigation and natural climate solutions. Our results suggest that incorporation of airborne LiDAR, even from a discontinuous patchwork of coverages, can improve land cover classification of historically rare but increasingly prevalent shrubland habitats across broader areas.

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) provides valuable information about the carbon cycle, carbon sink monitoring, and understanding of climate change factors. Remote sensing data coupled with machine learning models have been increasingly used for forest AGB estimation over local and regional extents. Landsat series provide a 50-year data archive, which is a valuable source for historical mapping over large areas. As such, this paper proposed a machine learning-based workflow for historical AGB estimation and its change analysis from 2001 to 2019 for the New York State’s forests using Landsat historical imagery, airborne LiDAR, and forest plot data. As the object-based image analysis (OBIA) is able to incorporate spectral, contextual, and textural features into the regression model, the proposed method utilizes an OBIA approach and a random forest (RF) regression model implemented on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Results demonstrated that there is a considerable decrease of 983.79 × 10⁶ Mg/ha in the AGB of deciduous forests from 2001 to 2006, followed by an increase of 618.28 × 10⁶ Mg/ha from 2006 to 2011, continued with an increase of 229.12 × 10⁶ Mg/ha of deciduous forests from 2011–2016. Finally, the results demonstrated a slight change in AGB from 2016 to 2019. The transferability of the proposed framework provides a practical solution for monitoring forests in other states or even on a national scale.

Estimating forest AGB at large scales and fine spatial resolutions has become increasingly important for greenhouse gas accounting, monitoring, and verification efforts to mitigate climate change. Airborne LiDAR is highly valuable for modeling attributes of forest structure including AGB, yet most LiDAR collections take place at local or regional scales covering irregular, non-contiguous footprints, resulting in a patchwork of different landscape segments at various points in time. Here, as part of a statewide forest carbon assessment for New York State (USA), we addressed common obstacles in leveraging a LiDAR patchwork for AGB mapping at landscape scales, including selection of training data, the investigation of regional or coverage specific patterns in prediction error, and map agreement with field inventory across multiple scales. Three machine learning algorithms and an ensemble model were trained with FIA field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and topographic, climatic and cadastral geodata. Using a strict set of plot selection criteria, 801 FIA plots were selected with co-located point clouds drawn from a patchwork of 17 leaf-off LiDAR coverages (2014-2019). Our ensemble model was used to produce 30 m AGB prediction surfaces within a predictor-defined area of applicability (98% of LiDAR coverage), and the resulting AGB maps were compared with FIA plot-level and areal estimates at multiple scales of aggregation. Our model was overall accurate (% RMSE 22-45%; MAE 11.6-29.4 Mg ha$^{-1}$; ME 2.4-6.3 Mg ha$^{-1}$), explained 73-80% of field-observed variation, and yielded estimates that were consistent with FIA's design-based estimates (89% of estimates within FIA's 95% CI). We share practical solutions to challenges faced in using spatiotemporal patchworks of LiDAR to meet growing needs for AGB mapping in support of applications in forest carbon accounting and ecosystem.