Yinghui Ye

The middle reaches of the West Liaohe River Basin, a typical semi-arid to semi-humid transition and agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China, exhibit high ecological sensitivity, low resilience, and pronounced fragility. Despite growing concerns, existing studies in this region lack a comprehensive assessment paradigm that effectively couples inherent ecological attributes with nonlinear predictive modeling. To fill this gap, we developed an integrative framework that innovatively combined the SRP conceptual model with a stacking ensemble learning technique. This coupling is methodologically novel because it moves beyond linear assumptions, enables the detection of complex nonlinear response surfaces, and establishes a seamless analytical chain from historical evaluation to future projection. By selecting 13 indicators, including topography, climate, soil, vegetation, and socio-economic factors, the weight was determined by the comprehensive application of the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, and the ecological fragility of the middle reaches of the West Liaohe River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was evaluated at multiple scales. The spatial differentiation driving factors were analyzed using a geographic detector. Therefore, an Ensemble Learning Regression model was used to simulate and predict the ecological fragility pattern in 2030. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the ecological fragility of the study area showed a decreasing trend overall, with the Ecological Vulnerability Synthetical Index (EVSI) decreasing from 3.48 to 2.68, and the spatial pattern gradually shifting from “high in the northwest, low in the southeast” to “overall stability, local optimization.” The spatial agglomeration of ecological fragility gradually weakened, indicating that high-fragility areas tend to disperse and low-fragility areas expand in contiguous areas, and the ecosystem structure tends to develop towards equilibrium. The driving mechanism shows an evolution characteristic from “soil erosion dominated” to “biological abundance dominated,” with the impact of climate factors first increasing and then stabilizing, and the direct pressure from human activities continuously weakening. Under the assumption that historical trends continue, the ensemble learning model projects that by 2030, the ecological vulnerability pattern will be dominated by Mild and Moderate levels, with the area of extremely vulnerable regions significantly reduced to 0.36%. This study verified the applicability of the SRP model in transitional river basins, and the constructed “evaluation-driving mechanism-prediction” framework can provide a scientific basis for the ecological protection and adaptive management of the West Liaohe River Basin and provide a methodological reference for ecological fragility research in similar areas. However, limitations persist: the indicator system and weight assignment are subject to inherent subjectivity, and the 2030 scenario projection based on the Stacking ensemble learning model relies on the BAU (Business-As-Usual) assumption, which fails to account for abrupt climate extremes or major policy shifts. Future studies should incorporate multi-scenario constraints to reduce predictive uncertainty.

The assimilation of remote sensing data into mechanistic models of crop growth has become an available method for estimating yield. The objective of this study was to explore an effective assimilation approach for estimating maize grain protein content and yield using a canopy remote sensing data and crop growth model. Based on two years of field experiment data, the remote sensing inversion model using assimilation intermediate variables, namely leaf area index (LAI) and leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA), was constructed with an R² greater than 0.80 and a low root-mean-square error (RMSE). The different data assimilation approaches showed that when the LAI and LNA variables were used together in the assimilation process (V_LAI+LNA), better accuracy was achieved for LNA estimations than the assimilation process using single variables of LAI or LNA (V_LAI or V_LNA). Similar differences in estimation accuracy were found in the maize yield and grain protein content (GPC) simulations. When the LAI and LNA were both intermediate variables in the assimilation process, the estimation accuracy of the yield and GPC were better than that of the assimilation process with only one variable. In summary, these results indicate that two physiological and biochemical parameters of maize retrieved from hyperspectral data can be combined with the crop growth model through the assimilation method, which provides a feasible method for improving the estimation accuracy of maize LAI, LNA, GPC and yield.

Soil nitrogen (N) content plays a vital role in agriculture and biogeochemical processes, ranging from the N fertilization management for intensive agricultural production to the patterns of N cycling in agroecological systems. While proximal sensing in laboratory settings can achieve ideal soil N estimation accuracy, the estimation and mapping by using remote sensing methods in a large spatial scale diplays low ability. A new hyperspectral imager with 166 spectral channels, the ZY1-02D, makes possible the detection of subtle but important spectral features of soil. This study aimed at exploring the capability of the ZY1-02D to estimate and map the topsoil N content of the black soil-covered farmlands in northeast China. To this aim, 646 soil samples from study sites were collected, processed, spectrally and geochemically measured for the soil N sensitive bands detection and partial least squares regression (PLSR) calibration and validation. The sensitive bands detection results showed an appealing regularity of the variability and stable tendency of the soil N sensitive spectral bands with the change of the sample size. Based on this, we compared the estimation capacity of the models developed with the full wavelength spectra and the models developed with the sensitive bands. The estimation based on ZY1-02D full wavelength spectral reflectance were robust, with R² of 0.64 in validation. Further, the results of model developed with the sensitive bands showed better validation accuracy with R² of 0.66 and were applied to create a map of topsoil N content of farmlands in the northeast China black soil area. The results demonstrated that sensitive bands modelling could enhance the accuracy of the estimation and simplify model, and what is more, showed the ideal capability of ZY1-02D for soil N content estimation at the regional scale.