Yiwei Zhang

As a common geological hazard, debris flow is widely distributed around the world. Meanwhile, due to the influence of many factors such as geology, geomorphology and climate, the occurrence frequency and main inducing factors are different in different places. Therefore, the evaluation of debris flow sensitivity can provide a very important theoretical basis for disaster prevention and control. In this research, 43 debris flow gullies in Changping District, Beijing were cataloged and studied through field surveys and the 3S technology (GIS (Geography Information Systems), GPS (Global Positioning Systems), RS (Remote Sensing)). Eleven factors, including elevation, slope, plane curvature, profile curvature, roundness, geomorphic information entropy, TWI, SPI, TCI, NDVI and rainfall, were selected to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system. The watershed unit is directly related to the development and activities of debris flow, which can fully reflect the geomorphic and geological environment of debris flow. Therefore, the watershed unit was selected as the basic mapping unit to establish four evaluation models, namely ACA–PCA–FR (Analytic Hierarchy Process–Principal Component Analysis–Frequency Ratio), FR (Frequency Ratio), SVM (Support Vector Machines) and LR (Logistic Regression). In other words, this research evaluates debris flow susceptibility by comparingit with two traditional weight methods (ACA–PCA–FR and FR) and two machine learning methods (SVM and LR). The results show that the SVM evaluation model is superior to the other three models, and thevalueofthe area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) is 0.889 from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). It verifies that the SVM model has strong adaptability to small sample data. The study was divided into five regions, which were very low, low, moderate, high and very high, accounting for 22.31%, 25.04%, 17.66%, 18.85% and 16.14% of the total study area, respectively, by SVM model. The results obtained in this researchagree with the actual survey results, and can provide theoretical help for disaster prevention and reduction projects.

The temporary or permanent river blocking event caused by mass movement usually occurs on steep terrain. With the increase of mountain population and land use pressure and the construction of water conservancy and hydropower projects, river blocking events have gradually attracted people’s attention and understanding. The area in this study is affected by strong tectonic activity in the Jinsha River suture zone and the rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. In the past 6000 years, there have been at least five obvious river blocking events in the reach. The number and density are very rare. Combining field investigation, indoor interpretation, laboratory tests, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, SBAS-InSAR and previous studies, multidisciplinary approaches are used to systematically summarize the analysis methods and further the understanding of one river blocking event and multiple river blocking events from different perspectives. Especially in multiple river blocking events, we can get the wrong results if interaction is not considered. Through this study, the general method of analyzing the river blocking event and the problems that should be paid attention to in sampling are given, and relatively reliable historical results of river blocking events are obtained. This method has applicability to the identification and analysis of river blocking events and age determination of dams with multiple river blockages.