Zhou Ye

A precise air pollution forecast is the basis for targeted pollution control and sustained improvements in air quality. It is desirable and crucial to select the most suitable model for air pollution forecasting (APF). To achieve this goal, this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of performances of different models in simulating the most common air pollutants (e.g., PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, and CO) in Guangzhou (23.13° N, 113.26° E), China. To simulate temporal variations of the above-mentioned air pollutant concentrations in Guangzhou in September and October 2020, we use a numerical forecasting model (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem)) and two artificial intelligence models (i.e., the back propagation neural network (BPNN) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) model). WRF-Chem is also used to simulate the meteorological elements (e.g., the 2 m temperature (T2), 2 m relative humidity (RH), and 10 m wind speed and direction (WS, WD)). In order to investigate the simulation accuracies of classical APF models, we simultaneously compare the simulations of the WRF-Chem, BPNN, and LSTM models to ground truth observations. Comparative assessment results show that WRF-Chem simulated air pollutant (i.e., PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, and CO) concentrations have the best correlations with ground measurements (i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient R = 0.88, 0.73, 0.61, and 0.61, respectively). Furthermore, to evaluate model performance in terms of accuracy and stability, the normalized mean bias (NMB, %) and mean fractional bias (MFB, %) are adopted as the standard performance metrics (SPMs) proposed by Boylan et al. The comparison results indicate that when simulating PM_2.5, WRF-Chem was more effective than the BPNN but less effective than the LSTM. While simulating concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, and CO, the WRF-Chem model performed better than the BPNN and LSTM models. With regards to WRF-Chem, the NMBs and MFBs for the PM_2.5 simulations are, respectively, 6.49% and 0.02%, –11.96% and –0.031% for NO₂, 7.93% and 0.019% for CO, and 5.04% and 0.012% for SO₂. Our results suggest that WRF-Chem has superior performance and better accuracy than the NN-based prediction models, making it a promising and useful tool to accurately predict and forecast regional air pollutant concentrations on a city scale.

The aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) characterises the attenuation of the light propagating in a turbid medium with suspended particles. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out AEC prediction research using state-of-art neural network (NN) methods. The attention mechanism (AM) has become an indispensable part of NNs that focuses on input weight assignment. Traditional AM is used in time steps to help generate the outputs. To select important features of meteorological parameters (MP) that are helpful for forecasting, in this study, we apply AM to features instead of time steps. Then we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) NN based on AM to predict the AEC. The proposed method can remember information twice (i.e., forward and backward), which can provide more context for AEC forecasting. Finally, an in situ measured MP dataset is applied in the proposed model, which presents Maoming coastal area’s atmospheric conditions in November 2020. The experimental results show that the model proposed in this paper has higher accuracy compared with traditional NN, providing a novel solution to the AEC prediction problem for the current studies of marine aerosol.