Mihaela Bukljaš

The efficiency and safety of maritime traffic in a given area can be measured by analyzing traffic density and ship collision probability. Maritime traffic density is the number of ships passing through a given area in a given period of time. It can be measured using vessel tracking systems, such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The information provided by AIS is real-time data designed to improve maritime safety. However, the AIS data can also be used for scientific research purposes to improve maritime safety by developing predictive models for collisions in a research area. This article proposes a ship collision probability estimation model based on Monte Carlo simulation (MC) and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) for the maritime region of Split. The proposed model includes the processing of AIS data, the verification of AIS data, the determination of ports and ship routes, MC and the collision probability, the Bi-LSTM learning process based on MC, the ship collision probability for new or existing routes, and the traffic density. The results of MC, i.e., traffic/vessel route and density, and collision probability for the study area can be used for Bi-LSTM training with the aim of estimating ship collision probability. This article presents the first part of research that includes MC in detail, followed by a preliminary result based on one day of processed AIS data used to simulate MC and propose a model architecture that implements Bi-LSTM for ship collision probability estimation.

The container shipping industry market is very dynamic and demanding, economically, politically, legally, and financially. Considering the high cost of core assets, ever rising operating costs, and the volatility of demand and supply of cargo space, the result is an industry under enormous pressure to remain profitable and competitive. To maximize profits while maintaining service levels and ensuring the smooth flow of cargo, it is essential to make strategic decisions in a timely and optimal manner. Fleet deployment selection, which includes the profile of vessel hire, as well as their capacity and port rotation, is one of the most important strategic and tactical decisions container shipping operators must make. Bearing in mind that maritime business is inherently stochastic and uncertain, the key aims of this paper are to address the problem of fleet deployment under uncertain operating conditions, and to provide an integrated and optimized tool in the form of a mathematical model, metaheuristic algorithm, and computer program. Furthermore, this paper will show that the properties of the provided solutions exceed those offered in the literature so far. Such a solution will provide the shipping operator with a decision tool to best deploy its fleet in a way that responds more closely to real life situations and to meet the maximum demand for cargo space with minimal expense. The final goal is to minimize the operating costs while managing cargo flows and reducing the risks of unfulfilled customer demands.