Shilpa Jagatram Tomar

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthropod-borne virus capable of causing large outbreaks. We aimed to determine the decadal change in the extent of chikungunya virus infection from 2009 to 2019. We implemented a prospective cross-sectional survey in Pune City using a 30-cluster approach with probability-proportion-to-size (PPS) sampling, with blood samples collected from 1654 participants in early 2019. The study also included an additional 799 blood samples from an earlier serosurvey in late 2009. The samples were tested by an in-house anti-CHIKV IgG ELISA assay. The overall seroprevalence in 2019 was 53.2% (95% CI 50.7–55.6) as against 8.5% (95% CI 6.5–10.4) in 2009. A fivefold increase in seroprevalence was observed in a decade (p < 0.00001). The seroprevalence increased significantly with age; however, it did not differ between genders. Modeling of age-stratified seroprevalence data from 2019 coincided with a recent outbreak in 2016 followed by the low-level circulation. The mean estimated force of infection during the outbreak was 35.8% (95% CI 2.9–41.2), and it was 1.2% after the outbreak. To conclude, the study reports a fivefold increase in the seroprevalence of chikungunya infection over a decade in Pune City. The modeling approach considering intermittent outbreaks with continuous low-level circulation was a better fit and coincided with a recent outbreak reported in 2016. Community engagement and effective vector control measures are needed to avert future chikungunya outbreaks.