Youlin Wang

The Eastern Tianshan region, influenced by the far-field effect of northward compression and expansion of the Qinghai-Xizang block, features highly developed Late Quaternary active faults that exhibit significant neotectonic activity. Historically, the Barkol-Yiwu Basin, located to the north of the Eastern Tianshan, experienced two major earthquakes in 1842 and 1914, each with a magnitude of M7¹/₂. In contrast, the Hami Basin on the southern margin of the Eastern Tianshan has no historical records of any major earthquakes, and its seismic potential, mechanisms, and future earthquake hazards remain unclear. Based on satellite image interpretation and field surveys, this study identified a relatively recent and well-preserved seismic surface rupture zone with good continuity in the Liushugou area of the western segment of the Northern Margin Fault of the Hami Basin (HMNF), which is the seismogenic structure responsible for the rupture. The surface rupture zone originates at Kekejin in the east, extends intermittently westward through Daipuseke Bulake and Liushugou, and terminates at Wuzun Bulake, with a total length of approximately 21 km. The rupture zone traverses the youngest geomorphic surface units, such as river beds or floodplains and first-order terraces (platforms), and is characterized by a series of single or multiple reverse fault scarps. The morphology of fault scarps is clear, presenting a light soil color with heights ranging from 0.15 m to 2.13 m and an average displacement of 0.56 m, suggesting that this surface rupture zone likely represents the most recent seismic event. Comparison with historical earthquake records in the Eastern Tianshan region suggests that the rupture zone may have been formed simultaneously with the Xiongkuer rupture zone by the 1842 M7¹/₂ earthquake along the boundary faults on both sides of the Barkol Mountains, exhibiting a flower-like structural pattern. Alternatively, it might represent a separate, unrecorded seismic event occurring shortly after the 1842 earthquake. The estimated magnitude of the associated earthquake is about 6.6~6.9. Given that surface-rupturing earthquakes have already occurred in the western segment, the study indicates that the Erdaogou–Nanshankou section of the HMNF has surpassed the average recurrence interval for major earthquakes, indicating a potential future earthquake hazard.

Following significant urban expansion, the ecological problems of resource-based cities are gradually exposed. It is of great significance to study the ecosystem services of resource-based cities to achieve their sustainable development goals and to alleviate the conflicts between environmental protection and the utilization of the surrounding resources. However, in the current research on resource-based cities, few scholars have combined multiple minerals and multiple ecosystem services to explore the impact of mineral resources on the ecosystem. In this study, based on the historical data spanning from 2002 to 2018, we used the CA–Markov model to project the land use of Panzhihua City to 2030. Based on future land use projection, we quantified four ecosystem services (ESs) variables, including water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and soil conservation, using the InVEST model from the perspective of land use evolution in Panzhihua City. In addition, we explored the trade-offs and synergies of different ecosystem services and the correlations between different mineral species and ecosystem services using Spearman’s correlation coefficient. Results showed the following: (1) During 2002–2018, water yield service, habitat quality service, and carbon storage service of Panzhihua City decreased year by year, and soil conservation service showed significant fluctuations; most of the low ESs areas were distributed in the central region of Panzhihua. On the contrary, most high ESs areas were located in the forest region. (2) The trade-offs and synergistic relationships among different ecosystem services showed significant spatial variations. There were synergistic relationships among ESs and weak trade-offs between water yield services, soil conservation, and habitat quality services. There was also significant spatial variability in the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, with water production services showing “east trade-offs and west synergies” with soil conservation and habitat quality services, and most of the rest showing trade-offs in urban areas. (3) ESs in mining areas showed trade-offs in general, mainly between water production services and carbon storage services, with clay as the major negative factor of mineral species, and iron ore mines that have undergone ecological protection construction showed the lowest negative impact on ecology.

With the social and economic development in recent years, human activities have been more extensive and intensified. As a result, ecosystems are damaged to varying degrees, and regional ecological environments tend to be weaker. The socio-ecological system in Aba Prefecture, Western Sichuan Plateau, China, the researched area, also faces increasingly serious problems. To advance ecological civilization development in a coordinated way across the country, the national government and the competent authorities have launched a series of new strategies. Research on socio-ecological vulnerability, a major part of the ecosystem protection and restoration program, is provided with powerful spatial data observation and analysis tools thanks to the invention and development of remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. This study was based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) framework. Multi-source data such as digital elevation model (DEM), geographical data such as land use types, soil and geological disasters, remote sensing image data, meteorological data and social statistics data from 2005 to 2019 were used to construct the temporal social-ecosystem vulnerability evaluation index database of Aba Prefecture, Western Sichuan Plateau. The spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) is applied to evaluating the socio-ecological vulnerability and analyzing its spatial-temporal variation in Aba Prefecture, Western Sichuan Plateau. To probe into the driving effects of various impact factors on the socio-ecological vulnerability, the Geodetector is used to analyze the driving factors. The ordered weighted average (OWA) method is applied to the multi-scenario analysis of socio-ecological vulnerability in the researched area. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) from 2005 to 2019, the spatial distribution characteristics of exposure and sensitivity in Aba Prefecture were higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, and the overall spatial distribution characteristics of socio-ecological system vulnerability showed that the degree of vulnerability increased from the north to the southeast. (2) Extreme natural climate conditions play a leading role in the driving of socio-ecosystem vulnerability, followed by human production activities and geological hazards. (3) The degree of social-ecosystem vulnerability in Aba Prefecture will increase with the increase of decision risk coefficient. The results of social-ecosystem vulnerability under the status quo scenario are similar to those in 2010 and 2019, indicating that the selected evaluation factors can reflect the actual social-ecosystem vulnerability. In the sustainable guided scenario and the unsustainable guided scenario, the proportion of the area of the social-ecosystem severe vulnerability level was at the minimum value and the maximum value, respectively.

Glacial lakes are important freshwater resources in southern Tibet. However, glacial lake outburst floods have significantly jeopardized the safety of local residents. To better understand the changes in glacial lakes in response to climate change, it is necessary to conduct a long-term evaluation on the areal dynamics of glacial lakes, assisted with local observations. Here, we propose an innovative method of classification and stacking extraction to accurately delineate glacial lakes in southwestern Tibet from 1990 to 2020. Based on Landsat images and meteorological data, we used geographic detectors to detect correlation factors. Multiple regression models were used to analyze the driving factors of the changes in glacier lake area. We combined bathymetric data of the glacial lakes with the changes in climatic variables and utilized HEC-RAS to determine critical circumstances for glacial lake outbursts. The results show that the area of glacial lakes in Nyalam County increased from 27.95 km² in 1990 to 52.85 km² in 2020, and eight more glacial lakes were observed in the study area. The glacial lake area expanded by 89.09%, where we found significant growth from 2015 to 2020. The correlation analysis between the glacial lake area and climate change throughout the period shows that temperature and precipitation dominate the expansion of these lakes from 1990 to 2020. We also discover that the progressive increase in water volume of glacial lakes can be attributed to the constant rise in temperature and freeze–thaw of surrounding glaciers. Finally, the critical conditions for the glacial lake’s outburst were predicted by using HEC-RAS combined with the changes in the water volume and climatic factors. It is concluded that GangxiCo endures a maximum water flow of 4.3 × 10⁸ m³, and the glacial lake is in a stable changing stage. This conclusion is consistent with the field investigation and can inform the prediction of glacial lake outbursts in southwestern Tibet in the future.

Lakes are important natural resources closely related to human survival and development. Based on PIE cloud computing platform, the study uses Landsat images and the empirical normalized water body index (ENDWI) to extract water body information of the large lakes in Sichuan province from 2000 to 2020 in the drought and rainy seasons, respectively, and uses the Mann–Kendall test to obtain the long-term trends of their area and climate. On this basis, the evolution of the lakes and their correlation with climate and human activities are analyzed. The results show that (1) In the past 20 years, the area of Lugu Lake, Qionghai Lake, and Luban Reservoir represent a decreasing trend, with Lugu Lake being the most affected. The area of Ma Lake, Three Forks Lake, and Shengzhong Reservoir increased, with the area of Shengzhong Reservoir increasing significantly; (2) During the drought season, all six lakes showed a decreasing trend in precipitation, with the most apparent decreasing trend for Lugu Lake (Slope = −0.8). Only Lugu Lake showed a decreasing trend in precipitation (Slope = −0.15) during the rainy season. The precipitation of Ma Lake, Three Forks Lake, Luban Reservoir and Shengzhong Reservoir showed a significant increasing trend (Slope value was greater than 1.96); (3) The temperatures of the remaining lakes all decreased in the drought season and increased in the rainy season, except that the temperature of Shengzhong Reservoir decreases throughout the year; (4) The area change of plain lakes is greatly affected by human activities, but the area of plateau lakes is are more impacted by climate. Our study improved the accuracy of long-term water body change monitoring with PIE-Engine Studio. Besides, the findings would provide reference for the implementation of sustainable water resources management in Sichuan Province.

Panzhihua City is a typical agricultural-forestry-pastoral and ecologically sensitive city in China. It is also an important ecological defense in the upper Yangtze River. It has abundant mineral resources, including vanadium, titanium, and water supplies. However, ecological and environmental problems emerge due to the excessive development of mining, agriculture, animal husbandry, and other non-natural urban economies. Therefore, a scientific understanding of the spatio-temporal changes of the eco-environment of Panzhihua is critical for environmental protection, city planning, and construction. To objectively evaluate the eco-environmental status of Panzhihua, the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) was first applied to Panzhihua, a typical resource-based city, and its ecological environmental quality (EEQ) was quantitatively assessed from 1990 to 2020. This study explored the effects of mining activities and policies on EEQ and used change detection to reveal the spatial-temporal changes of EEQ in Panzhihua City over the past three decades. In addition, this study also verified the suitability of RSEI for evaluating EEQ in resource-based city using spatial autocorrelation, revealed the spatial heterogeneity of EEQ in Panzhihua City using optimized hot spot analysis, and showed different ecological clustering by hot spot analysis at two scales of urban and mining areas. According to the results: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the general eco-environmental condition of Panzhihua is improving, but there are still regional differences. (2) The Moran’s I value ranges from 0.436 (1990) to 0.700 (2020), indicating that there is autocorrelation in the distribution of eco-environmental quality. (3) At the mine, the mean value of RSEI dropped by 20–40%, and the EEQ decreased significantly due to mining activities. (4) A series of ecological restoration policies can buffer the negative impact of mining activities on the ecosystem, resulting in a slight improvement in the quality of the ecological environment. This study evaluates the EEQ of resource-based city and its spatial-temporal changes using RSEI constructed by the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, which can provide theoretical support for ecological and environmental conditions monitoring, development planning, and environmental protection policy-making of a resource-based city.

Global climate changes have a great impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Vegetation is an important component of ecosystems, and the impact of climate changes on ecosystems can be determined by studying vegetation phenology. Vegetation phenology refers to the phenomenon of periodic changes in plants, such as germination, flowering and defoliation, with the seasonal change of climate during the annual growth cycle, and it is considered to be one of the most efficient indicators to monitor climate changes. This study collected the global land surface satellite leaf area index (GLASS LAI) products, meteorological data sets and other auxiliary data in the Three-River headwaters region from 2001 to 2018; rebuilt the vegetation LAI annual growth curve by using the asymmetric Gaussian (A-G) fitting method and extracted the three vegetation phenological data (including Start of Growing Season (SOS), End of Growing Season (EOS) and Length of Growing Season (LOS)) by the maximum slope method. In addition, it also integrated Sen’s trend analysis method and the Mann-Kendall test method to explore the temporal and spatial variation trends of vegetation phenology and explored the relationship between vegetation phenology and meteorological factors through a partial correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models. The results of this study showed that: (1) the SOS of vegetation in the Three-River headwaters region is concentrated between the beginning and the end of May, with an interannual change rate of −0.14 d/a. The EOS of vegetation is concentrated between the beginning and the middle of October, with an interannual change rate of 0.02 d/a. The LOS of vegetation is concentrated between 4 and 5 months, with an interannual change rate of 0.21 d/a. (2) Through the comparison and verification with the vegetation phenological data observed at the stations, it was found that the precision of the vegetation phonology extracted by the A-G method and the maximum slope method based on GLASS LAI data is higher (MAE is 7.6 d, RMSE is 8.4 d) and slightly better than the vegetation phenological data (MAE is 9.9 d, RMSE is 10.9 d) extracted based on the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) product. (3) The correlation between the SOS of vegetation and the average temperature in March–May is the strongest. The SOS of vegetation is advanced by 1.97 days for every 1 °C increase in the average temperature in March–May; the correlation between the EOS of vegetation and the cumulative sunshine duration in August–October is the strongest. The EOS of vegetation is advanced by 0.07 days for every 10-h increase in the cumulative sunshine duration in August–October.

The Three Gorges Reservoir region in China is the Yangtze River Economic Zone’s natural treasure trove. Its natural environment has an important role in development. The unique and fragile ecosystem in the Yangtze River’s Three Gorges Reservoir region is prone to natural disasters, including soil erosion, landslides, debris flows, landslides, and earthquakes. Therefore, to better alleviate these threats, an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the susceptibility of this area is required. In this study, based on the collection of relevant data and existing research results, we applied machine learning models, including logistic regression (LR), the random forest model (RF), and the support vector machine (SVM) model, to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Yangtze River’s Three Gorges Reservoir region to analyze landslide events in the whole study region. The models identified five categories (i.e., topographic, geological, ecological, meteorological, and human engineering activities), with nine independent variables, influencing landslide susceptibility. The accuracy of landslide susceptibility derived from different models and raster cells was then verified by the accuracy, recall, F1-score, ROC curve, and AUC of each model. The results illustrate that the accuracy of different machine learning algorithms is ranked as SVM > RF > LR. The LR model has the lowest generalization ability. The SVM model performs well in all regions of the study area, with an AUC value of 0.9708 for the entire Three Gorges Reservoir area, indicating that the SVM model possesses a strong spatial generalization ability as well as the highest robustness and can be adapted as a real-time model for assessing regional landslide susceptibility.