Helen Morgan

Early changes in lung cancer care can affect survival. Given the decrease in diagnosis during lockdowns, we calculated their impact on survival using National Lung Cancer Audit data. Percentage survival and HRs for death were compared between 2019 and lockdown periods of 2020. Decreased survival was observed from the first national lockdown onwards and within 90 days of diagnosis. HRs were highest for people diagnosed at the end of 2020 at 1.26 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.32) for death within 90 days and 1.51 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.60) for death between 91 and 270 days. Further work is needed on measures to mitigate this impact.

It is now widely accepted that lung cancer screening through low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) results in fewer diagnoses at a late stage, and decreased lung cancer mortality. Whilst reducing deaths from lung cancer is an essential prerequisite, this must be balanced against the considerable economic costs accumulated in screening. Multiple health economic models have shown substantial variation in cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY), partly driven by the healthcare costs in the country concerned and partly by other modifiable programme components. Recent modelling using UK costs and a targeted approach suggest that most scenarios are within the willingness to pay threshold for the UK. However, identifying the most clinically and cost-effective programme is a priority to minimise the total financial impact. Programme components that influence cost-effectiveness include the method of selection of the eligible population, the participation rate, the interval between rounds of screening, the method of pulmonary nodule management, and the approach to clinical work up. Future research will clarify if a personalised approach to screening, using baseline and subsequent risk to define screening intervals is more cost-effective. The burden of LDCT screening on the medical infrastructure and workforce has to be quantified and carefully managed during implementation.

Accurately explaining perioperative mortality and risk to patients is an essential part of shared decision making. In the case of lung cancer surgery, the currently available multivariable mortality prediction tools perform poorly, and could mislead patients. Using data from 2004 to 2012, this group has previously produced data tables for 90-day postoperative mortality, to be used as a communication aid in the consenting process. Using National Lung Cancer Clinical Outcomes audit data from 2017 to 2018, we have produced updated early mortality tables, to reflect current thoracic surgery practice.

New fissure-attached nodules in lung cancer screening: more practical implications from the NELSON study?