Victor Ogesa Juma

This article presents a systematic approach for deriving the necessary and sufficient conditions for diffusion-driven instability for a three-component reaction–diffusion system (RDS) with linear cross-diffusion and activator-bi-inhibitor reaction kinetics. First, by considering the system in the absence of spatial variations, we derive the necessary conditions for the uniform steady state to be linearly asymptotically stable, based on the Routh–Hurwitz criterion. Second, by introducing spatial variations, we derive 17 different sets of necessary conditions under which the uniform steady state becomes linearly unstable. These conditions emerge from the violation of at least one of the Routh–Hurwitz conditions for stability. The derivation of these conditions reduces to studying one quadratic and two cubic polynomials as functions of the wave numbers. This is in contrast to the case of a two-component RDS, where Turing instability is driven by a single quadratic polynomial. To verify the validity of these conditions, we systematically derive diffusion-driven instability parameter spaces by picking cross-diffusion tensor matrices from real physical systems. Sufficient conditions are established by determining parameter values from the generated parameter spaces such that specific modes are isolated for pattern formation. Finite element simulations in 1–space dimension confirm theoretical predictions of linear stability analysis.

The interplay between reaction kinetics and diffusion leads to a wide range of spatiotemporal behaviors in reaction–diffusion (RD) systems. This article presents a theoretical and computational study of a RD system inspired by experimental observations of the Rho-GEF-Myosin signaling network controlling cell contraction dynamics. The temporal reaction system dynamics range from periodicity to bistability. By employing a dual hybrid dynamical systems approach of numerical bifurcation analysis and Floquet theory, we characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics when stable limit-cycle oscillators or homogeneous time-periodic solutions undergo the process of Floquet–Turing-diffusion-driven-instability (FTDDI). FTDDI refers to the emergence of spatially nonuniform patterns when diffusion destabilizes an otherwise temporally stable limit cycle of the underlying reaction kinetics. For the temporal reaction system, numerical bifurcation allows us to identify regions in a two-parameter space defining the stability of the uniform steady states and regions where the system exhibits limit cycles, which are characterized by employing the Floquet theory. In the presence of spatial variations, Floquet theory classifies regions where diffusion destabilizes the limit cycle or maintains their homogeneous stability and the emerging spatiotemporal dynamics of the full system, far from equilibrium. In the bistable regime, diffusion differentiates regions into those that exhibit classical Turing diffusion-driven instability, leading to pattern formation; and those that exhibit FTDDI, leading to space-time periodic patterns, spatially inhomogeneous patterns, oscillatory pulses, and wave propagation, and those that remain unaffected by diffusion. These findings provide theoretical insights into understanding complex spatiotemporal dynamics relevant to biological, chemical, and ecological spatiotemporal systems.

In this study, a mathematical model is constructed, analyzed, and numerically simulated to investigate the effects of vaccination rates and efficacy on the incidence of COVID-19. The model subdivides the infectious class into symptomatic, asymptomatic, and hospitalized individuals, enabling us to explore questions inadequately addressed by prior models. First, the existence of a region where the model is epidemiologically feasible is established. Then a thorough qualitative analysis is carried out in order to characterize the long-term dynamics of the model solutions, and the model is calibrated using South Africa-reported data from the beginning of the epidemic until July 2022. In addition, different numerical scenarios with different transmission rates, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and vaccination parameters were investigated. The model, analysis, and results of this study can be adapted to study the dynamics of other epidemics.

Dose calculation plays a critical role in radiotherapy (RT) treatment planning, and there is a growing need to develop accurate dose deposition models that incorporate heterogeneous tumour properties. Deterministic models have demonstrated their capability in this regard, making them the focus of recent treatment planning studies as they serve as a basis for simplified models in RT treatment planning. In this study, we present a simplified deterministic model for photon transport based on the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) as a proof‐of‐concept to illustrate the impact of heterogeneous tumour properties on RT treatment planning. We employ the finite element method (FEM) to simulate the photon flux and dose deposition in real cases of diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) and neuroblastoma (NB) tumours. Importantly, in light of the availability of pipelines capable of extracting tumour properties from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, we highlight the significance of such data. Specifically, we utilise cellularity data extracted from DIPG and NB MRI images to demonstrate the importance of heterogeneity in dose calculation. Our model simplifies the process of simulating a RT treatment system and can serve as a useful starting point for further research. To simulate a full RT treatment system, one would need a comprehensive model that couples the transport of electrons and photons.

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number R 0 and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to R 0 . The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

The process of revitalising quiescent cells in order for them to proliferate plays a pivotal role in the repair of warn out tissues as well as for tissue homeostasis. This process is also crucial in the growth, development and well-being of higher multi-cellular organisms such as mammals. Deregulation of quiescent-proliferation transition is related to many diseases, in particular cancer. Recent studies have revealed that this process is regulated tightly by the Rb−E2F bistable switch mechanism. Based on experimental observations, in this study, we formulate a mathematical model to examine the effect of the growth factor concentration on the proliferation-quiescence transition in human cells. Working with a non-dimensionalised model, we prove positivity, boundedness and uniqueness of solutions. To understand model solution behaviour close to bifurcation points, we carry out bifurcation analysis, which is further verified by use of numerical bifurcation analysis, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations. Indeed, bifurcation and numerical analysis of the model predicted a transition between stable, bistable and stable states, which are dependent on the growth factor concentration parameter (GF). The derived predictions confirm experimental observations.

Recent experimental observations reveal that local cellular contraction pulses emerge via a combination of fast positive and slow negative feedbacks based on a signal network composed of Rho, GEF and Myosin interactions [22]. As an examplary, we propose to study a plausible, hypothetical temporal model that mirrors general principles of fast positive and slow negative feedback, a hallmark for activator-inhibitor models. The methodology involves (ⅰ) a qualitative analysis to unravel system switching between different states (stable, excitable, oscillatory and bistable) through model parameter variations; (ⅱ) a numerical bifurcation analysis using the positive feedback mediator concentration as a bifurcation parameter, (ⅲ) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on the model output for different dynamic regimes of the model system; and (ⅳ) numerical simulations of the model system for model predictions. Our methodological approach supports the role of mathematical and computational models in unravelling mechanisms for molecular and developmental processes and provides tools for analysis of temporal models of this nature.

Crime data provides information on the nature and location of the crime but, in general, does not include information on the number of criminals operating in a region. By contrast, many approaches to crime reduction necessarily involve working with criminals or individuals at risk of engaging in criminal activity and so the dynamics of the criminal population is important. With this in mind, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model which combines the number of crimes and number of criminals to create a dynamical system. Analysis of the model highlights a threshold for criminal efficiency, below which criminal numbers will settle to an equilibrium level that can be exploited to reduce crime through prevention. This efficiency measure arises from the initiation of new criminals in response to observation of criminal activity; other initiation routes - via opportunism or peer pressure - do not exhibit such thresholds although they do impact on the level of criminal activity observed. We used data from Cape Town, South Africa, to obtain parameter estimates and predicted that the number of criminals in the region is tending towards an equilibrium point but in a heterogeneous manner - a drop in the number of criminals from low crime neighbourhoods is being offset by an increase from high crime neighbourhoods.