Suzanna Elmassah

The objective of this paper is to examine the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a test case of Gulf energy transition finance by analyzing how a hydrocarbon-dependent economy is constructing the financial, regulatory, and institutional architecture required to move from net-zero pledges to climate finance flows. Rather than treating climate finance as a set of isolated instruments, the paper conceptualizes the UAE’s approach as a state-led transition-finance model shaped by Gulf state capitalism, sovereign wealth accumulation, national oil company strategy, financial regulation, and post-COP28 climate diplomacy. Using a qualitative policy and institutional review, the paper maps the UAE’s transition-finance architecture across three interrelated dimensions: institutions and governance, financial instruments, and policy alignment. It examines the role of federal strategies such as Net Zero 2050 and the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, regulatory actors including the Central Bank of the UAE, the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), and Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), and key financial mechanisms including green bonds and sukuk, sustainability-linked finance, sovereign wealth fund investments, national oil company decarbonization strategies, blended-finance platforms, and carbon-market mechanisms. The analysis finds that the UAE has developed a distinctive state-led, finance-centric model for financing the energy transition. This model enables rapid capital mobilization, de-risking of private investment, and strong international positioning, particularly following COP28 and the launch of ALTÉRRA. However, its effectiveness is constrained by unresolved tensions between net-zero ambition and hydrocarbon expansion, fragmented sustainable-finance regulation, limited carbon-pricing signals, uneven disclosure practices, underdeveloped domestic green capital markets, and restricted access to green finance for SMEs. The paper argues that the UAE’s climate-finance architecture is best understood neither as simple green diversification nor as symbolic climate positioning, but as an emerging Gulf model of transition finance: well-capitalized, and institutionally coordinated, yet structurally shaped by the same hydrocarbon rents and state-led governance logics it seeks to transform. By positioning the UAE as a benchmark, the paper contributes to debates on climate finance, state capitalism, and transition governance in hydrocarbon-dependent economies, while identifying the coherence gaps to be addressed for climate finance to support economy-wide decarbonization.

The advent of digitalization has brought about profound changes in the global value chain, raising significant concerns about environmental sustainability. However, the environmental consequences resulting from the interplay between global value chain participation and digitalization have not been adequately explored, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). To address this gap, our research delves into the impact of global value chain participation on environmental sustainability in 15 MENA countries from 1996 to 2018. We also investigate the moderating effects of two critical policy variables: digitization and institutional quality, employing the SYS-GMM Panel method and Random Effects method. Empirical findings reveal that participating in the global value chain has positive environmental implications for MENA countries. These results hold true and remain consistent when considering forward value participation linkages and oil-importing nations. Furthermore, we observe that the proposed moderators play a significant role in shaping the environmental impact of the global value chain. Specifically, institutions and global value chains work in synergy to promote environmental sustainability in MENA, encompassing both oil-importing and oil-exporting groups. However, the interaction between the global value chain and digitalization generates a negative net effect, which diminishes beyond a specific digitalization threshold of 10.23%. Consequently, implementing complementary policies becomes crucial when digitization is below this threshold. Additionally, our study supports the resource curse hypothesis for the MENA region, suggesting that natural resources contribute to environmental degradation. These insights offer valuable guidance for enhancing global value chain integration while preserving a sustainable environment in MENA.

Currently, the advent of digitalization has profoundly altered the structure of Global Value Chains (GVCs), with implications for environmental sustainability (ENS). Notwithstanding its importance, the dynamics of participation in GVCs, ENS, and digitalization have not been thoroughly investigated in empirical literature. On the other hand, despite its rapid evolution and growing popularity, GVCs participation is rarely considered when analyzing factors influencing ENS in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Extending this research line, the analysis scrutinizes the impact of GVCs participation on ENS in 15 countries in MENA between 1996 and 2018. The study further investigates the moderating impacts of two major policy variables, namely Institutional Quality (IQ) and Digitalization (DIGI). The study employs SYS-GMM panel method and Random Effects. The empirical results indicate that GVCs participation is environmentally useful in the MENA region. The findings remain robust/similar when considering forward value participation linkages and oil-importing countries, whereas backward linkages deteriorate the region ENS. The findings further reveal that the GVCs environmental impact is modulated through IQ and DIGI. IQ and GVCs are particularly complementary in promoting ENS in MENA and across both oil importing and exporting groups. Nonetheless, the GVCs interaction with DIGI produces a negative net effect. This negative effect is mitigated beyond a particular threshold of 10.23%, necessitating complementary policies related to the link between GVCs participation and ENS below this threshold. Additionally, the findings affirm that FDI improves the environment, whereas natural resource rents degrade it, supporting the resource curse hypothesis for the MENA region. The study findings provide new insights into achieving improved GVCs integration while maintaining sustainable environment. JEL classification: F18, Q56, C26

The economic development and environmental sustainability nexus have long been a fiercely debated issue. Researchers have widely acknowledged the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis when evaluating this relationship. Recently, an emerging strand of research examined the EKC through the lens of the Economic Complexity Index (ECoI) as a broader measure of economic development. However, empirical evidence of the index’s environmental impact is still limited. Despite its growing prominence, no prior research has been conducted in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) using the ECoI, particularly in the EKC context. Furthermore, research comparing the ECoI differentiated impacts on Ecological Footprint and Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) emissions is largely lacking. Extending on this line of research, our investigation intends to ascertain the influence of ECoI, income, globalization as well as non-renewable energy consumption on two dominant environmental pressure metrics: CO₂ emissions and ecological footprint per capita (EFpc) within the EKC hypothesis context in six GCC countries during 1995–2018. To this end, Pedroni’s cointegration approach was conducted to examine the long-term association between variables; cointegration coefficients were analyzed using Dynamic and Fully modified OLS. Our investigation indicates the emergence of an inverted U-shaped link between ECoI and environmental sustainability in the GCC region for both CO₂ emissions and EFpc. Furthermore, according to the individual country analysis, our findings demonstrate that the EKC hypothesis is sensitive to both the environmental degradation indicator used and the country analyzed; such that the quadratic link incorporating ECoI is confirmed for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait when EFpc is employed. In comparison, it holds for Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar when CO₂ emissions are used. Moreover, the findings show that income per capita and non-renewables consumption significantly harm environmental sustainability, however, in terms of EFpc only. In contrast, through its three sub-dimensions, globalization contributes to the environmental burden by increasing both EFpc and CO₂ emissions. These conclusions emphasize the economic complexity’s dominant role in mitigating environmental pollution in GCC beyond a certain threshold. Finally, the paper reaches a concise set of implications. Among the foremost, the GCC nations could enhance their environmental sustainability by diversifying their energy sources and increasing reliance on renewable sources, encouraging investment in carbon-reduction technologies, converting their economy from energy-intensive to technology-intensive, as well as imposing strict environmental laws to enable globalization to improve environmental quality.

One of the most pressing global concerns is ensuring high levels of human well-being without overburdening natural resources. The impact of natural resource abundance on the economy’s monetary dimensions has long been controversial, with researchers debating whether it is a blessing or a curse. Recently, focus has shifted to its impact on non-monetary attributes (i.e., human well-being), with conflicting empirical evidence with respect to existence of the resource curse. However, studies on the indirect impact of natural resources on well-being are rare. This inquiry extends previous research by investigating the effect of natural resource abundance on human well-being and the underlying mechanisms that may clarify the convoluted link between the two variables in the UAE from 1990 to 2019. The novel contribution of this research is the evaluation of the resource curse concept from a broader perspective by considering how resource endowments indirectly affect human well-being via environmental quality, human capital, and governance channels. To this end, in the present study, we utilized the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique for cointegration and deployed the vector error correction model (VECM) for causality investigation. The ARDL results indicate cointegrated variables with diverse integration orders, signifying a long-term bond. Furthermore, the outcomes endorse the notion that resource endowment is inversely related to well-being as calibrated by the Human Development Index (HDI), corroborating the “Resource Curse Concept”, whereby large resource endowments impede human well-being. In terms of transmission channels, natural resources improve human well-being through environmental quality. In contrast, both human capital and governance have insignificant impacts on the influence of natural resources on well-being. Therefore, resource endowments improve human well-being as long as they do not harm the environment. The present analysis also resulted in the development of a feedback hypothesis between natural resource endowments and human well-being. The findings of this study provide several insights into the control of the direct and indirect adverse effects of natural resources on human well-being, the foremost being the provision of incentives for low-carbon energy use, reducing energy intensity, and assisting businesses engaged in R&D to minimize the cost of employing renewables, as well as investments in low-carbon technologies/cleantech and environmental technologies.

By utilizing a novel data set of 24 democracies for the 1972–2018 period, we investigate how election outcomes, including election surprises, are priced by the stock market. We show that an election surprise increases volatility but has no significant effect on excess returns. A win by a coalition announced prior to the election decreases volatility, however, a large winning percentage for the lead party within the coalition decreases excess returns. An unexpected winning margin over the closest competitor by the lead party decreases volatility by consolidating power, but only in parliamentary elections. Party orientation for the winning party affects neither excess returns nor volatility, even if it is unexpected.

Purpose: This research's main objective is to investigate the relationship between consumption expenditure and consumer confidence in the USA and to study their effects on US economic revivalism during and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock.Design/methodology/approach: The authors use Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index and its five components from January 1978 to April 2020. The study is unique in quantifying the potential variations in US consumer confidence due to COVID-19 under different scenarios, by providing a projection until December 2021. It also estimates the time needed for recovery and offers guidance to policymakers on ways to contain the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the economy by restoring consumer confidence.Findings: All scenarios show a gradual recovery of consumer confidence and consumption expenditure. This study recommends expansionary policies to encourage consumption expenditure to generate additional demand and boost economic growth and job creation.Practical implications: Though this study is limited to the US consumer confidence index, it offers significant implications for marketers, customers and policymakers of other developed economies. The authors recommend expansionary economic policies to boost consumer confidence, raise economic growth and result in job creation.Originality/value: The study is unique in quantifying the potential variations in US consumer confidence due to COVID-19 under different scenarios; by providing a projection until December 2021. It also estimates the time needed for recovery and guidance for policymakers on ways to contain the COVID-19 shock negative impacts on the economy by restoring consumer confidence.