Grant N. Webster

Adaptive management of threatened species relies on having ex ante estimates of species’ responses to different interventions. Structured expert elicitation is often used to generate these estimates, but comparisons of these expert‐predicted outcomes with observed results are rare. This study aims to evaluate the utility of expert elicitation for adaptive management in the New South Wales Saving our Species program in Australia by revisiting six species management plans that were generated from tailored structured elicitation guidelines developed five years prior. Each species’ management plan included a defined scope, conceptual model, monitoring indicators, and estimated response to management curves under different scenarios. Experts reviewed the conceptual models after five years of management and compared the predicted response to management with observed monitoring data. In three of the six case studies, observed outcomes closely matched predictions. Where predictions diverged, factors such as unanticipated new threats and unexpected responses to interventions potentially contributed to discrepancies. However, in all cases, the structured approach provided a clear logic for planning, enabling managers to systematically refine their understanding. The conceptual models and response curves were valuable for collaborating, communicating, and generating hypotheses for unexpected results. This work demonstrates the value of tailored guidelines in supporting adaptive management processes and showcases the value of documenting expert knowledge in management settings with high uncertainty.

When different modes of communication are used in combination and for example convey visual and acoustic information, they form a multimodal signal. Frogs are best known for using acoustic communication, but many species also use visual or colour signals, some of which are dynamic, and may be combined with acoustic signals. In this context, the question of whether these two modes of communication reinforce the same message or offer different information is poorly understood. Male whirring tree frogs, Litoria revelata, use a multimodal signal during courtship, which combines a vocalisation and dynamic sexual dichromatism, with nuptial display colours shifting from brown or grey to bright yellow. Here, we examined the properties of the advertisement call and nuptial colour of vocalising male whirring tree frogs and tested whether the two signals were likely to reinforce each other or convey independent information. We found only weak associations between elements of male colouration and vocalisations, suggesting that advertisement calls and nuptial colour do not reinforce each other and that the signals may instead convey different information. Significance statement: Dynamic nuptial colour and vocalisation in combination is a relatively common multimodal signal in frogs but is unstudied. We looked for relationships between properties of colour and vocalisation in an Australian tree frog to explore whether the two sensory modes formed backup signals or multiple messages. We did not find predictive relationships between nuptial colour and vocalisation, supporting the multiple messages hypothesis and suggesting that nuptial colour is not necessarily directed at females for the purposes of mate attraction, potentially differing from the assumed function of the vocalisation. Our study is also the first to formally characterise aspects of dynamic sexual dichromatism in the whirring tree frog (Litoria revelata) and the first to describe the advertisement call of this species in its southern distribution. Whilst we do not specifically address the function of dynamic sexual dichromatism in this species, our findings do not contradict the existing literature in respect to it being a male-male directed signal.

The southern Australian endemic genus Geocrinia Blake 1973 (Anura: Myobatrachidae) currently contains seven species, with five restricted to Western Australia and two in the south-eastern states covering parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. All species have a modified life history with at least some or all of the larval stage being completed terrestrially. Four of the Western Australian species have terrestrial, non-feeding tadpoles nourished by yolk until metamorphosis. The remaining species have a biphasic development with embryos developing on land followed by an aquatic tadpole stage. The presence of species groups within the Geocrinia has been recognised since the 1970s, with all relevant subsequent studies supporting a model of two groups within the genus, recovered as reciprocally monophyletic in phylogenetic analyses. We examined character traits of the seven recognised Geocrinia species, concluding that distinction of the two monophyletic groups is supported by differences in life history strategy, larval morphology, adult morphology, call structure, breeding season and geographic distribution. The differences between the two groups correspond to phylogenetic structuring for all traits except distribution. Given reciprocal monophyly, and greater variation in traits than present within other myobatrachid genera, we conclude that the two groups should be given generic distinction. We therefore describe a new genus, Anstisia gen. nov., for four Western Australian Geocrinia species, retaining three species in Geocrinia. This increases the number of recognised myobatrachid genera to 14: five are endemic to south-western Australia.