Sarika Munot

Background/Objectives: The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) following advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) surgery has not been extensively studied. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of AKI and identify preoperative and intraoperative predictors in patients undergoing advanced EOC cytoreduction using both traditional statistics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) modelling. Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 134 patients with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of advanced EOC (FIGO Stage III-IV) who underwent surgical cytoreduction between January 2021 and December 2022 at a UK tertiary referral centre. AKI was diagnosed according to the KDIGO criteria. Data on 22 patient variables were extracted, including age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), procedure length, surgical complexity, and length of hospital stay. Logistic regression analysis was used for feature selection to identify AKI predictors, and an extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) model was applied to all variables related to AKI events. Results: The incidence of postoperative AKI was 6.72% (n=9). Predictive factors for AKI included younger age (OR = 0.942, p=0.037), lower CCI (OR = 0.415, p=0.015), longer procedure duration (OR = 1.006, p=0.019), and greater surgical effort (OR = 1.427, p=0.007). Patients with perioperative AKI experienced a doubling in the length of hospital stay (p=0.008). Mortality rates were similar between patients with and without AKI. AI-driven algorithms highlighted the complexity of AKI prediction and provided individual risk profiles, enabling future stratification and prompting different frequencies of AKI monitoring following cytoreduction. Conclusions: Predicting AKI is a complex task. This study found a lower-than-expected incidence of AKI following advanced EOC cytoreductive surgery. AKI is linked to heightened surgical risk-taking, underscoring the need for improved guidelines focusing on postoperative monitoring for targeted patients. Artificial Intelligence offers the potential for personalized AKI prediction.

There is no well-defined threshold for intra-operative blood transfusion (BT) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) surgery. To address this, we devised a Machine Learning (ML)-driven prediction algorithm aimed at prompting and elucidating a communication alert for BT based on anticipated peri-operative events independent of existing BT policies. We analyzed data from 403 EOC patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery between 2014 and 2019. The estimated blood volume (EBV), calculated using the formula EBV = weight × 80, served for setting a 10% EBV threshold for individual intervention. Based on known estimated blood loss (EBL), we identified two distinct groups. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves revealed satisfactory results for predicting events above the established threshold (AUC 0.823, 95% CI 0.76–0.88). Operative time (OT) was the most significant factor influencing predictions. Intra-operative blood loss exceeding 10% EBV was associated with OT > 250 min, primary surgery, serous histology, performance status 0, R2 resection and surgical complexity score > 4. Certain sub-procedures including large bowel resection, stoma formation, ileocecal resection/right hemicolectomy, mesenteric resection, bladder and upper abdominal peritonectomy demonstrated clear associations with an elevated interventional risk. Our findings emphasize the importance of obtaining a rough estimate of OT in advance for precise prediction of blood requirements.

There is no well-defined threshold for intra-operative blood transfusion (BT) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) surgery. We developed a Machine Learning (ML)-driven prediction algorithm to trigger and explain a communication alert for BT based on anticipated peri-operative events irrespective of BT policies. We analysed prospectively collected data from 403 EOC patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery between 2014 and 2019. We calculated the estimated blood volume (EBV) using the formula EBV = weight x 80 and set off 10%EBV as threshold for individual intervention. Based on the known estimated blood loss (EBL) we identified two groups. We employed Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for performance metrics. The model performance for the above threshold prediction was satisfactory (AUC 0.823, 95% CI 0.76-0.88). The top feature commonly shared between interrogators was operative time (OT). Intra-operative blood loss of at least 10%EBV was associated with OT>250 minutes, primary surgery, serous histology, performance status 0, R2 resection and surgical complexity score >4. Large bowel resection, stoma formation, ileocecal resection/right hemicolectomy, mesenteric resection, bladder and upper abdominal peritonectomy were amongst sub-procedures clearly associated with increased intervention risk. Precise prediction of blood requirements is not possible unless a rough estimate of OT is known in advance.

Background: The Peritoneal Carcinomatosis Index (PCI) and the Intra-operative Mapping for Ovarian Cancer (IMO), to a lesser extent, have been universally validated in advanced-stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) to describe the extent of peritoneal dissemination and are proven to be powerful predictors of the surgical outcome with an added sensitivity of assessment at laparotomy of around 70%. This leaves room for improvement because the two-dimensional anatomic scoring model fails to reflect the patient’s real anatomy, as seen by a surgeon. We hypothesized that tumor dissemination in specific anatomic locations can be more predictive of complete cytoreduction (CC0) and survival than PCI and IMO tools in EOC patients. (2) Methods: We analyzed prospectively data collected from 508 patients with FIGO-stage IIIB-IVB EOC who underwent cytoreductive surgery between January 2014 and December 2019 at a UK tertiary center. We adapted the structured ESGO ovarian cancer report to provide detailed information on the patterns of tumor dissemination (cancer anatomic fingerprints). We employed the extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) to model only the variables referring to the EOC disseminated patterns, to create an intra-operative score and judge the predictive power of the score alone for complete cytoreduction (CC0). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were then used for performance comparison between the new score and the existing PCI and IMO tools. We applied the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) framework to support the feature selection of the narrated cancer fingerprints and provide global and local explainability. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox regression. (3) Results: An intra-operative disease score was developed based on specific weights assigned to the cancer anatomic fingerprints. The scores range from 0 to 24. The XGBoost predicted CC0 resection (area under curve (AUC) = 0.88 CI = 0.854–0.913) with high accuracy. Organ-specific dissemination on the small bowel mesentery, large bowel serosa, and diaphragmatic peritoneum were the most crucial features globally. When added to the composite model, the novel score slightly enhanced its predictive value (AUC = 0.91, CI = 0.849–0.963). We identified a “turning point”, ≤5, that increased the probability of CC0. Using conventional logistic regression, the new score was superior to the PCI and IMO scores for the prediction of CC0 (AUC = 0.81 vs. 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). In multivariate Cox analysis, a 1-point increase in the new intra-operative score was associated with poorer progression-free (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03–1.09, p < 0.005) and overall survival (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01–1.07), by 4% and 6%, respectively. (4) Conclusions: The presence of cancer disseminated in specific anatomical sites, including small bowel mesentery, large bowel serosa, and diaphragmatic peritoneum, can be more predictive of CC0 and survival than the entire PCI and IMO scores. Early intra-operative assessment of these areas only may reveal whether CC0 is achievable. In contrast to the PCI and IMO scores, the novel score remains predictive of adverse survival outcomes.

(1) Background: Length of stay (LOS) has been suggested as a marker of the effectiveness of short-term care. Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies could help monitor hospital stays. We developed an AI-based novel predictive LOS score for advanced-stage high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) patients following cytoreductive surgery and refined factors significantly affecting LOS. (2) Methods: Machine learning and deep learning methods using artificial neural networks (ANN) were used together with conventional logistic regression to predict continuous and binary LOS outcomes for HGSOC patients. The models were evaluated in a post-hoc internal validation set and a Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to demonstrate the clinical feasibility of sophisticated LOS predictions. (3) Results: For binary LOS predictions at differential time points, the accuracy ranged between 70–98%. Feature selection identified surgical complexity, pre-surgery albumin, blood loss, operative time, bowel resection with stoma formation, and severe postoperative complications (CD3–5) as independent LOS predictors. For the GUI numerical LOS score, the ANN model was a good estimator for the standard deviation of the LOS distribution by ± two days. (4) Conclusions: We demonstrated the development and application of both quantitative and qualitative AI models to predict LOS in advanced-stage EOC patients following their cytoreduction. Accurate identification of potentially modifiable factors delaying hospital discharge can further inform services performing root cause analysis of LOS.

(1) Background: Surgical cytoreduction for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is a complex procedure. Encompassed within the performance skills to achieve surgical precision, intra-operative surgical decision-making remains a core feature. The use of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) could potentially interpret the influence of human factors on the surgical effort for the cytoreductive outcome in question; (2) Methods: The retrospective cohort study evaluated 560 consecutive EOC patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery between January 2014 and December 2019 in a single public institution. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithms were employed to develop the predictive model, including patient- and operation-specific features, and novel features reflecting human factors in surgical heuristics. The precision, recall, F1 score, and area under curve (AUC) were compared between both training algorithms. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework was used to provide global and local explainability for the predictive model; (3) Results: A surgical complexity score (SCS) cut-off value of five was calculated using a Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve, above which the probability of incomplete cytoreduction was more likely (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.644; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.598–0.69; sensitivity and specificity 34.1%, 86.5%, respectively; p = 0.000). The XGBoost outperformed the DNN assessment for the prediction of the above threshold surgical effort outcome (AUC = 0.77; 95% [CI] 0.69–0.85; p < 0.05 vs. AUC 0.739; 95% [CI] 0.655–0.823; p < 0.95). We identified “turning points” that demonstrated a clear preference towards above the given cut-off level of surgical effort; in consultant surgeons with 7, in a surgical environment with the optimization of infrastructural support. (4) Conclusions: Using XAI, we explain how intra-operative decisions may consider human factors during EOC cytoreduction alongside factual knowledge, to maximize the magnitude of the selected trade-off in effort. XAI techniques are critical for a better understanding of Artificial Intelligence frameworks, and to enhance their incorporation in medical applications.