América Paz Durán

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF), developed under the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), serves as a catalyst for advancing new scenarios and models focused on biodiversity and ecosystem services within the broader research community. In particular, the framework facilitates the development of scenarios and models that can help guide change processes toward desirable futures for nature and people. This paper assesses 31 studies that have engaged with the NFF since its introduction in 2020, aiming to identify which research areas have been addressed, and where development needs remain. The applications exhibit a large diversity in terms of locations, spatial scales, methods, outputs, and stakeholder involvement. The most common use of the framework has been in developing visions and scenarios. Nearly all studies engaged with diverse values of nature through the framework’s fundamental value perspectives: ‘Nature for Society’, ‘Nature for Nature’, and ‘Nature as Culture/One with Nature’. While the framework is generally perceived as useful, challenges remain in integrating the NFF across multiple scales and fully incorporating plural values, particularly in measuring relational aspects and avoiding Western-centric biases. Future research priorities include developing integrated, quantitative studies and exploring transformative pathways to enhance the framework's effectiveness in driving sustainable outcomes. Overall, the growing body of work using the NFF provides a strong foundation for distilling best practices, facilitating large-scale applications, and achieving the framework's objectives.

Human-driven habitat loss is recognized as the greatest cause of the biodiversity crisis, yet to date we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic changes in habitat extent on species’ extinctions. Existing metrics either fail to consider species identity or focus solely on recent habitat losses. The persistence score approach developed by Durán et al . (Durán et al. 2020 Methods Ecol. Evol . 11 , 910–921 (doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427) represented an important development by combining species’ ecologies and land-cover data while considering the cumulative and non-linear impact of past habitat loss on species’ probability of extinction. However, it is computationally demanding, limiting its global use and application. Here we couple the persistence score approach with high-performance computing to generate global maps of what we term the LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions) metric for 30 875 species of terrestrial vertebrates at 1 arc-min resolution (3.4 km ² at the equator). These maps provide quantitative estimates, for the first time, of the marginal changes in the expected number of extinctions (both increases and decreases) caused by converting remaining natural vegetation to agriculture, and restoring farmland to natural habitat. We demonstrate statistically that this approach integrates information on species richness, endemism and past habitat loss. Our resulting maps can be used at scales from 0.5–1000 km ² and offer unprecedented opportunities to estimate the impact on extinctions of diverse actions that affect change in land cover, from individual dietary choices through to global protected area development. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue ‘Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future’.

Human-driven habitat loss is recognised as the greatest cause of biodiversity loss yet to date we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic changes in habitat extent on species’ extinctions. Existing metrics either fail to consider species identity or focus solely on recent habitat losses. The persistence score approach developed by Durán et al. (2020) (1) represented an important development by combining species’ ecologies and land-cover data whilst considering the cumulative and non-linear impact of past habitat loss on species’ probability of extinction. However, it is computationally demanding, limiting its global use and application. Here we couple the persistence score approach with high-performance computing to generate global maps of what we term the LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions) metric for 29772 species of terrestrial vertebrates at 1 arc-minute resolution (3.4km2 at the equator). These maps provide quantitative estimates, for the first time, of the marginal changes in the expected number of extinctions (both increases and decreases) caused by (1) converting remaining natural vegetation to agriculture, and (2) restoring farmland to natural habitat. We demonstrate statistically that this approach integrates information on species richness, endemism, and past habitat loss. Our resulting maps can be used to 10% certainty at scales from 0.5-1000km2, and offer unprecedented opportunities to estimate the impact on extinctions of diverse actions that change land cover, from individual dietary choices through to global protected area development.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Incorporating the assessment of ecosystem services into land management decisions is increasingly recognized as an opportunity to support sustainable development. This, however, can be particularly challenging within the productive sector, a highly technical system often driven by multi‐level private entities. Here we present five key challenges, and suggest their corresponding solutions, when promoting the operationalization of ecosystem services within agribusiness. The challenges we developed are as follows: (a) building a common understanding of ecosystem services; (b) navigating strong power dynamics; (c) a highly technical system with diverse types of expertise; (d) limited understanding of the opportunity costs of alternative practices and (e), dealing with uncertainty. We draw on our experience generated through the Wine, Climate Change and Biodiversity programme, a science‐based initiative promoting the conservation of biodiversity and strategic use of ecosystem services in Chilean vineyards. Synthesis and applications. This perspective piece provides advice to scientists and practitioners on how to navigate technical and practical challenges when promoting the incorporation of ecosystem services into agricultural management. While the assessment of ecosystem services can be a highly technical process, its successful integration into land management decisions relies on active engagement, balancing expectations and an ability to construct a shared understanding among different stakeholders. The approaches suggested here rely on principles of co‐production and are illustrated with examples that are transferable to other crop and geographical contexts.

Further progress in reducing biodiversity loss relies on the improved quantification of the connections between drivers of habitat loss and subsequent biodiversity impacts. To this end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific human activities and changes in biodiversity state, accounting for both the ecology of different species and the cumulative effects of historical habitat losses. These characteristics are not currently captured within a single metric. Here, we develop a globally applicable methodological framework that uses freely and publicly available datasets to quantify the relative impacts of anthropogenic activities on biodiversity. We use species‐specific habitat suitability models to link specific land uses to ensuing changes in the likelihood that local populations of those species will persist. To illustrate our approach, we assess the impacts of soy expansion and other land uses within the Brazilian Cerrado on over 2,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and plants for three periods between 2000 and 2014. Our results showed that mammals and plants suffered the greatest overall reduction of suitable habitat. However, among endemic and near‐endemic species—which face greatest risk of global extinction from habitat conversion in the Cerrado—birds and mammals were the most affected groups. While conversion of natural vegetation to grassland and planted pastures were together responsible for most of the biodiversity impact of recent changes, soy expansion (via direct conversion of natural vegetation) had the greatest impact per unit area. The total biodiversity impact of recent land‐use change was concentrated in the southern states of the Cerrado—Minas Geráis, Goiás and Mato Grosso—but the impact on biodiversity of production of soy was greatest within the agricultural frontiers of Bahía and Piauí. The flexibility of our approach to examine linkages between biodiversity loss and specific human activities has clear potential to better characterize the pathways by which habitat loss drivers operate. Its capacity to incorporate species‐specific ecological needs, through a globally applicable methodology, can improve the tangibility of biodiversity loss assessments.

Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO₂e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO₂e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks.

Aim: Quantifying connections between the global drivers of habitat loss and biodiversity impact is vital for decision-makers promoting responsible land-use. To that end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific anthropogenic activities and changes in biodiversity state. However, for biodiversity, it is challenging to deliver integrated information on its multiple dimensions (i.e. species richness, endemicity) and keep it practical. Here, we developed a biodiversity footprint indicator that can i) capture the status of different species groups, ii) link biodiversity impact to specific human activities, and iii) be adapted to the most applicable scale for the decision context. Location: Cerrado Biome, Brazil Methods: We illustrate this globally-applicable approach for the case of soybean expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado. Using species-specific habitat suitability models, we assessed the impact of soy expansion and other land uses over 2,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and plants for three time periods between 2000 and 2014. Results: Overall, plants suffered the greatest reduction of suitable habitat. However, among endemic and near-endemic species – which face greatest risk of global extinction from habitat conversion in the Cerrado - birds were the most affected group. While planted pastures and cropland expansion were together responsible for most of the absolute biodiversity footprint, soy expansion via direct conversion of natural vegetation had the greatest impact per unit area. The total biodiversity footprint over the period was concentrated in the southern states of Minas Geráis, Goiás and Mato Grosso, but the soy footprint was proportionally higher in those northern states (such as Bahía and Piauí) which belong to the new agricultural frontier. Main conclusions: The ability and flexibility of our approach to examine linkages between biodiversity loss and specific human activities has substantial potential to better characterise the pathways by which habitat loss drivers operate.