Ebenezer Kwadwo Siabi

Landfill and dumpsite fires are a recurring but structurally under-addressed dimension of municipal solid waste management, releasing toxic compounds and uncontrolled methane emissions while damaging the infrastructure that would otherwise capture that methane. This study aimed to develop and validate a replicable Fire Risk Index (FRI) for landfills and dumpsites, integrating Hazard, Vulnerability, and Exposure across 22 factors weighted using the Rank Order Centroid method. Vulnerability emerged as the dominant component (combined weight of 0.45), ahead of Hazard (0.33) and Exposure (0.22), pointing to site management, rather than climate alone, as the most actionable lever for risk reduction. The methodology was validated at eleven pilot sites in Chile and Ghana (FRI 1.04–2.06, no site below the medium-risk threshold) and subsequently applied to Chile’s complete national inventory of 104 disposal sites using a three-tiered data collection approach. Under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, the climate-driven increment in risk is projected to be uneven across Chile, most pronounced in the Northern Macrozone. A dedicated sensitivity analysis found that three methane-related factors, waste composition, leachate control, and gas capture status, jointly account for 18.9% of the FRI’s total weight and can alone shift a site’s risk classification by a full category. These findings position the FRI as an evidence-based tool linking fire risk management to methane mitigation, with direct applications for landfill licensing, incident reporting, and climate adaptation planning across Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study assesses flood susceptibility in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana, one of West Africa’s most flood-prone areas by employing the Frequency Ratio (FR) model. The analysis integrates a range of environmental and meteorological variables alongside non-meteorological factors in the susceptibility mapping. The model yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) score of 0.82, indicating reliable flood susceptibility predictions. Various factors such as elevation, slope, geology, distance from urban, and stream power index significantly influence flood susceptibility. The spatial distribution of baseline susceptibility zones reveals coastal and northeastern areas as highly susceptible. Projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios depict a dynamic susceptibility landscape, emphasizing shifts in susceptibility levels. Notably, SSP2 and SSP3 foresee an increase in high and very high susceptibility zones. For district and town-level dynamics, districts like Weija Gbawe and towns along the coastline consistently exhibit very high susceptibility. The spatial distribution of building footprints shows a notable concentration within high and very high flood susceptibility zones, highlighting significant exposure risks to both the population and critical infrastructure. For example, over 780,000 and 810,000 building footprints, representing 3.12 million and 3.24 million people, are projected to experience high flood susceptibility under SSP2 and SSP3, respectively. This comprehensive assessment provides critical insights for flood management decisions in cities, emphasizing the importance of considering various factors in understanding and mitigating flood risks in West Africa and globally.

This study evaluates flood susceptibility and risk on Bulk Supply Points in the Greater Accra region (GAR) using a Frequency Ratio model based on 15 flood conditioning factors. The model explores the influence of natural, meteorological and anthropogenic factors on flooding occurrences under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and assesses flood risks at Bulk Supply Points (BSPs). Flood susceptibility mapping was conducted for both current and future periods under various SSP scenarios. Results reveal that elevation, slope, soil type, distance from urban areas, and SPI are the most influential factors contributing to flooding susceptibility in the region. The current flood map, about 37% of the total area of GAR categorized under the moderate flood-susceptible zone category followed by about 30% categorized under the low flood-vulnerable zone. However, about 16% was categorized under the very high flood-vulnerable zone. The study projects increasing flood susceptibility under the SSP scenarios with intensification under SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. For instance, the areas categorized as high and very high flood susceptibility zones are projected to expand to approximately 32% and 26% each by 2055 under SSP3. The study also assesses flood risks at Bulk Supply Points (BSPs), highlighting the escalating susceptibility of power assets to flooding under different scenarios. For instance, in the very high scenario, flooding is estimated to reach 640 h in 2045 and exceed 800 h in 2055—more than double the 2020 baseline. The analysis shows the bulk supply points face increasing flood susceptibility, with risks escalating most sharply under the severe climate change SSP3 and SSP5 scenarios. Over 75% of BSPs are expected to fall in the low- to medium-risk categories across SSPs while more than 50% of BSPs are within medium- to high-risk categories in all scenarios except SSP1, reflecting the impact of climate change. SSP3 and SSP5 stand out with over 60% of BSPs facing high or very high flooding risks by 2055. It indicates moderate resilience with proper adaptation but highlights potential disruptions in critical infrastructure, such as BSPs, during persistent flooding. The findings of the study are expected to inform Ghana’s contributions towards addressing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 11 and 13 in Ghana.

Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa.