Kamilla Mussina

Non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus, represent leading causes of mortality worldwide. Elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is a major metabolic risk factor for ischaemic heart disease (IHD). However, comprehensive analyses of diabetes-attributable IHD burden in Kazakhstan remain limited. This study aimed to assess the burden of IHD attributable to elevated FPG in Kazakhstan and to analyse temporal trends and sex-specific differences from 1990 to 2023. Methods. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database. High FPG was defined according to the GBD framework as fasting plasma glucose exceeding the theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 4.9–5.4 mmol/L. Absolute numbers, crude rates, and age-standardized rates of deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs were examined. Temporal trends were assessed across three periods (1990–2000, 2000–2010, 2010–2023), and percentage changes were calculated to evaluate long-term patterns and sex differences. Results. In 2023, diabetes-attributable IHD accounted for 3,307 deaths (95% UI: 2,649–4,160) and 65,426 DALYs (52,668–83,043) in Kazakhstan. Premature mortality dominated the burden, with YLLs contributing 91.3% of total DALYs. Although absolute deaths were higher among females (1,979 vs 1,328), age-standardized DALY rates were consistently higher in males across all years, with the male-to-female rate ratio exceeding 1.4 throughout the study period. Age-standardized DALY rates demonstrated a non-linear trend: rates increased by 38.0% between 1990 and 2000, followed by a decline of 29.3% during 2000–2010, and a further reduction of 40.2% during 2010–2023. Over the full study period, age-standardized DALY rates fell by 41.7% overall (males −48.8%; females −37.9%). Conclusions. Despite a substantial decline in age-standardized rates, IHD attributable to elevated FPG remains a significant public health burden in Kazakhstan, driven predominantly by premature mortality and disproportionately affecting males. The findings highlight the importance of sex-specific approaches and underscore the need for strengthened national strategies focusing on diabetes prevention, early detection, and effective management to reduce cardiovascular complications.

Background/Objectives: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) significantly elevates the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), particularly in Asian populations where both conditions are epidemic. While shared genetic factors contribute to this comorbidity, evidence from Asian cohorts remains fragmented, with limited focus on population-specific variants. This meta-analysis synthesizes evidence on genetic variants associated with CAD risk in Asian patients with T2DM. Methods: We systematically searched several databases according to the PRISMA statement and checklist. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random-effects models, with heterogeneity assessed via I² and Cochran’s Q, and publication bias via funnel plots and Egger’s test. Results: In total, data on 11,268 subjects were reviewed, including 4668 cases and 6600 controls. Among 950 identified studies, 18 met eligibility criteria, and 14 studies provided sufficient data for the meta-analysis. The random-effects pooled estimate across all studied variants was not statistically significant (OR = 1.16 [95% CI: 0.68–2.00]; z = 0.56, p = 0.58). However, analysis of individual loci revealed gene-specific associations with CAD among this population: PCSK1 gene (OR = 2.12 [95% CI: 1.26–3.52]; p < 0.05; weight = 8.77%), GLP1R gene (OR = 2.25 [95% CI: 1.27–3.97]; p < 0.01; weight = 8.62%). ADIPOQ gene (OR = 8.00 [95% CI: 2.34–27.14]; p < 0.01; weight = 6.35%). Several genes were associated with an elevated risk of CAD: PCSK1 gene (OR = 2.12 [95% CI: 1.26–3.52]; p < 0.05; weight = 8.77%), GLP1R gene (OR = 2.25 [95% CI: 1.27–3.97]; p < 0.01; weight = 8.62%) and ADIPOQ gene (OR = 8.00 [95% CI: 2.34–27.14]; p < 0.01; weight = 6.35%). Several genes were associated with possible protective effects: ACE gene (OR = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.23–0.73]; p < 0.01; weight = 8.57%), Q192R gene (OR = 0.20 [95% CI: 0.08–0.52]; p < 0.001; weight = 7.41%). Heterogeneity was substantial (τ² = 0.78; I² = 81.95%; Q (13) = 64.67, p < 0.001). Conclusions: This first meta-analysis of genetic variants associated with CAD in Asian populations with T2DM identified specific locus-level associations implicating lipid metabolism, incretin signaling, and oxidative stress pathways. The lack of a significant pooled effect, alongside high heterogeneity, underscores the complexity and population-specific nature of this genetic architecture. These findings suggest that effective precision risk stratification may depend more on specific variants than on a broad polygenic signal, highlighting the need for further research in a larger, distinct sample size.

Background: Current evidence suggests that joint complaints can represent an extra-intestinal manifestation in patients with Celiac Disease (CD) without any rheumatic comorbidity. However, the prevalence of joint complaints in the context of both CD and rheumatic disease is not known. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of joint complaints in patients with CD. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases for studies reporting joint complaints in patients with CD between 1 January 1990 and 26 November 2024. Search results were screened by two independent reviewers. The pooled prevalence of joint complaints was estimated in meta-analysis using a random effects model. We conducted stratified analyses by region, age (adults vs. children), and study sample size. The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tool was used to evaluate the quality of included studies, and publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger’s test. The study protocol was pre-registered in the PROSPERO database and the results were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. Results: A total of 7414 publications were rendered in the search. Of these, 226 were reviewed in full text and 27 were included in the meta-analysis. Among 6901 patients with CD without any concomitant rheumatic diagnosis, 530 had joint complaints, yielding a weighted pooled prevalence of 10.7% (95%CI: 6.9–15.1). In meta-regression analysis, no association between the prevalence of joint complaints and patients’ clinical characteristics or demographics was found. Conclusions: This meta-analysis indicates that joint complaints in patients with CD without any specific rheumatic comorbidity are not uncommon. Increased awareness of joint complaints in CD is important to improve the diagnosis and clinical care of these patients.

The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in children aged 0-17 in Kazakhstan was explored using aggregated large-scale healthcare data from the unified national electronic health system (UNEHS) in 2014-2021. Incidence, period prevalence, and mortality rates per 100,000 population at risk were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression modelling and Kaplan-Meier methodology were used. The follow-up period was from the initial date of T1DM until death or the end of the follow-up (31 December 2021). Among the 11,088 patients, the incidence rate of T1DM decreased from 28.1 to 24.5 per 100,000 population, whereas the period prevalence rate increased from 48.8 to 179.1, and the mortality rate rose from 0.18 to 0.67. Diagnosis at age 0-1 years (hazards ratio [HR] 4.42), presence of nephropathy (HR 8.94) or neoplasms (HR 1.64) were associated with a higher risk of death, while the presence of retinopathy (HR 0.31) was associated with a lower risk of death.

Background: HIV is a growing public health burden that threatens thousands of people in Kazakhstan. Countries around the world, including Kazakhstan, are facing significant problems in predicting HIV infection prevalence. It is crucial to understand the epidemiological trends of infectious diseases and to monitor the prevalence of HIV in a long-term perspective. Thus, in this study, we aimed to forecast the prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan for 10 years from 2020 to 2030 by using mathematical modeling and time series analysis. Methods: We use statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and a nonlinear epidemic Susceptible-Infected (SI) model to forecast the HIV infection prevalence rate in Kazakhstan. We estimated the parameters of the models using open data on the prevalence of HIV infection among women and men (aged 15– 49 years) in Kazakhstan provided by the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics. We also predict the effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) control measures on the prevalence rate. Results: The ARIMA (1,2,0) model suggests that the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan will increase from 0.29 in 2021 to 0.47 by 2030. On the other hand, the SI model suggests that this parameter will increase to 0.60 by 2030 based on the same data. Both models were statistically significant by Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc) score and by the goodness of fit. HIV prevention under the PrEP strategy on the SI model showed a significant effect on the reduction of the HIV prevalence rate. Conclusion: This study revealed that ARIMA (1,2,0) predicts a linear increasing trend, while SI forecasts a nonlinear increase with a higher prevalence of HIV. Therefore, it is recommended for healthcare providers and policymakers use this model to calculate the cost required for the regional allocation of healthcare resources. Moreover, this model can be used for planning effective healthcare treatments.

Background: According to the National infectious disease monitoring report, there is a fluctuating pattern of incidence of chickenpox in the country, but there are no studies reporting the epidemiological situation in Kazakhstan. There is a discernable association of varicella epidemiology with climate, particularly temperature dependency. We aimed to analyze the incidence and seasonality of chickenpox in the absence of universal varicella vaccination in Kazakhstan. Material and methods: A retrospective analysis of the long-term dynamics of chickenpox was carried out, and data he state report

Background: Vaccine-preventable diseases such as pertussis, measles, and influenza remain among the most significant medical and socioeconomic issues in Kazakhstan, despite significant vaccination achievements. Thus, here we aimed to analyze the long-term dynamics and provide information on the current epidemiology of pertussis, measles, and influenza in Kazakhstan. Methods: A retrospective analysis of the long-term dynamics of infectious diseases was carried out using the data from the statistical collections for 2010-2020 and the Unified Payment System from 2014 to 2020. Results: During the 2010-2020 years, the long-term dynamics show an unequal distribution of pertussis, measles, and influenza-related morbidity. In comparison with earlier years, registration of infectious disease was the highest in 2019 and 2020. The incidence cases among registered infectious diseases in 2019 were: pertussis-147, measles-13,326, and in 2020: influenza-2,678. High incidence rates have been documented in Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, Mangystau regions, and the cities of Shymkent and Nur-Sultan. The incidence varies depending on the seasonality: pertussis (summer-autumn), measles (winter-spring), and influenza (mostly in winter). Conclusion: The findings highlight the importance of focusing more on the characteristics of the epidemic process of vaccine-preventable diseases in order to assess the effectiveness of implemented measures and verify new routes in strengthening the epidemiological surveillance system.

Proteinuria is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and associated complications. However, there is insufficient information on individual protein components in urine and the severity of CKD. We aimed to investigate urinary proteomics and its association with proteinuria and kidney function in early-stage CKD and in healthy individuals. A 24 h urine sample of 42 individuals (21-CKD and 21-healthy individuals) was used for mass spectrometry-based proteomics analysis. An exponentially modified protein abundance index (emPAI) was calculated for each protein. Data were analyzed by Mascot software using the SwissProt database and bioinformatics tools. Overall, 298 unique proteins were identified in the cohort; of them, 250 proteins belong to the control group with median (IQR) emPAI 39.1 (19–53) and 142 proteins belong to the CKD group with median (IQR) emPAI 67.8 (49–117). The level of 24 h proteinuria positively correlated with emPAI (r = 0.390, p = 0.011). The emPAI of some urinary proteomics had close positive (ALBU, ZA2G, IGKC) and negative (OSTP, CD59, UROM, KNG1, RNAS1, CD44, AMBP) correlations (r < 0.419, p < 0.001) with 24 h proteinuria levels. Additionally, a few proteins (VTDB, AACT, A1AG2, VTNC, and CD44) significantly correlated with kidney function. In this proteomics study, several urinary proteins correlated with proteinuria and kidney function. Pathway analysis identified subpathways potentially related to early proteinuric CKD, allowing the design of prospective studies that explore their response to therapy and their relationship to long-term outcomes.