Xianghao Zhao

Reducing fertilizer usage is a crucial measure for achieving high-quality development in Chinese agriculture. Utilizing panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 2004 to 2019, this study empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between fertilizer application and grain production, exploring the underlying mechanisms. The study findings reveal that the application of fertilizers maintains a positive impact on grain production. The two variables will demonstrate a dynamic alternation between "strong decoupling" and "retreat decoupling," suggesting that grain production may either increase or gradually decline, while fertilizer application exhibits a decreasing trend. Mechanism analysis reveals a distinct substitution relationship between fertilizer use efficiency and application quantity. Increasing fertilizer use efficiency while reducing application quantity still facilitates the stable and increased production of grains. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the efficiency of fertilizer use has a more pronounced impact on grain yield in the eastern and western regions. Increasing fertilizer quantity is detrimental to wheat yield but has a promoting effect on corn yield. However, in the main grain-producing areas, increasing fertilizer quantity can enhance wheat yield but is unfavorable for the overall grain yield. Additionally, nitrogen fertilizer input has exceeded the optimal level compared to potassium fertilizer. Continuously increasing nitrogen fertilizer input will hinder the increase in grain yield. Therefore, there is a need to shift from the notion of "more fertilizer is better" and focus on improving fertilizer use efficiency to transition from the emphasis on "quantity" to "quality" of fertilizer application.

To examine the evolutionary pattern of livestock production activities in China, this paper analyzes the livestock production pattern from 1995 to 2020 using the models of center of gravity shift, spatial agglomeration and binary structure equilibrium index. The results show that: (1) overall, the degree of geographic agglomeration of China’s livestock industry shows a weak trend of enhancement, the center of gravity of production moves to the northwest, the main production areas gradually move to the three northern regions, and Inner Mongolia and Liaoning become emerging large livestock production provinces; (2) in terms of classification, there are obvious geographical characteristics in the movement of the center of gravity of production of various livestock products; some livestock product production is highly concentrated in a few provinces and produces (3) “Zhongtiao Mountains-Taihang Mountains” has become an important geographical division of spatial division of labor for livestock products in China, and the North China Plain and Loess Plateau on the left and right sides have become the landing areas of the center of gravity for the production of grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, respectively; 2006 was the peak of spatial concentration of livestock industry in China. 2006 is not only the peak inflection year of spatial concentration of livestock industry in China, but also the turning point of balanced development of grain-consuming livestock industry and herbivorous livestock industry. Therefore, following the intrinsic requirements of the new development concept on productivity layout, it is proposed to comprehensively implement the green spatial layout strategy, deeply promote the innovation of grass-livestock balance system, construct the green production mode of animal husbandry, coordinate and promote the “one place, one product” characteristic animal husbandry industrialization project and promote the transformation from a large country of animal husbandry production to a strong country of animal husbandry industry.