Rebecca Pabst

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing global health threat, largely driven by the human-mediated introduction of vector species beyond their native regions. Although only a few mosquito species have historically established populations outside their native ranges, the number of such invasions has increased rapidly in recent decades. Once established, these non-native invasive mosquitoes are difficult to control, emphasizing the need for proactive identification before introduction occurs. Here, we present a framework to predict invasion potential for 184 mosquito species of medical importance based on their ecological, life-history, and macroecological traits. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of 26 traits characterizing each species and used random forest models to relate these traits to the probabilities of introduction into non-native regions (before and after 1950, marking the onset of widespread trade globalization) and establishment following introduction. Models achieved moderate to good predictive performance (AUC = 0.78–0.85) and revealed that species native to Asia and Australia, adapted to human-made breeding sites, and associated with high-precipitation and thermally extreme environments were consistently more likely to be introduced or establish in non-native regions. Among species with no known invasion history, we identified 24 with high predicted introduction probabilities, of which 17 also showed high establishment probabilities. These results demonstrate that invasion potential can be inferred from species traits and provide a quantitative basis for proactive surveillance and prioritization of species most likely to be introduced in the future.

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing global health threat, largely driven by the human-mediated spread of vector species beyond their native regions. Although only a few mosquito species historically established populations outside their native ranges, many have expanded rapidly in recent decades. Once established, these invaders are notoriously difficult to control, emphasizing the need for proactive identification before human-mediated spread occurs. Here, we present a framework to anticipate invasion potential for 184 mosquito species of medical importance based on their ecological, life-history, and macroecological traits. We first compiled a comprehensive dataset of 26 traits characterizing each species. We then used random forest models to relate these traits with the probability of species being introduced in new regions (before and after 1950, marking the onset of widespread trade globalization), and of establishment following introduction. Models achieved moderate to good predictive performance (AUC = 0.78-0.85) and revealed that species native to Asia and Australia, adapted to human-made breeding sites, and tolerant of climatic extremes are consistently more likely to be introduced and to establish in non-native regions. Among species with no known invasion history, we identified 24 with higher potential to become future spreaders, of which 17 also exhibit high establishment probabilities (high-risk species). These results show that invasion potential can be inferred, to some extent, from intrinsic species traits and provide a quantitative basis for proactive surveillance, enabling prioritization of species most likely to become introduced in the future.

Mosquitoes are major vectors of human diseases, and their geographic expansion is primarily driven by the unintentional, human mediated introduction beyond their native ranges. Despite the substantial public health implications and rising numbers of disease outbreaks, a global picture of the introduction trends and the resulting range expansions of mosquitoes is missing. Here, we present a comprehensive and up-to-date compilation and analysis of reported first records of human disease vector mosquitoes worldwide. We show that 45 mosquito species (~25% of those known to transmit human pathogens) have been introduced worldwide, with 28 species having established in at least one region. From the 1950’s onwards, the introduction of new species has increased sharply, with 12 species recorded for the first time outside their native range since 2000 alone. Initially, most introduced species were native to Africa, but over time, Asian species have become more dominant. North America, Australia and Europe remain the main recipients. Our results highlight the role of global trade and transportation in mosquito spread and emphasizes the need for international cooperation to control their spread and potential threat to public health.

Mosquitoes are regarded as the most dangerous creatures on earth, spreading deadly pathogens through their bites. Human activities are driving range expansions of many mosquito species by unintentionally introducing them beyond their native ranges. Despite the often dire consequences for human health, a global picture of the introduction trends and the resulting range expansions of mosquitoes is missing. Here, we describe the global invasion patterns of mosquitoes that are vectors of human diseases and analyze the drivers shaping them. In addition, we provide the dataset compiled for these analyses which represent the most up-to-date standardized information on first records for this taxonomic group at a regional level. Our findings reveal that a total of 45 mosquito species have hitherto been introduced into regions outside their native range worldwide, representing 24% of those known to transmit human pathogens in the wild (i.e., outside experimental conditions), with 27 species successfully established. There has been a steep increase in introductions of emerging non-native mosquito species since the mid-20^th century when 28 species (62% of all introduced species) were recorded for the first time. In just the last two decades, 12 new species have been identified. The geography of introductions largely mirrors global trade and transportation flows. Initially, most introduced species were native to Africa, but over time, Asian species have become more dominant. North America, Australia and Europe have consistently been the primary recipients. Our results provide a foundation for addressing the increasing threat of non-native vector mosquitoes globally, emphasizing the need for international cooperation and comprehensive control measures to mitigate their impact on public health.

Spores from the fungus Pithomyces chartarum are commonly found on Azorean pastures. When consumed by cattle along with the grass, these spores cause health issues in the cattle, resulting in animal suffering and financial losses. For approximately two years, we monitored meteorological parameters using weather stations and collected and analyzed grass samples in a laboratory to control for the presence of spores. The data confirmed a connection between meteorology and sporulation, enabling the prediction of sporulation risk. To detect the presence of spores in pastures rather than predict it, we employed field spectrometry and Sentinel-2 reflectance data to measure the spectral signatures of grass while controlling for spores. Our findings indicate that meteorological variables from the past 90 days can be used to predict sporulation, which can enhance the accuracy of a web-based alert system used by farmers to manage the risk. We did not detect significant differences in spectral signatures between grass with and without spores. These studies contribute to a deeper understanding of P. chartarum sporulation and provide actionable information for managing cattle, ultimately improving animal welfare and reducing financial losses.

Coppice forests are socio-ecological systems especially rich in biodiversity. They have been transformed into high forest and abandoned across large areas of Europe over the past 200 years. Coppice loss is likely an important driver of insect declines. It is currently unclear whether habitat quality or decreasing connectivity of the remaining fragments is more important for the survival of insect populations. We related the abundance of two coppice-attached butterflies of conservation concern, Satyrium ilicis and Melitaea athalia , to indicators of habitat quality and habitat connectivity. We estimated butterfly densities using Distance Sampling along a successional gradient (time since last cut: 1–9 years; N = 130 plots) across one of the largest remaining simple oak-birch coppice landscapes in Central Europe. Both species reached abundance peaks within four to six years after the last cut, declining rapidly in abundance with subsequent succession. We found no evidence that coupe size, coppice availability and patch (= coupe) connectivity were related to the density of the species. Besides stand age, the cover of larval foodplants explained predicted butterfly densities well. Only Satyrium ilicis benefitted from high Red Deer densities. Implications for insect conservation: Our results suggest that habitat quality and sufficient availability of coppice of suitable age matters more than coupe size and fragmentation within a traditional managed coppice landscape. Coppice restoration aiming at the study species should ensure a shifting mosaic of successional habitat to provide a large availability of resprouting oak stools and blueberry vegetation that holds dense Melampyrum pratense stands.

The number of alien plant species is growing steadily across all world regions. These numbers tend to be exceptionally high in riparian ecosystems, often with substantial negative consequences for native species communities and ecosystem services provision. Here, we map the richness of invasive alien plant species in riparian ecosystems of continental Portugal, assess the relative importance of human and natural factors in shaping the uncovered patterns, and predict richness values along watercourses and at the municipal level for the whole study area. We found a higher richness of invasive alien plants in low altitudes and in downstream areas where human concentration is high. As time progresses, ongoing and increasing levels of socio-economic activity and globalization of plant trade will conceivably lead to a higher number of alien species becoming established. National and sub-national measures aiming to prevent and manage biological invasions in riparian ecosystems require coordinated efforts involving both local entities and those with responsibilities in the management of upstream catchment areas. These efforts must also be targeted to achieve future biodiversity protection goals as part of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.