Tian-Cheng Zhao

The concept of sustainable development as a consensus is being recognized and practiced by the international community, and how to promote China–ASEAN trade relations and stable and sustainable economic development is an important guarantee for the coordinated economic development of the region. This paper studies the trade relationship between China and the ten ASEAN countries by using the theory of ecological population evolution and determines the ecological trade relationship between China and the ten ASEAN countries by establishing the Lotka–Volterra model of the evolution of two populations—the relationship of competition, the relationship of partial benefit, and the relationship of mutually beneficial symbiosis—so as to analyze the degree of trade friction between the two sides and propose corresponding strategies for coordinated development of the regional economy. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, there is a competitive relationship between China, Brunei, and Vietnam, which may cause trade friction. China has a trade-biased relationship with Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which is less likely to cause trade friction. China’s trade with Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand is mutually beneficial. The possibility of trade friction is low, and the trade relationship between China and ASEAN as a whole is also mutually beneficial. On this basis, in order to further enhance the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and promote the coordinated development of the regional economy, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation areas, and actively investing in foreign direct investment.

The bilateral trade relationship between PRC and ASEAN is close. As early as 2012, China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN, and ASEAN has also taken the place of the United States as PRC’s second largest trading partner in 2019.This paper uses the theory of ecological population evolution, selects the total import and export volume of PRC and the ten ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019 as the data sample, studies the bilateral trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, analyzes the competition and symbiotic relationship of bilateral trade between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries and the possibility of trade friction according to the results, and proposes corresponding improvement strategies. According to the results of the population evolution competition model, China has a competitive relationship with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which is most likely to cause trade friction. China has a biased relationship with Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, which is more likely to cause trade friction. On this basis, in order to further strengthen the trade relations between PRC and the ten ASEAN countries, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on improving infrastructure, strengthening independent innovation, seeking cooperation fields and actively investing abroad.