Nikolaos Makrakis

Offshore high-pressure gas pipelines comprise critical infrastructure that often cross seismic regions for hundreds of kilometers. The intersection of such pipelines with seismic fault zones is frequently inevitable due to high costs or technical constraints of alternative routes. While typical mitigation measures, such as stronger materials or cross-sections and flexible joints, ensure pipeline integrity against earthquake-related geohazards, options for deep-water pipelines are more limited compared to onshore or even near-shore pipelines. This paper numerically investigates the efficiency of various mitigation approaches for surface-laid steel pipelines subjected to normal or reverse seismic faulting. Using ABAQUS finite-element software, the pipeline is simulated under realistic conditions for cohesive and non-cohesive seabed sediments. Critical fault displacements for different pipe steel materials, cross-sections, coatings, pressures, and orientations are calculated according to international standards. Results demonstrate that a 30° fault-pipe intersection angle is the most effective approach, increasing pipe’s capacity to fault dislocation by up to 90% for normal and 75% for reverse faults. Additionally, coating materials can increase a pipe’s resistance by up to 15%, whereas pressure difference variations may also have an impact. This study provides useful conclusions regarding the efficiency of the mitigation measures, the applicability of international standards, and the simulation of pipe–soil interaction.

High-pressure gas pipelines are significantly vulnerable to earthquake-related geohazards (tectonic faulting, slope instabilities, and/or soil liquefaction phenomena). Avoiding geohazardous areas is not always techno-economically feasible, as it would increase the length and cost of the infrastructure. Conversely, crossing these areas may adversely affect the structural performance of the pipeline, leading to unfeasible mitigation measures. Thus, selecting cost-effective, safe, and resilient routing is crucial. This study presents a GIS-based decision-support tool for optimal routing, taking into account, among other criteria, earthquake-related geohazards. The proposed tool considers not only the aforementioned but also more complex earthquake-related geohazards, such as secondary fault ruptures that are non-parallel or even perpendicular to the main fault, which might have been overlooked during the design of existing pipelines. To validate its effectiveness, the present tool is applied in a real case study in northern Greece, where the aforementioned earthquake-related geohazards coexist. Through a GIS-based multi-criteria decision method, various scenarios are examined by assigning different weights to the adopted criteria, and several cost-minimized routes are derived. This tool could be highly beneficial for the pipeline industry since it can assist operators and stakeholders in selecting the optimal pipeline route in geohazardous areas.

Climate change (CC) is expected to cause significant changes in weather patterns, leading to extreme phenomena. Specifically, the intensity of precipitation extremes is continuously escalating, even in regions with decreasing average precipitation levels. Given that CC leads to long-term shifts in weather patterns and may affect the precipitation characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and intensity) directly related to groundwater table fluctuations and soil erosion phenomena, it has the potential to significantly affect soil slope instabilities. In turn, slope stability and the structural integrity of nearby structures and infrastructure will be affected. Accordingly, the present paper focuses on the impact of CC on the geohazard of soil slope instability by considering both hydrological aspects, i.e., the impact on rainfall intensity on the groundwater table and the geotechnical aspects of this complex problem. The findings reveal that the impact of CC on potential slope instabilities can be detrimental or even beneficial, depending on the specific site and water conditions. Therefore, it is essential to do the following: (a) collect all the available data of the area of interest, (b) assess their variations over time, and (c) examine each potentially unstable slope on a case-by-case basis to properly mitigate this geohazard.

Submarine lifelines (pipelines and cables) often cross areas characterized by earthquake-related geohazards (tectonic faulting, landslides and seabed liquefaction). Avoiding geologically hazardous areas increases the length (i.e., cost), whereas a potential crossing may detrimentally affect the structural performance of the infrastructure, requiring more sophisticated design approaches and/or more costly and probably impractical deep sea condition-mitigation measures. Under such adverse conditions, a cost-effective and resilient lifeline route is deemed necessary. The current paper presents a smart decision-support tool for the optimal route selection of submarine cables, assessing whether the proposed routing could effectively cross a (seismically) geologically hazardous area. The GIS-based tool is based on an efficient methodology that combines a least-cost path analysis with a multi-criteria decision method. Accordingly, several routes can be derived for user-defined scenarios, by assigning different weight factors in the adopted design criteria and hazards. When crossing fault zones, the problem of fault-cable intersection is quantitatively assessed in a realistic manner via advanced numerical models. The optimal route can be selected by considering the potential cable distress (i.e., exceedance of allowable cable strains). This tool can be efficiently implemented for deriving the optimal route of energy and telecommunication offshore cables, as it is described in the examined real case studies.

Large-scale lifelines in seismic-prone regions very frequently cross areas that are characterized by active tectonic faulting, as complete avoidance might be techno-economically unfeasible. The resulting Permanent Ground Displacements (PGDs) constitute a major threat to such critical infrastructure. The current study numerically investigates the crucial impact of soil deposits, which usually cover the ruptured bedrock, on the ground displacement profile and the kinematic distress of natural gas pipelines. For this purpose, a decoupled numerical methodology, based on Finite Element Method (FEM), is adopted and a detailed parametric investigation is performed for various fault and soil properties. Moreover, the advanced capabilities of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are utilized, aiming to facilitate the fast and reliable assessment of soil response and pipeline strains due to seismic faulting, replacing time-consuming FEM computations. An extensive sensitivity analysis is performed to select the optimal architecture and training algorithm of the employed ANNs for both the geotechnical and structural parts of the decoupled approach, with suitable input and target values related to bedrock offset, fault and soil properties, surface PGDs, and pipeline strains. The proposed ANN-based approach can be efficiently applied by practice engineers in seismic design and route optimization of natural gas pipelines.