Artur I. Petrov

2026 marks 130 years since the first recorded road traffic accident (RTA) involving a motor vehicle (1896). Since then, generally accepted views, approaches, and practices (paradigms) for reducing road accidents have changed repeatedly in global science. One of the many innovative approaches to improving road safety is the entropy approach, which allows for the assessment and management of the structural quality of road safety processes. The purpose of this article is to present the author’s position on two controversial issues related to: – demonstrating the relevance of research tools using entropy assessments in studying the specifics of the structural quality of road safety systems; – arguing for the high information value of the «Relative Entropy Hn of Road Safety» indicator as an indicator of the structural quality of regional road safety systems. The main ideas, author’s methodology, and methodological apparatus for studying the structural quality of road safety processes using entropy assessments have previously been presented in articles published in the Russian and international scientific press. Based on the results of the research presented in this article, the authors conclude that the entropy approach is appropriate for assessing the regional specifics of road accident formation processes and demonstrate the statistical validity of using the Relative Entropy Hn of Road Safety indicator as the most important indicator of road safety management quality. The scientific novelty of the research results presented in this article lies in the argumentation for the «Relative Entropy Hn of ad Safety» indicator as a highly informative one from a statistical perspective. The practical significance of the research results is confirmed by specialists from the Road Safety Research Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, who are using the author’s methodology to study the quality of road safety management processes. Further research on the topic discussed in this article could focus on examining the structural quality of Russian regional vehicle fleets and its impact on road accidents associated with the poor technical condition of vehicles.

Approximately 1.25–1.30 million people die annually in road traffic accidents worldwide, and up to 50 million are injured. The UN General Assembly Resolution 74/229 emphasizes the utmost importance of addressing the issue of reducing road traffic accidents. Achieving the ambitious goal of reducing road traffic fatalities and injuries by at least 50% during 2021–2030 is associated with numerous challenges, one of which is ensuring the reliability of official statistics. The accuracy of official data in reflecting the actual situation depends on multiple factors: the quality of the data collection and identification system for road accidents, the responsibility of the officials, and, to a significant extent, the willingness and ability of those in charge to present desired outcomes as reality, thereby distorting the relevant statistics. The issue of inaccurate statistical data and its negative impact on subsequent socio-economic management processes has long been recognized. Different countries address this issue with varying degrees of success. Using data on the characteristics of the road traffic accident rate as an example, the problem of statistical data accuracy in Russia and African countries is considered. A comparison of such countries was chosen to illustrate the real problem of the low credibility of official statistical information available for analysis. Unfortunately, the low quality of statistical information does not allow for drawing accurate conclusions about the actual situation in Russia and African countries, and hence, competently and rationally managing socio-economic processes. This conclusion is based both on the analysis of the results of previous studies and on the original statistical analysis of officially available information.

The article is devoted to a study of the dynamics of improving road traffic safety in Russia over the past 20 years. Trends in changes in key indicators of road traffic safety in Russia are compared with similar values for other countries. Considerable attention is paid to an analysis of the level of realism in Russia’s plans regarding road traffic safety management in 2024–2030. Different forecast scenarios of changes in the human risk index in the Russian Federation for 2024–2030 are presented. Potential possibilities of improving road traffic safety measures in Russia are discussed.

Статья посвящена исследованию динамики повышения безопасности дорожного движения (БДД) в России в течение последних 20 лет. Российские тренды изменения основных показателей БДД сравниваются с аналогами в других странах. Существенное внимание уделено анализу реалистичности планов России в сфере обеспечения БДД в 2024-2030 гг. Представлены варианты прогноза изменения показателя социального риска в РФ на 2024-2030 гг. Обсуждаются потенциальные возможности совершенствования мер по обеспечению БДД в России.

The purpose of this article is to present new empirical data on the trends in improvement of road safety in Russian cities and to structure the nature of risks of fatalities in road traffic accidents. This study examined both the general trends in risks of fatal traffic accidents and the dynamics over time (2015–2023) of the structure of such risks. The research was conducted for four groups of Russian cities, differentiated by population size. The final conclusion of the study is the statement of a steady, progressive reduction in risks of fatalities in road traffic accidents from 2015 to 2023 that is common to all classification groups of Russian cities. A crucial aspect of the research was the study of the structural specifics of risks of fatalities in road traffic accidents for residents of Russian cities and the dynamics of these specifics over time. The analysis made it possible to establish a precise definition of the concept of Road Safety Risk and differentiate this concept into three components—the probability of an accident, the scale of an accident and the severity of the consequences of an accident. The scale and severity of an accident together is identical to “the totality of the consequences of an accident”. As part of the research, specific structural features of the risk of road accidents were established for Russian cities with different populations; patterns of statistical relationship between the probability of road accidents and the totality of their consequences were established; the risk of death in road accidents for residents of Russian cities was assessed. Based on the research results, a conclusion was made about various mechanisms for the formation of road accidents in different types of cities. The most important result of the study was the establishment of a dialectical contradiction between the probability of an accident and the totality of the consequences of an accident. In general, the research results can be the basis for constructing a multidimensional classification of cities according to the degree of Road Safety Risk and recommendations for reducing the risk of death in road accidents.

The main organizational and technical idea implemented in recent years in Russia in the field of road safety is to reduce the conflict of traffic and pedestrian flows. This is realised through the use of multiphase traffic light cycle modes. The consequence of this is a sharp increase in the duration of the traffic light cycle (up to 180-200 sec) and a decrease in the capacity of the street and road network. However, more surprisingly, it does not lead to an increase in road safety. The article presents the author’s view on the non-obvious effectiveness of such attempts to reduce the conflict of traffic and pedestrian flows and the author’s reflections on the dialectical contradiction between the organizational complexity of traffic light cycles and the behaviour of road users.

Transport systems are complex systems present in modern cities. The sustainability of all other urban systems depends on the sustainable functioning of urban transport. Various processes occur within transport systems. Road traffic is one of them. At the same time, road traffic is a rather complex process to manage, which is explained by the influence of many different internal and external environmental factors. The unpredictable and chaotic behavior of each vehicle in a traffic flow complicates predicting the transport situation and traffic management. This problem gave rise to several unsolved problems, including traffic congestion and road accident rates. The solution to these problems is connected with sustainably managing transport systems in terms of road traffic. However, numerous regularities between elements within the system should be understood in order to implement the management process. Unfortunately, the results of many previous studies often reflect only partial regularities and have limited functionality. Therefore, a new approach to urban traffic management is needed. As opposed to the existing solutions, the authors of this paper propose to implement management based on the regularities of changes in the chaos of the transport system. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to establish the relationship between road traffic chaos and road accident rates. The general methodological basis of this research is the system approach and its methods: analysis and synthesis. The theoretical studies were mostly based on the theories of chaos, dynamic systems, and traffic flows. The experimental studies were based on the theories of experimental design, probability, and mathematical statistics. To achieve this goal, a profound analysis covered studies on the sustainability of transport and dynamic systems, sociodynamics, and traffic. The authors proposed considering the relative entropy of lane occupancy at signal-controlled intersections as a measure for assessing traffic flow chaos and sustainability. Notably, as the main conclusions, the authors established regularities for the influence of entropy on the kinetic energy of traffic flows and injury risk. It also makes sense to emphasize that the initial data for the experiment were collected via real-time processing of video images using neural network technologies. These technologies will further allow for the implementation of traffic management and real-time forecasting of various events. Ultimately, the authors identified changes in injury risk depending on the level of road chaos. According to the authors, the obtained results can be used to improve the sustainability of urban transport systems. The research identified changes in injury risk depending on the level of road chaos, which could have significant implications for urban traffic management strategies.

Transportation process reliability is a competitive advantage in the market of cargo delivery services. Transportation customers are interested in shipping cargoes within agreed timeframes and ensuring their safety. These are the two main parameters of transportation process reliability, compliance with which depends on a number of factors. In particular, changes in the external environment where road transportation companies operate inevitably affect the transportation process stability. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to road transportation reliability and risk mitigation based on the digital twin concept. The variability of business processes is usually the reason for deviations from the transportation terms agreed with the customer. These deviations can be interpreted as failures in delivering cargoes. A prerequisite for ensuring smooth cargo transportation by a road transportation company is the reduction of deviations in the performance of its business processes. The article proposes methods of computer modeling and creating a digital twin of a company reflecting the reference business processes for transportation. As a result, various deviations from the reference digital model that business processes exhibit when there are changes in the external environment can be promptly identified and corrected.

In the course of practical implementation of the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation, relevant specialists realize not only the unreality of achieving its goals within the established time frame, but also the declarative nature of this document and the lack of appropriate scientific and methodological tools, the use of which could help in solving the tasks set. One of the important elements of this tool could be a methodology for quantitative assessment of the risks of road traffic accidents. Another element is the results of assessing the spatio-temporal specificity of risk formation processes. The purpose of the study, some results of which are presented in this article, is to study the dynamics of spatio-temporal features of the formation of risks of death of Russians in road accidents (for the case of large cities). The article presents the methodology and results of assessing the risks of road traffic accidents in Russian cities with a population of Ngor = 501 ... 1000 thousand people. The specificity of the risk of road traffic accidents is considered from the position of assessing the statistical relationship between two particular components of the accident risk – «Risk of participation in an abstract road traffic accident (RTA) P RTA» (Indicator 1) and «Total consequences of an accident (Risk of death in a specific accident Cons RTA» (Indicator 2). The results of the study are characterized by scientific novelty. In particular, it was found that particular characteristics of the accident risk P RTA and Cons RTA can be considered from the position of dialectical opposition. With an increase in one of them, the other decreases, and vice versa. In fact, this is one of the examples of the implementation of the general scientific law of conservation (of matter, energy, information). In this case, the discovered effects can be interpreted from the position of the law of conservation of information. The article also presents assessments of the spatio-temporal specificity of the risks of road traffic accidents. Based on the results of the studies, a conclusion was made about the need to use fundamentally different approaches in road safety technologies in various cities of the country, taking into account the specificity of the accident risk. Further research in the area of studying the specifics of accident risks can be aimed both at expanding the number of objects of study (i.e. devoted to the study of accident risks in Russian cities with a smaller or larger population), and at studying the relationship between accident risks and the most important factors of a large complex system «Person – Car – Road – Environment» (CCRE).

The study examines the factors and causes of changes in the structural characteristics of road accidents on selected major streets of Tyumen from 2015 to 2022. The authors compared road accident data collected in 2015 and in 2022 for three main thoroughfare of the city: Respubliki street, 50 Let VLKSM – Zapolnaya – Chernyshevskogo street, Fedyuninskogo – Bypass Tyumen road – Zakaluzhskaya street. Structural characteristics of accident risks have been identified. The study found that the structure of accident risks for streets located in the city center, middle, and peripheral areas has undergone a significant change over the past 8 years. 1. On the central arterial Respubliki street, a decrease in the annual number of accidents by 19.1 % and a decrease in the annual number of injured in accidents by 20.0 % was observed. 2. On the section of 50 Let VLKSM – Zapolnaya – Chernyshevskogo – Polevaya street, there was an increase in the annual number of accidents by 34.5 % and an increase in the annual number of injured in accidents by 23.4 %. 3. On the section of Fedyuninskogo – Bypass Tyumen Road – Zakaluzhskaya Street, a 2-3-fold increase in road accident indicators was recorded: the annual number of accidents increased by 217.6 %, the annual number of injured in accidents by 136.7 %. In the city center, with an overall reduction in accident risks, the quantitative and qualitative ratios between accidents at intersections and on road segments have changed. The results of this study can serve as a basis for developing practical solutions to improve road safety.