Ioannis Arampatzidis

Achieving climate neutrality in Europe is a critical goal, yet there is no model-based assessment detailing the key factors and assumptions of each Member State’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). To fill that gap, the plans of 35 European countries (33 NECPs and the equivalent national plans of Norway and Switzerland) were reviewed, and each was simulated in a common energy emissions modeling framework, creating a consolidated European National Commitments (NC) scenario that assumes full implementation of the plans. The LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model developed for this purpose covers energy consumption and production in the residential, industrial, agricultural, transport (terrestrial, maritime, aviation), and services sectors. Greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in CO₂ equivalents for each fuel type and end use. Under the NC scenario, energy-related GHG emissions fall by about 65% between 2025 and 2050, with reductions in all sectors, driven by energy efficiency gains and cleaner fuel mixes. Yet the plans are not mutually consistent: summed over all countries, they imply net imports of 115 TWh of electricity and 79 TWh of green hydrogen in 2050 that no European plan foresees supplying. However, achieving these reductions depends on fully implementing 35 plans, which vary substantially in their timelines, ambition levels, data granularity, and fuel trade assumptions. The paper discusses these inconsistencies and proposes policy recommendations tailored by sector, country, and policy framework to support a holistic and equitable transition.

This study provides a novel perspective on the role of US oil production in the global oil market and the US economy. It employs a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression to identify distinct demand and supply oil market shocks. Although several studies have already used models that distinguish explicitly between US and non-US oil production, the present study does so by adopting a more flexible identification scheme as well as by allowing for time variation. In addition, a rolling-sample estimation approach is employed to investigate oil market shocks in a dynamic framework. The study finds considerable time variation in the effects of oil market shocks on the US economy. In particular, it identifies a sharp increase in the price elasticity of US oil supply after the shale oil revolution. This increased price responsiveness of US oil production is partly responsible for the resilience of the US economy to global oil market shocks in recent years. This conclusion remains robust regardless of whether the global oil market shocks originate from the demand or supply side.