Zhichao Zhang

Assessing the ecosystem service value (ESV) of grasslands is crucial for sustainable resource management and environmental conservation. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in grassland ecosystem services in the Bosten Lake Basin using long-term land use data (2000–2022). Employing the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we develop three future scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and economic priority—to predict grassland utilization trends. The findings reveal a continuous decline in grassland area and ecosystem service values, driven by climate change and human activities. Compared with 2022, all three scenarios indicate further degradation, but ecological protection measures significantly mitigate ESV loss. This study provides scientific insights for sustainable land management and policy-making, contributing to ecological restoration strategies under climate change impacts. The findings reveal the following: (1) Over the 22-year period, the grassland area in the Bosten Lake Basin has experienced an overall decline. Notably, the area of plain desert steppe grassland expanded from 626,179.41 ha to 1,223,506.62 ha, whereas plain meadow grassland reduced from 556,784.64 ha to 118,948.23 ha. (2) The total ecosystem service value of grasslands in the basin exhibited a marginally insignificant decrease, amounting to a reduction of 5.73422 billion CNY. The values for mountain desert, mountain desert steppe, mountain typical steppe, and mountain meadow grasslands were relatively low and showed minimal change. (3) In comparison to 2022, the projected areas of grassland under the three scenarios for 2000 show a substantial reduction, particularly in plain desert and hilly desert grasslands. The ecosystem service values across all scenarios are expected to decline in tandem with varying degrees of grassland degradation. This research underscores the impact of global warming and human activities on the shrinking grassland area and the diminishing ecosystem service values in the Bosten Lake Basin. The current state of grassland resources in the study area is under threat, highlighting the urgent need for strategic planning and conservation efforts to ensure sustainable development and ecological integrity.

The ecological environment in the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang is very sensitive and fragile, and identifying the ecological asset retention within the mountainous areas is a top priority at the current stage in the context of comprehensive environmental management in arid zones. This study examines the conversion and ecosystem service values between different land types within the mountainous areas based on a time series of land-use data from 1990 to 2020, and the results show that: (1) The value of ecosystem services on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains shows an overall increasing trend. It increased from CNY 308.645 billion in 1990 to CNY 326.550 billion in 2020. Among them, the value of ecosystem services increased significantly between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of CNY 39.857 billion. Regulatory services accounted for more than 66% of the value of each ecosystem service. (2) Land use on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains has changed significantly since 1990. The areas of cropland, forest land, grassland, watershed, and construction land have all shown an upward trend, with the greatest increase in construction land. The area of unutilized land, on the other hand, has slightly decreased. (3) The value of ecosystem services within the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains was spatially high in the south, low in the north, and higher in the west than in the east. The study also found a significant positive spatial correlation between ecosystem service values. In the spatial distribution, the increasing areas were mainly distributed in the southeast, and the decreasing areas were in the north. Changes in land types are expected to include an increase in the area of grassland and woodland, a decrease in unutilized land and cropland, and an overall improvement in the ecological environment of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains in the next decade. This study also provides lessons and references for sustainable development and ecological protection in ecologically fragile regions.

In the context of climate change and the intensification of population activities, differences in regional water resources are the main drivers leading to these resources’ unbalanced development. This problem can be addressed by exploring spatial differences and spatio-temporal patterns. Based on the spatio-temporal trends of grain production, social economy, population, and water resources in the Tarim River Basin from 2005 to 2020, this paper uses the barycenter model coupling situation model to analyze the evolutionary trend of the barycenter, spatial overlap and spatio-temporal coupling degree for each index. The results show the following: (1) The spatio-temporal distribution of grain production was larger in the east than in the west. Grain production increased by 18.10% across the basin, and the migration rate of the grain center of gravity (CG) was 16.61 km/a. (2) The spatio-temporal distribution of the economy was greater in the south than in the north, with a cumulative migration of 323.10 km to the southwest. During the study period, the population remained concentrated in the western portion of the basin, increasing 25.18% compared to the population prior to 2005. The spatial variation range of total water resources was small, showing a trend of slow increase from west to east. (3) The overlap between GDP and population was enhanced, with the coupling showing a slow rising trend. The overlap of water resources and grain space also increased and the consistency index was high. From 2011 to 2020, the average consistency index was 0.594 and the coupling degree of the two factors was enhanced. By combining grain production, economy, population, and water resources with the center of gravity model, this paper reveals the spatial differences of relevant factors in the Tarim River Basin, providing an important reference value for regional socio-economic development and the rational allocation of water resources.

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is situated in the hinterland of northwest China, which is an extremely arid and fragile ecological zone. In recent years, the region’s ecological civilization construction has been facing huge challenges that are exacerbated by climate change and human activities. In order to verify the current ecological status of TRB, this paper explores the spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem service value (ESV) and the impact mechanism based on LUCC data from 2000 to 2020, using the adjusted unit area value equivalent method, the elasticity index method and the geo-probe analysis method. The results show that: (1) the ESV of the TRB has fluctuated since 2000, increasing by CNY 14.02 billion, especially in the Hotan River region. Among the individual ecosystem services, the increase in regulatory services is the largest, rising to CNY 8.842 billion. The growth of ESV mostly occurred in the mountains and oases. (2) The rise in ESV is mainly due to the conversion of barren land to water and grassland; ESV loss is mainly affected by the conversion of water to cropland and barren land and grassland to cropland and barren land. (3) Human activity impact or intensity (HAI) is the key driving factor for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV, followed by elevation (DEM). In the interaction analysis, HAI∩DEM interaction is the primary reason for ESV’s spatial differentiation. The study’s findings show that the combined effects of human activities, DEM, and hydrothermal conditions underlie the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV in the TRB. This conclusion provides a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction planning.