Cheng Zhong

Integrating growing wind and solar generation while maintaining supply adequacy is a key challenge for sustainable power systems. However, the effects of different thermal retrofit pathways on renewable curtailment and modeled unserved energy remain unclear as renewable capacity expands. This study compares deep peak-shaving, fast-ramping, and combined retrofits using a PyPSA baseline and an 8760-h system dynamics simulation covering 31 Chinese provincial nodes. Doubling renewable capacity increases actual wind and solar generation by 51.4%, while the utilization rate falls from 91.4% to 69.2%. At baseline renewable capacity, the deep peak-shaving scenario S1 reduces annual curtailment by 25.0 TWh but produces 45.49 GWh of modeled unserved energy. S1 also reduces curtailment at renewable capacity multipliers of 1.50 and 2.00, whereas the fast-ramping scenario S2 has little effect on annual curtailment. At equal 50% retrofit coverage, the combined scenario S3 preserves S1’s curtailment benefit while nearly eliminating its supply shortfall. The expanded combined scenario S4, with 80% coverage, further reduces curtailment to 234.9 TWh at baseline renewable capacity. Considering curtailment and modeled unserved energy jointly, the combined retrofit provides the most favorable outcome among the equal-coverage pathways for supporting renewable integration while maintaining supply adequacy.

In order to accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, China set the provincial weight of responsibility for renewable energy power consumption and established a renewable energy power absorption guarantee mechanism in 2019. As a market incentive policy, it has enduring effect on the low-carbon transformation of the power industry. Firstly, the operation mechanism of the renewable energy consumption guarantee mechanism is analyzed. The general framework, core elements and supporting measures are clarified. Secondly, a stock-flow diagram is constructed based on the system dynamics method. It contains the green electricity market sub-module, the green-certificate market sub-module and the excess power absorption market sub-module. Finally, multiple scenarios are set up to simulate the impact of the green-certificate market and excess power absorption market improvements on the installed capacity and tariff of China’s green power market. The renewable energy guarantee mechanism is an effective means to promote the consumption of green electricity in China. In addition, in the short term the cost of electricity for users has increased, but in the long term the cost of electricity shows a fluctuating downward trend. This study provides theoretical references for the formulation of clean and low-carbon policy objectives in the power industry and the optimization of market mechanisms.

The national carbon emission trading mechanism is an important policy tool for the Chinese government to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using the market mechanism. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market is the focus of energy conservation and consumption reduction in China. Problems have already existed in the synergic development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market and carbon trading market. In this article, the development status of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market is analyzed and the coupling mechanism between the carbon market and power market is combed out to build a synergism model of the carbon market and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market based on the system dynamics. From the research results, firstly, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market comes with a high energy consumption intensity and a high proportion of carbon emissions. The coupling of carbon market and power market forces the power industry to reduce carbon emissions through the effective transmission of carbon costs to power prices. Secondly, carbon price shows an upward trend in the context of the current policy scenario, which can give play to the role of price signal in the future. The revenue of thermal power plants, which are the carbon emission right sellers, with new technologies, has increased significantly, while the revenue of carbon emission right buyers, which are the manufacturers of undeveloped units, has increased less. Finally, the technical progress of thermal power plants, the introduction of auction mechanism, the increase in initial carbon price settings and the direct transmission of carbon costs are all factors that promote the effectiveness of carbon trading policy tools in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market. This study provides theoretical guidance for the synergic development of the “power-carbon” market.