Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek

Vienna is experiencing increasing summer temperatures, highlighting the need to transform towards a heat-adapted urban structure. This has been acknowledged both by the city authorities as well as scientific institutions, the first through implementing new strategies and adapting existing ones, the latter through carrying out modelling studies that highlight the cooling potential of nature-based solutions. Over the past years, the heat stress has intensified, urging local and municipality decision makers to enhance their efforts in cooling the city, resulting in pilot studies such as the Supergrätzl, the extensive distribution of fog showers and enforcing greening measures in strategies. Additionally, the awareness that public space available for transformation relates to street design has increased, thereby urging modelling studies to incorporate the effect of parked cars that are currently occupying these areas. Therefore, within this study we investigate the development of urban planning regulations with respect to higher thermal comfort for citizens due to implementation of nature-based solutions, the current barriers to a strategic implementation and the expected impact of transformed quarters due to the implementation of greening measures when incorporating the microclimatic impact of parked cars. The integration of cars displays that parked cars account for about 0.5°C warming.

The intensification of the climate crisis is making heat an emerging risk for Tallinn, increasing the pressure on the city to adapt to altered climate conditions while accommodating urban growth and planned development. This study therefore assesses how planned urban growth can be combined with necessary nature-based adaptation measures to reduce heat exposure and shape Tallinn’s future city-wide microclimate. Future urban configurations were developed in close collaboration with city representatives and translated into a reference case and three successive scenarios for 2030, 2040, and 2050. %As detailed planning information beyond 2035 is limited, the status-quo simulation was used to identify thermally stressed locations for targeted adaptation measures, including unsealing, street greening, renaturalization, and tree planting. Building retrofitting and enhanced insulation of newly constructed buildings were also represented. The scenarios were simulated with the PALM model system for a hot summer period using identical meteorological forcing derived from WRF simulations. The analysis evaluates maximum and minimum 2 m air temperature, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and rank-based heat hotspots. Results show that heat-adapted urban growth can locally reduce daytime heat exposure through shading and vegetation, but may also introduce warming where thermally moderating surfaces are replaced by sealed and built-up land. The strongest adaptation signal occurs for nighttime minimum temperature, particularly where unsealing and greening are implemented at larger scale and targeted to existing hotspots. City-wide median changes remain modest, while hotspot-specific reductions become evident in the 2040 and 2050 scenarios. By applying city-scale PALM modelling to a northern coastal city where heat-adaptation pathways remain comparatively underexplored, the study demonstrates how modelling can support staged planning strategies that combine urban growth with climate-sensitive design and targeted nature-based adaptation.

Compound and consecutive extreme events are increasingly understood as key contributors to climate risk, as their interactions can intensify impacts beyond those produced by individual hazards alone threatening the long-term sustainability of regional infrastructure. Compound coincident events involve multiple climate drivers or hazards that occur simultaneously or in close temporal proximity, exhibiting overlapping spatial and temporal characteristics. For assessing multi-hazards, information on critical thresholds of the events investigated (extreme precipitation and wind gusts in the presented study) is key, as is the time frame needed to determine the probability of event B after an event A. As this data is location-specific, stakeholder integration provides a potential tool for gathering this information to enable socially robust disaster risk management. The presented study displays a potential interdisciplinary approach to how multi-hazards and their occurrence can be investigated locally. Therefore, stakeholder integration is combined with climate model output and a copula-based analysis of compound coincident and consecutive extreme daily wind and precipitation events for the Salzburg region under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Through stakeholder integration, relevant thresholds and potential time frames were identified. Our findings indicate that the thresholds critical to the considered assets (properties, transport, energy) are well aligned between different stakeholders; however, the time frame of increased vulnerability due to a previous event differs strongly between them. Compared to the baseline scenarios, the ranges within the climate model used for rainfall and wind speed intensity under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are examined, and, for rainfall, have expanded to greater values for both compound coincident and consecutive events, highlighting challenges and future research needs for sustainable adaptation and regional policy.

As Climate services transition from pure data provision to tailored decision support systems, they require a mechanism to translate heterogeneous user needs into functional design. Despite the consensus on user-centeredness, systematic frameworks focusing on usability and uptake remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by developing and refining prototypical Personas through a multi-stage co-creation approach. Based on quantitative survey data [n=171], qualitative interviews [n=20] and four focus group discussions, we identify key traits and selection criteria that categorize users not just by profession, but by their specific decision-making contexts and technical capabilities.,Our results identify five distinct Personas – Spatial Planner (m), Manager for Climate Change Adaptation Model Regions (f), Actuary (f), Environmental Lobbyist (m), Tropical Medicine Specialist (f), Journalist (m) – that facilitate the derivation of specific design principles. Rather than representing every potential user, these Personas synthesize the most critical target groups and their diverse requirements. Our findings reveal that while professional groups differ in their service usage, the primary determinant for design is not a user’s profession, but their specific application context and interpretation needs. We show that different sectors often require similar information products. While some users need easily accessible pre-processed information like ready-to-use maps, factsheets and text descriptions, others require data for custom interpretation and use the provided information to perform specific assessments. This study demonstrates that Personas effectively bridge the gap between scientific complexity and user-centricity, ensuring that climate information is not only scientifically robust but operationally actionable.

Combining modelling and communication strategies for integrated climate mitigation: Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek and Alexandra Millonig explore how to combine modelling and communication strategies for a sustainable future. Regions around the world are challenged in reaching climate-neutrality goals and implementing much-needed adaptation measures, while facing financing constraints and social resistance. To support and facilitate the transition towards a sustainable future, a comprehensive communication toolset and integrated climate mitigation pathways were developed for three different climate impact contexts within the Horizon Europe project KNOWING (heat and health, flooding and infrastructure, soil fertility and agriculture).

At a time when reducing emissions is becoming more urgent, and when climate impacts are intensifying, European regions and cities are grappling with the double challenge of planning climate mitigation and adaptation. Project KNOWING investigated how state-of-the-art scientific methods can be leveraged to assist the design of future pathways that integrate mitigation and adaptation interventions in a rational way. We present here the results of this investigation for the city of Naples, focusing on the emerging climate risks: from compound pluvial and coastal flooding, and from heatwaves. Starting from a process of stakeholder consultation and from the local SECAP plans, we defined a set of desirable mitigation and adaptation interventions. This were then simulated through specific domain models, including models of regional and urban climate, marine waves, compound flooding, health impacts, transport, energy supply and energy demand, behaviour. In addition, a model of system dynamics was implemented, to represent the key local processes that are relevant for climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation. Based on the results of both modelling approaches, we designed a local pathway of integrated mitigation and adaptation, which can serve to inform planning in the near and distant future.

There is high demand for reliable climate information. But which aspects are most crucial for the development of useful and usable climate services, i.e. provision of products and services besides pure data? Which implications can be derived for climate service providers? The project Use.AT targeted these questions to inform the development of the next Austrian climate scenarios within a national, multidisciplinary process called Klimaszenarien.AT. In detail, the projectexamined the providers’ perspectives by looking at other countries with long-standing experiences in providing and evaluating climate services like UK, CH, DE, NL and Austria.focused on the users themselves: Who used the current Austrian climate scenarios ÖKS15? Who could and should use them in the future? What are users’ needs, requirements, and challenges? And which role does ÖKS15 play in climate-sensitive decision making?investigated the vast field of climate communication: Which aspects of effective climate communication and climate service provision can be found in the literature? How do existing products compare considering those criteria? Are they of different relevance for different user groups?Using a mixed-method approach – literature research, surveys, interviews and focus groups –new insights on the needs and rationales of user groups concerning climate information and derived services were discovered. These now inform the development of a communication strategy for Klimaszenarien.AT, shaping the products and formats that are tailored to three different user levels: (i) `explorers’ that mostly need interpretation in the form of fact sheets, figures and content ready for social media, (ii) `practitioners´ that need tools and interfaces suitable for their everyday use to make use of the new localised climate scenarios, and (iii) `specialists´ that need the raw data themselves, accompanied by tutorials and uncertainty information. Therefore, the communication strategy aims to tailor the products to the relevant user groups needs, guide their navigation towards those products and services they really need and simplify access to data, web- and print services. The presentation will focus on the corner stones of the communications strategy, as well as recommendations for (inter)national climate service providers resulting from the results and experiences of the Use.AT project.

Extreme heat waves and high temperatures have tremendous impacts on human health and consequently the health system. Over the past years, the increasing summer heat has brought both, the population and the healthcare organisations to their limits. As care and emergency organizations are already experiencing challenging conditions during holiday season due to limited personnel resources, this situation is intensified due to rising heat that causes increased care needs and emergency operations. From a patient’s perspective, vulnerable groups, such as children, the elderly, and people with chronic and mental illnesses, are particularly affected. Symptoms can range from heat stress and cardiovascular problems to sudden death. While this places a particular burden on individual people, it also poses major challenges for health and care systems.The research projects HeatProtect1and PARAHSOHL2, aim at supporting health care organisations through identifying the most promising adaptation measures and possible digital tools. Therefore, sector specific challenges of the health system in Austria caused by extreme heat are addressed. Since heat days and tropical nights became more severe in recent decades and are continuously increasing, heat is perceived as emerging climate risk in Austria.Within the projects, meteorological, climatological and health expertise is combined through the participating organisations. Further, data from all areas are combined and assessed applying qualitative and quantitative methods to support the health sector in dealing with future heat events. Health-related heat indicators are used to quantify impacts under future global warming levels, while a regression model is applied to estimate the associated effects on hospitalizations.To identify the risks and vulnerabilities associated with heat as hazard for individual target groups, the concept of climate impact chains is used. This approach helps to identify key points where action can reduce the vulnerability of the organisations and therefore the risk of extreme heat and improve resilience in the health system. Through an interdisciplinary research approach, the projects enable bridging gaps between the complexity of climate science and the demanding day-to-day challenges of the health system. 1https://projekte.ffg.at/projekt/48475102 https://projekte.ffg.at/projekt/5125189

Heat conditions pose a substantial threat to population health, with certain groups being particularly vulnerable. People with mental health disorders may be especially at risk due to structural and social stressors (e.g., living environment, limited access to cooling), physiological factors (e.g., medication effects on thermoregulation), and psychological factors (e.g., reduced self-care). This study is part of the Austrian climate–health project Parahsohl, in which we develop a data-driven workflow to assess health-relevant heat indicators, focusing on individuals with mental health disorders in the federal state of Tyrol. The objective is to develop regression models linking hospitalizations to weather conditions while accounting for relevant confounders, enabling interpretation in an impact-based weather-warning context and providing a basis for subsequent climate risk assessments.The analytical workflow comprises three stages: (i) data preparation, (ii) model development, and (iii) model evaluation. Daily hospital admissions (n = 83,673) between May and September from 2007–2023 were used as the response variable for the nine administrative districts of Tyrol, focusing on mental and behavioural disorders (ICD-10 diagnosis codes: F00–F99). Weather predictors were derived from high-resolution (1×1 km) gridded observation data (SPARTACUS) for the same time period and aggregated using a population-weighted approach. Thus, we could account for differences in exposure between densely and sparsely populated areas. Lag variables over multiple temporal windows were generated for key meteorological metrics to capture delayed health effects. Hospitalization counts were modelled using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) with a negative binomial distribution. Weather variables were included as fixed effects, while day-of-week, year, and district were treated as random effects. Population offsets allowed incidence-based interpretation. Model performance was evaluated using standard statistical criteria for fit and predictive accuracy, and predictive skill was further assessed through temporal cross-validation across years and months. Initial results indicate that higher daily mean temperatures are significantly associated with increased hospitalization counts, with lagged temperature effects further enhancing model performance. Partial-effect plots and relative risk estimates provide interpretable quantitative measures of heat-related impacts on mental health outcomes. For instance, the hottest day in the study period was associated with an estimated increase in hospitalization risk exceeding 10% compared with average summer conditions.As a next step, the analysis will be extended to a more detailed examination of diagnostic subgroups to better identify particularly vulnerable populations. These results will be presented at EGU2026. This study provides a quantitative assessment of heat-related impacts on mental health hospitalizations and contributes to the development of evidence-based indicators applicable for short-term applications (e.g., user specific impact-based weather warnings) as well as long-term climate risk assessments.

Combining Climate Digital Twin (DT) and Extremes DT offers significant benefits for renewable energy planning. Climate DT provides long-term simulations, while Extremes DT focuses on detecting high-impact events. Although Climate DT includes wind energy aspects, it lacks emphasis on extreme events. Integrating both approaches can address uncertainties in renewable energy supply under current and future climate conditions, as PV and wind are highly sensitive to short-term changes. Within the presented study we aim to evaluate the added value of downscaling Climate DT data from ~5 km to hectometric resolution (400–800 m) to better represent local conditions. Further, we analyse the usability of Climate DT output for the renewable energy sector, either directly or as stated above, as input for setting up dynamical climate simulations at the hecto-scale by using regional climate simulation models WRF and ICON. We therefore have the following objectives: (i) to assess the skill of the Global Climate DT scenarios with respect to representativeness of extreme (meteorological) events, synoptic patterns, and their impact on renewables; (ii) estimate the added value of highly resolved climate scenarios dynamically downscaled to hectometric spatial resolution (and higher vertical resolution) with respect to selected renewables extreme events (negatively affecting either the supply or the infrastructure itself).For assessing the added value of hecto-scale simulations, on the one hand, regional climate simulations using the WRF and ICON model were conducted – initiated by ERA5 data – for 5 km, 1.6 km, 800 m and 400 m. These simulations display that higher regional climate model resolution from 5 km down to 1.6 km, to 400 m increases the model skill to represent local wind patterns.On the other hand, to evaluate the skill of Climate DT versus hecto-scale simulations initialized by Climate DT, a model year representative of a real year is selected and simulated using ICON and WRF. Consequently, the meteorological parameters (e.g. wind speed, radiation, temperature) as well as the post-processed energy production (e.g. mean annual and mean monthly values) data are validated.