Yu Shan

Based on the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) dependence plots, this study identified the fire-risk thresholds of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Dead Fuel Index (DFI), and analyzed their interaction using SHAP interaction values. The results showed that the suitable NDVI range was 0.1555–0.1943, and values outside this range were unfavorable. DFI ≥ 15.4008 was identified as a critical threshold, above which the probability of fire occurrence increased significantly, making it the dominant condition for fire occurrence. The interaction analysis showed that NDVI mainly exerted a positive regulatory effect on DFI, but the overall interaction strength was relatively weak. Comparison of threshold effectiveness showed that the single DFI threshold achieved the highest recall, reaching 98.57%, and was suitable for large-scale early warning. The combined threshold (0.1555 ≤ NDVI ≤ 0.1943 and DFI ≥ 15.4008) achieved the highest precision of 63.33%, but its recall was only 47.78%, indicating a relatively high missed-fire risk. Independent validation using 2022 samples showed that the high-risk area defined by DFI ≥ 15.4008 covered 96.49% of fire points, with a precision of 63.91%, an F1 score of 76.90%, and an accuracy of 71.00%. Overall, the single DFI threshold has good temporal transferability and can serve as a fire-risk monitoring indicator.

Frequent grassland fires on the Mongolian Plateau endanger the regional environment, human safety, and property, creating a demand for near-real-time active-fire detection with high spatiotemporal resolution. While remote sensing serves as the primary detection method, current fire products struggle to balance high temporal and spatial resolutions for immediate monitoring. Furthermore, although deep learning models may sometimes outperform traditional threshold-based algorithms in generalization, their heavy reliance on extensive, manually annotated datasets severely restricts their application in small-sample, data-scarce scenarios. To address the dual challenges of near-real-time detection and limited sample availability, this study proposes FIRE-BYOL, an active-fire detection framework integrating BYOL self-supervised learning with supervised fine-tuning. Leveraging high-frequency multispectral AHI data from Himawari-8/9 as the primary input, the framework effectively trains on a small sample of high-confidence labels generated from VIIRS fire products. Robust feature extraction is achieved through self-supervised pre-training on large volumes of unlabeled data to mitigate label dependency, followed by supervised fine-tuning for precise active-fire classification. Our experimental results demonstrate that FIRE-BYOL excels under small-sample conditions, achieving F1 scores of 0.8746 during the day and 0.9764 at night. Outperforming Random Forest, XGBoost, FireCNN, and the WLF product, the model exhibits exceptional near-real-time monitoring capabilities for early-stage and entire fire events. By delivering accurate detection at a 10 min temporal and 2 km spatial resolution, FIRE-BYOL offers a highly effective, data-efficient technical solution for high-frequency regional fire monitoring on the Mongolian Plateau and similar environments.

Accurate extraction of crop planting structures is important for crop area and yield estimation, but complex and fragmented cropping patterns with overlapping phenology in the Hetao Irrigation District hinder reliable crop discrimination. This study proposes a hierarchical workflow that integrates vegetation masking with multi-source feature optimization for crop mapping. First, dual-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery (May and August) is used to generate a vegetation region-of-interest(ROI) mask via Otsu thresholding applied to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), combined with pixel-wise maximum-value fusion to reduce phenology-driven omissions and background interference. Second, within the vegetation mask, Sentinel-2 spectral, vegetation-index, and texture features are combined with Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter and SAR texture features to construct a multi-source feature set. Random Forest(RF) feature-importance ranking is used to select an effective feature subset, and four classifiers (RF, support vector machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and convolutional neural network (CNN)) are compared under the same training/validation setting. The vegetation extraction achieves an overall accuracy of 91% (Kappa = 0.80). Using Sentinel-2 features only, the optimized subset with CNN attains the best performance (overall accuracy = 95%, Kappa = 0.93). Adding Sentinel-1 SAR texture features provides an additional improvement (overall accuracy = 96%, Kappa = 0.94), particularly for classes prone to confusion in fragmented plots. Area proportions derived from the final map are consistent with statistical yearbook data (percentage errors: maize 3.45%, sunflower 2.66%, wheat 0.11%, tomato 0.92%) under the study conditions. This workflow supports practical crop-structure monitoring in complex irrigation districts.

Soil salinity mapping in heterogeneous irrigation districts faces a dual challenge: the high dimensionality of hyperspectral data leads to redundancy, while the scarcity of ground-truth samples restricts the generalization of data-driven models. Traditional regression methods often struggle to capture non-linear spectral responses under such “small-sample” conditions. To address these limitations, this study proposes a semi-supervised retrieval framework coupling Optimal Band Combination Analysis (OBCA) with a Spectral Wasserstein GAN with Gradient Penalty (S-WGAN-GP). We constructed a robust feature set via cross-scenario evaluation and developed a rigorous “Uncertainty-Aware Filtering” protocol to screen synthetic samples generated by a teacher mechanism. The OBCA screening revealed that salinity-sensitive features are robustly clustered in the Green (550–570 nm) and Near-Infrared (NIR, 880–950 nm) regions, with NIR bands demonstrating superior stability across different sites. The proposed S-WGAN-GP successfully densified the feature manifold by generating 1186 high-fidelity synthetic samples. By incorporating these augmented data, the inversion accuracy was substantially improved: the R² of the optimal SVR model increased from 0.36 (baseline) to 0.60 (+66.7%), and the RMSE decreased from 7.06 to 5.57 dSm⁻¹. This study confirms that physically constrained generative augmentation, when combined with rigorous quality control, effectively bridges the distribution gap in limited datasets. The proposed framework offers a transferable and accurate solution for fine-scale soil salinity monitoring in data-scarce arid regions.

Against the backdrop of global climate change and carbon neutrality goals, the transportation sector has become a focal point in urban carbon emission research. This study develops a Spatiotemporal Geographically Weighted Regression (SGTWR) model that integrates spatial, temporal, and attribute similarity dimensions to identify the main driving factors of urban transportation carbon emissions (TCE) across 287 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2019. The model incorporates climatic and geographical variables to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of emission patterns. The results indicate that population density, private vehicle ownership, and heating degree days have positive effects on TCE, while terrain elevation exhibits a mitigating effect. The SGTWR model demonstrates superior explanatory power and accuracy (adjusted R² = 0.900) compared with traditional models, revealing significant spatial patterns and temporal trends in emission drivers. Based on coefficient clustering, six types of cities are identified, highlighting regional disparities in emission mechanisms. These findings provide methodological and theoretical support for formulating differentiated low-carbon transportation policies tailored to regional geographic and socio-economic contexts.

The frequent occurrence of sandstorms on the Mongolian Plateau has become a critical factor influencing the stability of regional ecosystems and social activities. In this study, a deep learning framework was developed for predicting sandstorm paths on the Mongolian Plateau. A spatio-temporal feature dataset was established using remote sensing imagery and meteorological observations. Spatial features were extracted through a convolutional neural network (CNN), while the temporal evolution of sandstorms was modeled using a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network. A random forest algorithm was employed to assess the relative importance of meteorological and geographical factors. The results indicate that the proposed CNN-BiLSTM model achieved strong performance at prediction intervals of 1, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h, with overall accuracy, F1-score, and AUC all exceeding 0.80. The 24 h prediction yielded the best results, with evaluation metrics of 0.861, 0.878, and 0.898, respectively. Compared with the individual CNN and BiLSTM models, the CNN-BiLSTM model demonstrated superior performance. The findings suggest that the model provides high predictive accuracy and stability across different time steps, thereby offering strong support for dust storm path prediction on the Mongolian Plateau and contributing to the reduction of disaster-related risks and losses.

Frequent wildfires in the eastern grasslands of Mongolia pose significant threats to the ecological environment and pastoral livelihoods, creating an urgent need for high-temporal-resolution and high-precision fire prediction. To address this, this study established a daily-scale grassland fire risk assessment framework integrating multi-source remote sensing data to enhance predictive capabilities in eastern Mongolia. Utilizing fire point data from eastern Mongolia (2012–2022), we fused multiple feature variables and developed and optimized three models: random forest (RF), XGBoost, and deep neural network (DNN). Model performance was enhanced using Bayesian hyperparameter optimization via Optuna. Results indicate that the Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model achieved the best generalization performance, with an overall accuracy of 92.3%. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpretability analysis revealed that daily-scale meteorological factors—daily average relative humidity, daily average wind speed, daily maximum temperature—and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were consistently among the top four contributing variables across all three models, identifying them as key drivers of fire occurrence. Spatiotemporal validation using historical fire data from 2023 demonstrated that fire points recorded on 8 April and 1 May 2023 fell within areas predicted to have “extremely high” fire risk probability on those respective days. Moreover, points A (117.36° E, 46.70° N) and B (116.34° E, 49.57° N) exhibited the highest number of days classified as “high” or “extremely high” risk during the April/May and September/October periods, consistent with actual fire occurrences. In summary, the integration of multi-source data fusion and Bayesian-optimized machine learning has enabled the first high-precision daily-scale wildfire risk prediction for the eastern Mongolian grasslands, thus providing a scientific foundation and decision-making support for wildfire prevention and control in the region.

Grassland fires are one of the main disasters in the temperate grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, posing a serious threat to the lives and property of residents. The occurrence of grassland fires is affected by a variety of factors, including the biomass and humidity of fuels, the air temperature and humidity, the precipitation and evaporation, snow cover, wind, the elevation and topographic relief, and human activities. In this paper, MCD12Q1, MCD64A1, ERA5, and ETOPO 2022 remote sensing data products and other products were used to obtain the relevant data of these factors to predict the occurrence of grassland fires. In order to achieve a better prediction, this paper proposes a generalized geographically weighted boosted regression (GGWBR) method that combines spatial heterogeneity and complex nonlinear relationships, and further attempts the generalized spatiotemporally weighted boosting regression (GSTWBR) method that reflects spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The models were trained with the data of grassland fires from 2019 to 2022 in the Mongolian Plateau to predict the occurrence of grassland fires in 2023. The results showed that the accuracy of GGWBR was 0.8320, which was higher than generalized boosted regression models’ (GBM) 0.7690. Its sensitivity was 0.7754, which is higher than random forests’ (RF) 0.5662 and GBM’s 0.6927. The accuracy of GSTWBR was 0.8854, which was higher than that of RF, GBM and GGWBR. Its sensitivity was 0.7459, which is higher than that of RF and GBM. This study provides a new technical approach and theoretical support for the disaster prevention and mitigation of grassland fires in the Mongolian Plateau.

Aboveground carbon stocks (AGCs) in forests play an important role in understanding carbon cycle processes. The global forestry sector has been working to find fast and accurate methods to estimate forest AGCs and implement dynamic monitoring. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of backpack LiDAR and UAV multispectral imagery on AGC estimation for two tree species (Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla) and to emphasize the accuracy of the models used. We estimated the AGC of Larix gmelinii and B. platyphylla forests using multivariate stepwise linear regression and random forest regression models using backpack LiDAR data and multi-source remote sensing data, respectively, and compared them with measured data. This study revealed that (1) the diameter at breast height (DBH) extracted from backpack LiDAR and vegetation indices (RVI and GNDVI) extracted from UAV multispectral imagery proved to be extremely effective in modeling for estimating AGCs, significantly improving the accuracy of the model. (2) Random forest regression models estimated AGCs with higher precision (Xing’an larch R² = 0.95, RMSE = 3.99; white birch R² = 0.96, RMSE = 3.45) than multiple linear regression models (Xing’an larch R² = 0.92, RMSE = 6.15; white birch R² = 0.96, RMSE = 3.57). (3) After combining backpack LiDAR and UAV multispectral data, the estimation accuracy of AGCs for both tree species (Xing’an larch R² = 0.95, white birch R² = 0.96) improved by 2% compared to using backpack LiDAR alone (Xing’an larch R² = 0.93, white birch R² = 0.94).