Tongchang Zhang

The impending challenge posed by escalating heatwave events due to projected global warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C underscores the critical need for a comprehensive understanding of their impact on human health and socio-economic realms. This study delves into the anticipated implications of elevated global temperatures, specifically the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 pathways, on population and GDP exposure to heatwaves in China. We also evaluated the aggregated impacts of climate, population, and GDP and their interactions on future socio-economic exposure across China. We leveraged data sourced from the climatic output of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for heatwave analysis and integrated population and GDP projections under divergent Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), including SSP2-4.5 (low emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emission). Results indicate a drastic surge in the number of heatwave days under both warming scenarios, particularly in regions like Xinjiang (XJ), North China (NC), and South China (SC) subregions, with a notable disparity in the elevation of heatwave days among different levels. There is an alarming surge in population exposure, escalating approximately 7.94–8.70 times under the 1.5 °C warming scenario and markedly increasing by 14.48–14.75 times by the 2100s relative to the baseline (1985–2014) under the more extreme 2.0 °C warming level. Likewise, the study unveils a substantial elevation in GDP exposure, ranging from 40.65 to 47.21 times under the 1.5 °C warming level and surging dramatically by 110.85–113.99 times under the 2.0 °C warming level. Further analyses disclose that the climate effect predominantly influences changes in population exposure, constituting 72.55–79.10% of the total change. Meanwhile, the interaction effect notably shapes GDP exposure alterations, contributing 77.70–85.99% to the total change. The comprehensive investigation into alterations in population and GDP exposure under varying warming scenarios, coupled with the quantification of each contributing factor, holds paramount importance in mitigating the detrimental repercussions of heatwaves on both human life and socio-economic landscapes.

In the context of global warming, the general increase in temperature has led to an increase in heatwave events, as well as a dramatic intensification of economic losses and social risks. This study employs the latest intensity–area–duration (IAD) framework that takes into account the temporal continuity and spatial dynamics of extreme events to identify regional heatwave events, and extracts key parameters of heatwave events to study the associated changes in frequency, intensity, influence area, and duration in seven geographic subregions of China in the 1979–2018 period. Heatwaves of all durations increased in frequency and intensity during the research period, with shorter heatwaves increasing in frequency and intensity at a faster rate than longer heatwaves. Among the seven geographic subregions, Xinjiang (XJ) and Southern China (SC) are the regions with the most frequent heatwave occurrence, while the Southwest (SW) and SC have the highest increase in heatwave frequency. In terms of regional distributions, XJ has the strongest heatwave event intensity and the largest affected area, while SC has the longest duration. However, in terms of spatial trends, SC, XJ, and the SW have the highest rates of intensity growth, influence area, and duration, respectively. In addition, heatwaves with extended durations and vast influence areas are more likely to occur in SC, and their frequency is on the rise. During the study period, the intensity, influence area, and length of heatwave occurrences in China exhibited an upward tendency, and it was shown that the longer the duration, the greater the intensity and the broader the influence area. In addition, the evolutionary characteristics of heatwave events with the longest duration indicate a certain consistency in their intensity and influence. These findings can contribute to the development of strategies to prepare for and mitigate the adverse effects of heatwave occurrences.