Yanqiang Jiang

Existing runway incursion risk approaches can estimate risk under specified conditions but have limited ability to represent how runway protection constraints weaken across operational stages. This study develops an integrated System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA)–Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework to examine how safety-constraint degradation propagates across predefined operational stages toward runway incursion risk. A Dynamic Causal Translation Logic (DCTL) provides principle-guided organization of STPA-derived artifacts into a traceable single-slice Bayesian Network (BN), which is subsequently extended across semantic stages through selected inter-slice transitions and sequential evidence updating. The model was parameterized using 66 manually coded runway incursion-related reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). Intra-slice conditional probability tables (CPTs) were estimated and calibrated from these reports, while transition CPTs used expert-informed first-order Markov assumptions. The 2023 runway incursion event at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) was used as a single case-informed demonstration of staged inference and does not constitute independent or cross-case validation. Posterior updating indicated weakened unobserved monitoring and verification constraints, higher unsafe control action likelihood, and sustained tendencies toward runway occupancy conflict and Category B severity. Scenario-based analysis showed that alternative safety-constraint states produced distinct local changes in downstream hazard and Category B posterior probabilities under their respective stage-specific conditioning settings. The framework supports tracing safety-constraint degradation and stage-specific runway safety management.

In mountainous wildfire response, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) emergency services depend on rapidly deployable and spatially reliable vertiports. However, existing site-selection methods insufficiently support continuous UAV operations in topographically complex terrain. This study develops a geographic information system (GIS)-based framework integrating Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and k-medoids clustering to shift UAV vertiport planning from individual site suitability ranking to networked deployment. The framework organizes feasible vertiport candidates into sector-based support staging nodes for coordinated multi-node wildfire response. Applied to the Xichang wildfire, the selected vertiport candidates reduced the mean first-arrival time by up to 71.4% compared with existing fire stations. Under differentiated reload-time assumptions, the staging node support mode further reduced the mean sortie cycle time by up to 56.85% and increased the mean delivery capacity from 17 to 42 fire-extinguishing bombs per UAV per hour. These results indicate that combining vertiport suitability evaluation with staging node-based logistical coordination improves the spatial organization and operational efficiency of UAV-enabled wildfire suppression. The framework offers decision support for networked UAV vertiport and staging node deployment in mountainous wildfire response.

Runway incursions remain a major threat to airport surface safety, and effective prevention depends on the accurate identification of causal risk factors and their interaction mechanisms. However, existing studies have mainly focused on isolated risk factors or static causal relationships, offering limited insight into the hierarchical structure and dynamic propagation of runway incursion risk in complex operational environments. To address this gap, this study proposes a quantitative framework for runway incursion risk analysis by integrating grounded theory and complex network theory. Published runway incursion cases in the Chinese civil aviation system from 2022 to 2025 were systematically analyzed through open coding, axial coding, and selective coding, resulting in a hierarchical indicator system comprising five main categories, twelve subcategories, and 112 risk indicators. Based on this system, a runway incursion causal network was constructed to characterize the causal interdependencies among risk factors. Node importance was evaluated using a TOPSIS-based multi-criteria method integrating multiple network metrics, and a load-distribution-based propagation mechanism was introduced to quantify the risk propagation probability and risk propagation intensity of each node. The results indicate that insufficient night lighting (N99), taxi-route memory errors (N14), ambiguous controller instructions (N1), and excessive controller workload (N10) exhibit relatively high risk propagation probability and risk propagation intensity, indicating their critical roles in the evolution and cascading propagation of runway incursion risk. These findings demonstrate that the proposed framework can effectively capture both the structural importance and propagation characteristics of causal risk factors. Therefore, this study provides quantitative support for understanding runway incursion risk evolution and for developing targeted prevention strategies and post-incident response measures to improve runway safety management.

The escalating complexity of airport surface operations challenges traditional risk quantification methods. Conventional linear models often fail to capture the non-linear interactions within sociotechnical systems. While hybrid System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Bayesian Network (BN) models provide an alternative, existing integrations are frequently constrained by ad hoc structural translations and rare-event data sparsity. To address these methodological limitations, this study proposes an enhanced STPA-BN framework. A formalized mapping mechanism (M1–M4) translates qualitative STPA scenarios into a BN topology to quantify non-linear causal dependencies across environmental precursors, operator cognitive states, unsafe control actions, and systemic hazards. Parameterization is achieved via a logic-guided strategy, fusing historical incident data mining with deterministic physical constraints to correct rare-event probabilities. The framework is validated through a reconstruction of the 2023 Austin–Bergstrom runway incursion incident. Results indicate that under low visibility and degraded surveillance, incursion probability escalates to 86%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that while restoring surveillance infrastructure reduces collision risk by ~13%, communication compliance improvements prove insufficient in sensory-deprived environments. These findings quantitatively demonstrate that administrative controls cannot substitute for robust engineering safeguards in complex operations.

Autonomous aerial refueling is a key technology for enhancing the endurance of unmanned aerial vehicles; however, the wingtip vortices generated by the tanker create a strong three-dimensional wake-vortex flow field, whose downwash and lateral airflow can impose significant rolling moments on the follower Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), posing a serious threat to flight safety. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated framework that combines wake-vortex risk-field modeling with optimal path planning. The classical Hallock–Burnham (HB) model is first employed to predict vortex descent and lateral transport, while a two-phase model is used to characterize the temporal decay of vortex circulation. The predicted vortex parameters are then coupled with the UAV’s aerodynamic characteristics, and the rolling-moment coefficient (RMC) is introduced as a risk metric to compute its spatiotemporal distribution in three dimensions, thereby transforming the invisible wake-vortex disturbance into a visualizable and quantifiable dynamic three-dimensional risk map. On this basis, a wake-vortex-aware path-planning algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) is developed, incorporating adaptive weighting and elitist mutation strategies. A multi-objective cost function considering path length, safety, and smoothness is further constructed to search for an optimal safe path under wake-vortex influence. Simulation results indicate that, compared with the classical A* and Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithms, the proposed method reduces cumulative risk exposure by approximately 90% and 75%, respectively, while limiting the increase in path length to about 8% (significantly lower than the increases of 40% for A* and 44% for RRT). In addition, the maximum turning angle is constrained within 10°, and the computation time remains around 0.052 s, satisfying real-time requirements. These results demonstrate that the proposed method can generate safe, efficient, and dynamically feasible paths for UAV aerial refueling and provide a valuable reference for wake-vortex avoidance in similar aerospace missions.

Wake vortex is a critical factor affecting aircraft safety and airport runway capacity. To assess the runway capacity of mixed operations for training and transport airports, this study first simulated the wake vortex dissipation process of the commonly used A321 aircraft at Luoyang Beijiao Airport using a wake vortex prediction model. The SR20 training aircraft was selected as the subject for wake vortex encounters, with the rolling moment coefficient used as an indicator to assess the risk of wake encounters, and the wake vortex safety separation was calculated. Finally, a runway capacity model based on runway average service time for mixed training and transport operations was developed, calculating both runway landing capacity and the total runway capacity in the continuous landing and interleaved takeoff mode. The simulation results indicate that under different atmospheric BV frequencies, the safe wake vortex separations for the A321–SR20 combination are 6375 m, 6188 m, and 5700 m, respectively, representing reductions of 31.5%, 33.2%, and 38.4% shorter than the current CCAR-93TM-R6 regulatory separations, and compared to the RECAT 1.5 and RECAT-EU standards. Under reduced separation conditions, runway capacity demonstrated improvement across various atmospheric conditions and operational modes.

Unsafe behavior among air traffic controllers is a significant causal factor in civil aviation safety incidents. To explore the risks and pathways associated with controller-induced aviation accidents, this study develops an analytical model of controller unsafe behavior based on association rules and fault tree Bayesian networks. First, the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) was applied to identify and categorize aviation incident reports attributed to controller errors. Next, association rule algorithms were employed to uncover potential associations between controller unsafe behaviors and related risk factors, and a fault tree Bayesian network (FT-BN) model of controller unsafe behaviors was constructed based on these associations. The results revealed that the most likely unsafe behaviors were: improper allocation of aircraft spacing (30.5%), failure to take necessary intervention measures (28.4%), and improper transfer of control (27.8%). Backward analysis of the FT-BN indicated that improper allocation of aircraft spacing was most likely triggered by failure to provide adequate controller training, failure to take necessary intervention measures was most often caused by forgotten information, and improper transfer of control was most frequently associated with controller fatigue and failure to put risk management efforts in place. This study provides an important framework for the analysis and evaluation of controller behavior management and offers key insights for improving air traffic safety.

This paper proposes a hybrid deep learning network architecture (Inception-VGG16) to address the challenge of accurate aircraft wake vortex identification. The model first employs a Feature0 module for preliminary feature extraction of two-dimensional Doppler radar radial velocity data. This module comprises convolution, batch normalization, ReLU activation, and max pooling operations. Subsequently, improved InceptionB and InceptionC modules are utilized for parallel extraction of multi-scale features. The InceptionB former module adopts two parallel branches, combining 1 × 1 and 3 × 3 convolutions, and outputting 64-channel feature maps, while the InceptionC latter module expands the number of channels number to 128, enhancing the model’s feature representation capability. The backend employs the VGG16’s hierarchical structure, performing deep feature extraction through multiple convolution and pooling operations, and ultimately achieving wake vortex classification through fully connected layers. Experimental validation based on 3530 wind field samples collected at the Chengdu Shuangliu Airport demonstrates that compared to traditional methods (SVM, KNN, RF) and single deep networks (VGG16), the proposed hybrid model achieves a classification accuracy of 98.8%, significantly outperforming comparative traditional methods (SVM, KNN, RF) and single deep networks (VGG16). The model not only overcomes the limitations of single networks in processing multi-scale wake features but also enhances the model’s ability to identify wake vortices in complex backgrounds through deep feature hierarchies, providing a new technical solution for aviation safety monitoring systems based on deep learning.

The effect of crosswinds on paired approach (PA) procedures for Closely Spaced Parallel Runways (CSPR) is investigated in this paper by fully utilizing the crosswind environment to implement a more efficient PA and increase runway capacity. An improved wake dissipation model is used to quickly predict the change in the wake velocity field for the PA procedures. The change in the width of the hazard zone is explored in detail using the roll moment coefficient as a determination index. The calculation method for the hazard zone of a wake encounter in a PA is designed considering the influence of crosswind, turbulence, and ground effect. The results show the diffusion rate of the hazard zone and a decrease in the width of the maximum hazard zone under a breezeless environment with increases in the turbulence intensity. The maximum hazard zone width decreases with an increase in crosswind speed. Favorable crosswinds can reduce wake separation and improve the efficiency of a PA. Lower turbulence intensity has a better crosswind effect under a normal PA. The 3-degree offset PA can accommodate larger unfavorable crosswinds, with a higher turbulence intensity having a better crosswind effect. The 3-degree offset PA can substantially increase the proportion of time when no wake affects the PA procedure.