Shaddy Garg

Cloud services are omnipresent and critical cloud service failure is a fact of life. In order to retain customers and prevent revenue loss, it is important to provide high reliability guarantees for these services. One way to do this is by predicting outages in advance, which can help in reducing the severity as well as time to recovery. It is difficult to forecast critical failures due to the rarity of these events. Moreover, critical failures are ill-defined in terms of observable data. Our proposed method, Outage-Watch, defines critical service outages as deteriorations in the Quality of Service (QoS) captured by a set of metrics. Outage-Watch detects such outages in advance by using current system state to predict whether the QoS metrics will cross a threshold and initiate an extreme event. A mixture of Gaussian is used to model the distribution of the QoS metrics for flexibility and an extreme event regularizer helps in improving learning in tail of the distribution. An outage is predicted if the probability of any one of the QoS metrics crossing threshold changes significantly. Our evaluation on a real-world SaaS company dataset shows that Outage-Watch significantly outperforms traditional methods with an average AUC of 0.98. Additionally, Outage-Watch detects all the outages exhibiting a change in service metrics and reduces the Mean Time To Detection (MTTD) of outages by up to 88% when deployed in an enterprise cloud-service system, demonstrating efficacy of our proposed method.

AI-based monitoring has become crucial for cloud-based services due to its scale. A common approach to AI-based monitoring is to detect causal relationships among service components and build a causal graph. Availability of domain information makes cloud systems even better suited for such causal detection approaches. In modern cloud systems, however, auto-scalers dynamically change the number of microservice instances, and a load-balancer manages the load on each instance. This poses a challenge for off-the-shelf causal structure detection techniques as they neither incorporate the system architectural domain information nor provide a way to model distributed compute across varying numbers of service instances. To address this, we develop CausIL, which detects a causal structure among service metrics by considering compute distributed across dynamic instances and incorporating domain knowledge derived from system architecture. Towards the application in cloud systems, CausIL estimates a causal graph using instance-specific variations in performance metrics, modeling multiple instances of a service as independent, conditional on system assumptions. Simulation study shows the efficacy of CausIL over baselines by improving graph estimation accuracy by ∼ 25% as measured by Structural Hamming Distance whereas the real-world dataset demonstrates CausIL’s applicability in deployment settings.