Mingjie Gao

Potatoes, possessing the characteristics of being suitable for food crop, vegetable, and fodder use, have become an important supplementary product for ensuring food security and vegetable supply. Their price fluctuations play a significant role in regulating production and consumption. Against the backdrop of establishing a unified national market, studying potato price fluctuations from a spatial perspective is crucial for scientifically and systematically understanding the patterns of China’s potato market. This study employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Spatial autocorrelation and Vector Autoregression models to analyse spatial variations and inter-regional transmission mechanisms in China’s potato price fluctuations, utilising wholesale market price data from January 2014 to December 2024 across diverse regions. Findings indicate distinct spatial patterns in potato price dynamics with significant inter-regional interactions. The Northern Crop Region exhibits predominantly short-term, high-frequency fluctuations, whereas the Central Crop Region, Southern Crop Region, and Southwestern Crop Region are characterized by long-term, low-frequency fluctuations. Potato prices in China exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, and potato price fluctuations at both national and regional levels are primarily influenced negatively by those in other regions. The degree of interactive influence between potato prices across regions exhibits considerable variation, with the Central China crop region holding a certain degree of dominance in the national market. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening tiered and regional monitoring and analysis of potato prices, standardizing inter-regional transmission pathways for potato prices, and guiding the formation of a complementary regional structure for potato production.

The global potato industry has changed dramatically over the past half century—the potato-planting area in Poland decreased from 2,819,200 hectares in 1961 to 188,580 hectares in 2023, representing a 1394.96% relative decrease; South Africa’s potato production increased from 332,000 tons in 1961 to 2.42 million tons in 2023, representing a 627.60% relative increase. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of the potato-processing industries in China and major global producers. The global potato-processing market was valued at USD 40.97 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 60.08 billion by 2031, with significant variations in production and consumption patterns across countries. As the world’s largest potato producer, China processes approximately 15% of its total potato output, whereas India, the second-largest producer, processes only about 7%. In contrast, developed countries such as the United States, Canada, and leading European nations—including Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium—demonstrate significantly higher levels of processing, underpinned by advanced technologies, automation, and efficient quality-control systems. In order to conduct an in-depth analysis of the competitiveness of China’s potato-processing industry, this paper employs the Diamond Model to carry out relevant research. Despite rapid progress, China’s potato-processing industry still lags behind these global leaders in key aspects such as automation, production efficiency, and product quality. Differences remain evident in major processed potato products, including French fries, potato chips, potato flakes, and starch, as well as in raw-material supply chains, environmental sustainability, and market competitiveness. However, China’s role in the global potato-processing industry is evolving. A major milestone was reached in 2022 when China became a net exporter of frozen French fries for the first time, signaling a shift in its position in the international market. This transformation highlights China’s emergence as a key player in global French fry exports and suggests a potential restructuring of the industry. While challenges remain, the growing acceptance of Chinese French fries in international markets reflects improving product quality. Future industry trends point toward increased automation, product innovation, circular economy practices, and greater international market integration. To enhance its competitiveness, China must further modernize its processing industry, adopt cutting-edge technologies, strengthen quality control, and expand its global footprint to secure a stronger position in the evolving international potato-processing landscape.

Income increase is an important way to achieve comprehensive human development and to escape from poverty, and the growing aging problem in rural China poses a challenge to farm household income increase. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of China’s rural old-age burden on farm household income, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of household old-age burden on farm household income based on the data from the 2023 micro-farm field survey of China’s Henan Province, utilizing linear regression modeling and mediation effect modeling, filling the research gaps in the related fields. The results of the study found that, firstly, family old-age burden has a significant impact on the income of farm households, and that the heavier the family old-age burden, the lower the total income of farm households. Secondly, from the results of the heterogeneity of the impact, the poorer the health condition, the greater the negative impact of family old-age burden on farm household income. Old-age burden has a greater impact on high-income farm households than on low-income farm households, and old-age burden has a significant impact on the income of part-time farm households, while the impact is not significant on purely farm and non-farm households. Thirdly, the heavier the household old-age burden, the more unfavorable it is to the non-farm employment of farm households, thus affecting the income capacity of farm households. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and recommendations are put forward in three areas, namely, the continuous improvement of the social old-age security system, the realization of the function of the social old-age mechanism as an old-age pocket for key special groups, and the improvement of the social flexible employment mechanism.

Agricultural cropping structure is related to the quality of the agricultural supply system and is a key element of the structural reform of the agricultural supply side. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of rural population aging on the planting structure of food and cash crops by using a two-way fixed-effects model, which fills the gap in the research on the impact mechanism of the rural population aging on agricultural planting structure. The conclusions of the study show that: as the aging of the rural population deepens, the proportion of food crops planted will further increase, while the proportion of cash crops planted will decrease; agricultural mechanization will promote the further increase of the proportion of food crops planted while the proportion of cash crops planted will decrease in the deepening of the aging of rural population; the aging of the rural population has a more significant impact on the structure of agricultural planting in the eastern region and does not have a significant impact on the central and western provinces. The aging of the rural population has a significant impact on the agricultural planting structure in the eastern region, but not in the central and western provinces. This paper argues that we should fully respect the willingness of agricultural management subjects to choose planting varieties, increase the research, development, and promotion of agricultural machinery, continuously improve the level of farmers’ human capital, and further enhance the degree of organization, scale, and specialization of agricultural production.

China is the world’s largest potato producer, and the potato’s role in ensuring food security and rural development is irreplaceable. Therefore, how to achieve sustainable growth in potato production has attracted widespread attention from academia. However, few existing studies have analyzed how to achieve sustainable growth in main potato-producing areas based on farmers’ micro perspectives in terms of both technical efficiency and output elasticity of input factor. This paper investigates the output elasticities of input factors, technical efficiency, and its influencing factors among 398 potato farmers from China’s main potato-producing regions in 2021 to fill this knowledge gap. The stochastic frontier production is applied to calculate the technical efficiency and elasticities of input factors in main potato-producing areas. The Tobit model is utilized to analyze influencing factors of technical efficiency. Our findings indicate that the technical efficiency of the main potato production regions is 0.67, with an efficiency loss of 0.33. And, the output elasticity of land input and labor input is negative, and the output elasticity of capital input is positive. Moreover, the factors that affect the technical efficiency in main potato-producing areas include age, whether to be a village leader, income from other crops, labor input, potato price, and disaster impact. Our findings suggest that the agricultural authorities should strengthen the cultivation of potato producers, control the scale of potato production, and optimize the allocation of input factors.

The aim of this paper was to provide a more scientific and effective analysis of the fluctuation pattern of the Chinese potato market by extracting the characteristics of the price fluctuation cycle to effectively grasp the characteristics of price changes in the potato market, thus promoting the stable and healthy development of the Chinese potato industry, and to expand the application scenarios of the EEMD model to provide a reference for the study of price fluctuation patterns in other agricultural markets. This study used an ensemble empirical modal decomposition (EEMD) model to examine time-series data on Chinese wholesale potato market prices from January 2005 to December 2021. The results showed that (1) Chinese wholesale potato market prices are characterized by some rigidity, with sharp changes in growth rates; (2) Chinese wholesale potato market prices are dominated by short- and medium-term fluctuations, and the decomposed components can better reflect the characteristics of the original series fluctuations; (3) Chinese wholesale potato market monthly prices have long- and short-term fluctuations with a 6- and 19-month cycle, and are dominated by short-term high-frequency fluctuations; (4) monthly price fluctuations in the Chinese wholesale potato market are more intense in high-frequency than low-frequency fluctuations, and there is a strong correlation between high- and low-frequency fluctuations in precipitation, temperature and potato prices. Finally, suggestions were made for creating and improving a national potato price information platform and strengthening the information early warning mechanism; improving the potato production interest linkage mechanism and enhancing potato farmers’ ability to cope with market and natural risks; and improving the potato reserve system and potato storage facilities.