Freddie Bray

Despite there being sufficient evidence for the effectiveness of screening by cytology in preventing cancer of the cervix uteri, screening policies vary widely among European countries, and incidence is increasing in younger women. This study analyzes trends in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix uteri in 13 European countries to evaluate effectiveness of screening against a background of changing risk. Age-period-cohort models were fitted and period and cohort effects were estimated; these were considered as primarily indicative of screening interventions and changing etiology, respectively. A unique set of estimates was derived by fixing age slopes to one of several plausible age curves under the assumption that the relation between age and cervical cancer incidence is biologically determined. There were period-specific declines in cervical SCC in several countries, with the largest decreases seen in northern Europe. A pattern emerged across Europe of escalating risk in successive generations born after 1930. In the western European countries, a decrease followed by a stabilization of risk by cohort was accompanied by period-specific declines. In southern Europe, stable period, but increasing cohort trends, were observed. Substantial changes have occurred in cervical SCC incidence in Europe and well-organized screening programs have been highly effective in reducing the incidence of cervical SCC. Screening and changing sexual mores largely explain the changing period- and cohort-specific patterns, respectively. The increasing risk in recent cohorts is of obvious concern particularly in countries where no screening programs are in place. Further investigation of the effectiveness of opportunistic screening is warranted as is the observation of differing risk patterns in young cohorts in countries with relatively similar societal structures.

We have considered trends in incidence and mortality in 28 European countries using incidence data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and mortality from the WHO database. Countries with the highest rates in the early 1960s included the Nordic countries, Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom, but trends in these areas have tended to decline over recent calendar periods, particularly with regard to mortality. Southern European countries showed upward trends, at least until the early 1980s for France and Italy. Likewise, in most central and eastern European countries, ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates were originally relatively low, but tended to rise over time. Falls in mortality, but not in incidence, over recent years were observed in the Czech Republic and Hungary. In several countries, mainly in northern Europe, trends were more favorable at younger age (25–49 years) than in the subsequent age groups. Thus, recent trends in ovarian cancer have led to a leveling of rates across various areas of the continent, although a 2.5‐fold variation was still observed in the late 1990s between the highest mortality rate of 9.3/100,000 in Denmark and the lowest one of 3.6 in Portugal. These patterns should be viewed in the light of an observed reduction in parity, mainly in southern and eastern Europe, and the spread of oral contraceptive use, mainly in northern Europe, since these are the best recognized protective factors with regard to ovarian carcinogenesis. The declining mortality trends can also in part be ascribed to improvements in treatment.

BACKGROUND: As a result of a major social and demographic transition, Colombia is currently undergoing major changes in disease‐specific mortality rates, including an increasing burden of cancer death. The current article described some aspects of the evolution of cancer mortality in Colombia and, in particular, highlighted the trends for the most common causes of cancer death in Colombia.METHODS: Cancer deaths registered in the national mortality database from 1981–1996 were used to obtain age‐standardized mortality rates by gender and site using the world standard population. The estimated annual percentage change was obtained by fitting a simple log‐linear model to the rates in the last decade of recorded data, to gauge recent and near‐future cancer mortality trends.RESULTS: Between 1987 and 1996, the most common causes of cancer death were gastric carcinoma (17% of all cancer deaths), followed by lung (10.5%), prostate (6.2%), cervical (6%), and colorectal carcinoma (5.4%). There were observed declines in mortality trends noted in both genders for gastric carcinoma. Trends in lung carcinoma appeared to be reaching a plateau among men, but increased among women. There were apparent increases in rates of death from colorectal carcinoma for both genders, and from prostate carcinoma for men. Cervical carcinoma appeared to be increasing moderately.CONCLUSIONS: The authors reported that mortality rates from the most common malignancies are increasing, indicating that effective strategies for cancer control need to be put into immediate practice. To monitor and evaluate future trends, the provision of high‐quality data also needs to be addressed. Cancer 2004; © 2004 American Cancer Society.

One in ten of all new cancers diagnosed worldwide each year is a cancer of the female breast, and it is the most common cancer in women in both developing and developed areas. It is also the principal cause of death from cancer among women globally. We review the descriptive epidemiology of the disease, focusing on some of the key elements of the geographical and temporal variations in incidence and mortality in each world region. The observations are discussed in the context of the numerous aetiological factors, as well as the impact of screening and advances in treatment and disease management in high-resource settings.

Background: There continue to be major public health challenges arising from the increasing cancer burden in Europe. Drawing upon expertise from other European centres and networks, the Comprehensive Cancer Monitoring Programme in Europe project (CaMon) provides a central information resource of the cancer profile in European populations. Methods: The cancer indicators fundamental to disease monitoring in Europe are illustrated in terms of definitions and availability. Where necessary data are supplemented by estimates, in order to make available cancer data to individuals and institutions in all Member and Applicant countries of the European Union (EU). The relevant methodologies are discussed. Finally, a major ongoing project examining time trends of cancer incidence and mortality in 38 European countries is described. Results: In the European Union, there were approximately 1.6 million new cases of cancer according to the latest year available, and approximately, one million cancer deaths. About 2.6 million new cases of cancer, and 1.6 million deaths were estimated in Europe. Lung cancer is the most common cancer in Europe and together with cancers of the colon and rectum and female breast represent approximately 40% of new cases in Europe. Conclusion: The statistics generated by the project on cancer incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence, together with time trends and projections will be regularly updated and made available to a European Commission, and to a Community-wide audience via the CaMon website and via other means of dissemination, such as peer-reviewed journals.

Background: There continue to be major public health challenges arising from the increasing cancer burden in Europe. Drawing upon expertise from other European centres and networks, the Comprehensive Cancer Monitoring Programme in Europe project (CaMon) provides a central information resource of the cancer profile in European populations. Methods: The cancer indicators fundamental to disease monitoring in Europe are illustrated in terms of definitions and availability. Where necessary data are supplemented by estimates, in order to make available cancer data to individuals and institutions in all Member and Applicant countries of the European Union (EU). The relevant methodologies are discussed. Finally, a major ongoing project examining time trends of cancer incidence and mortality in 38 European countries is described. Results: In the European Union, there were approximately 1.6 million new cases of cancer according to the latest year available, and approximately, one million cancer deaths. About 2.6 million new cases of cancer, and 1.6 million deaths were estimated in Europe. Lung cancer is the most common cancer in Europe and together with cancers of the colon and rectum and female breast represent approximately 40% of new cases in Europe. Conclusion: The statistics generated by the project on cancer incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence, together with time trends and projections will be regularly updated and made available to a European Commission, and to a Community-wide audience via the CaMon website and via other means of dissemination, such as peer-reviewed journals.

Objective: The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently introduced a new world standard population for the production of age-standardized rates. In this study we compare cancer rates standardized to this population with those computed using reference populations in current practice, particularly the world standard of Segi (1960), in order to evaluate their adequacy as estimators of relative risk in diverse population groups and over time. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates standardized using these reference populations were calculated and compared for various cancers. Standardized rate ratios were compared with more efficient methods of approximating relative risk, the Mantel & Haenszel and maximum-likelihood estimators. The differences were tested by taking a synthesis of the relative risks and by taking into account whether effects were homogeneous across age strata or not. Results: There were no statistically significant differences between the relative risk estimates based on direct standardization and those obtained using Mantel & Haenszel (p < 0.99), or maximum-likelihood techniques (p > 0.99), regardless of whether the Segi or the WHO world population was used as the standard. Conclusions: Ratios of rates age-standardized using the world standard of Segi approximate relative risk as precisely as the WHO standard. For this, and important practical reasons, it is considered unnecessary to replace the Segi standard population for comparisons between cancer rates.