Vesna Karadzic

The objective of this study is to analyse the constitution of the emerging Montenegrin stock exchange. Four methodological time-series econometric steps are involved: the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, run test, autocorrelation function (ACF) test, and Hurst test. The study utilises a daily data vector from 5 January 2004 to 20 June 2023, with a specific focus on the period encompassing the growth and peak of market stocks in 2007, followed by the significant 2008 financial crisis and subsequent developments thereafter. The analysis culminates on 28 May 2018, which is considered one of the lowest points in the Montenegrin stock exchange market in a comparative time-series assessment. The results of the tests conducted in this study do not provide empirical evidence supporting the random walk theory and its returns on aggregated shocks in the Montenegrin stock exchange market. By reviewing previous empirical studies and presenting new empirical findings, this study confirms the presence of stochastic trends in co-movements in finance, contributing to a deeper understanding of emerging stock exchange markets. Study implications support greater reliance on market efficiency, risk management, and portfolio diversification.

The concept of Value at Risk(VaR) estimates the maximum loss of a financial position at a given time for a given probability. This paper considers the adequacy of the methods that are the basis of extreme value theory in the Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether the peaks-over-threshold method outperforms the block maxima method in evaluation of Value at Risk in emerging stock markets such as the Montenegrin market. The daily return of the Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January 2004 - February 2014. Results of the Kupiec test show that the peaks-over-threshold method is significantly better than the block maxima method, but both methods fail to pass the Christoffersen independence test and joint test due to the lack of accuracy in exception clustering when measuring Value at Risk. Although better, the peaks-over-threshold method still cannot be treated as an accurate VaR model for the Montenegrin frontier stock market.