Johan Lindahl

Photovoltaic (PV) grid hosting capacity assessments are subject to both aleatory uncertainties (weather-related stochasticity in PV power generation) and epistemic uncertainties (lack of system-specific data). In particular, limited information on individual PV systems’ orientation results in a common assumption by distribution system operators that all PV systems can inject their rated capacity simultaneously when calculating grid hosting capacity. This study addresses this epistemic uncertainty by quantifying the PV orientation smoothing effect (POSE) — the reduction in peak aggregated power generation caused by diverse system orientations — across 1,070 substations in four Swedish distribution grids containing 3,257 PV systems. Using machine learning-assisted aerial imagery analysis combined with LiDAR-derived PV system orientation data and weather-based deterministic physical power simulations, we determined that actual maximum simultaneous generation is 7.8–15.7% lower than rated capacity assumptions at the grid level, with individual substations showing reductions up to 24.3%. The analysis identified 5.3 MW of unutilized grid capacity across the four studied grids. Detailed power flow simulations of five high-PV penetration substations demonstrate that voltage rise reductions scale proportionally with POSE, decreasing by approximately 15% when accounting for orientation diversity. Self-consumption further reduces aggregated injected PV power by 30–40%, though corresponding voltage improvements are smaller due to spatial mismatches between generation and consumption locations. By reducing epistemic uncertainties through better orientation data, this approach offers a cost-effective strategy to increase infrastructure utilization while maintaining power quality standards as distributed PV deployment increases.

This paper presents the latest survey results for the calendar year 2023 concerning PV markets and policies, as well as other key issues. An increasing number of national markets experienced notable growth in 2023, with impacts on policy development. The global PV market grew to at least 350 GWp in 2023, compared to 236 GWp in 2022. This represents a year-on-year growth of more than 48%. Some estimations mention up to 380 GWp. Asia scored the very first place again in 2023 with China (200 GWp), India (10 GWp), Japan (6.6 GWp) and more appearing in the top markets. With around 33 GWp deployed this year, the market in USA. The market in EU grew significantly to around 56 GWp. The top countries are Germany (14GWp), Spain (8.2GWp) and Italy (4.8GWp). Fast development was observed once again in Latin America, with around 10 GWp installed in Brazil. • The global installed capacity reached over 1,500 GW in 2023 and 2 TW milestone will be achieved faster than previously expected. Production capacities have significantly increased in 2023, in particular upstream (polysilicon and wafer) and will keep on increasing in 2023. And excess capacity of polysilicon significantly contributed PV module price reduction China remains the main manufacturing hub worldwide, by far. Larger wafers and larger modules continue their dominance on the market, with 182 mm and 210 mm wafers established as the new standards, with 166 mm disappearing. Bottlenecks of various materials were reported in 2023, for example encapsulants, highly pure quartz sand for crucibles and shortage of Cu cables. The Global PV industry needs to address these resources issues and more sustainable production for the TW market.

Over the last two decades, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems have increased from a niche market to one of the leading power generation capacity additions annually. In spring 2022 the total installed photovoltaic electricity generation capacity broke the 1 TW barrier and it is expected that the annual market will reach 1 TW towards the end of the decade. This development has significant implications for the economy, society and the environment. Social acceptance of the necessary economic activities with regards to raw material extraction, component manufacturing and deployment is becoming a key topic to enable the industry and market to grow to the required multi TW level in the next decade. This paper gives an overview about the current situation in a number of IEA PVPS countries.