Xianyong Meng

Price volatility in fresh food commodities can weaken supply-chain coordination, disturb market expectations, and increase short-term risks to food availability and affordability. This issue is more pronounced for specialty crops with seasonal production, concentrated supply, limited storability, and high sensitivity to climate, trade, energy, and online-attention shocks. This study develops a trajectory-regularized physics-informed multi-source forecasting framework for daily wholesale prices of garlic, scallion, and ginger in China from 2014 to 2024. The framework, denoted as STL–ETO–EMA–PILSTM, integrates Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL), Efficient Multi-scale Attention (EMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), an economically motivated physics-informed trajectory residual constraint, and Exponential-Trigonometric Optimization (ETO), using production, climate, macroeconomic, trade, crude-oil, and online-attention indicators. In this framework, the physics-informed component is implemented as a trajectory residual constraint inspired by price-adjustment inertia and local continuity, rather than as a conventional PINN based on strict governing physical equations. In one-step-ahead forecasting, the model outperformed conventional machine learning baselines and additional time-series baselines, including naive persistence, Transformer Encoder, and PatchTST, with MAE values of 0.0853, 0.0581, and 0.1409 for garlic, scallion, and ginger, respectively, and R² values above 0.996. Leakage-prevention procedures, walk-forward validation, multi-horizon forecasting, and Diebold–Mariano tests were used to strengthen result credibility. Multi-step forecasting showed clear performance degradation as the horizon increased, supporting the positioning of the framework as a short-term market-monitoring tool rather than a long-horizon structural projection model. Permutation-based feature-importance and interaction analyses revealed crop-specific price drivers. The framework provides an interpretable tool for fresh food price forecasting, market stability monitoring, and short-term operational risk monitoring in fresh food supply chains.

To address the issues of low efficiency and large errors in traditional manual cucumber fruit phenotyping methods, this paper proposes the application of keypoint detection technology for cucumber phenotyping and designs an improved lightweight model called YOLO11m-SCFPose. Based on YOLO11m-pose, the original backbone network is replaced with the lightweight StarNet-S1 backbone, reducing model complexity. Additionally, an improved C3K2_PartialConv neck module is used to enhance information interaction and fusion among multi-scale features while maintaining computational efficiency. The Focaler-IoU loss function is employed to improve keypoint localization accuracy. Results show that the improved model achieves an mAP50-95 of 0.924, with a floating-point operation count (GFLOPs) of 32.1, and reduces the model size to 1.229 × 10⁷ parameters. This model demonstrates better computational efficiency and lower resource consumption, providing an effective lightweight solution for crop phenotypic analysis.

The aim of this paper is to propose an improved lightweight YOLOv11 detection method in response to the difficulty of extracting tomato fruit features in greenhouse environments and the need for lightweight picking equipment. Firstly, the conventional step convolution is substituted by the Average pooling Downsampling (ADown) module with multi-path fusion; Gated Convolution (gConv) is incorporated in the C3K2 module, which considerably reduces the number of parameters and computation of the model. Concurrently, the Lightweight Shared Convolutional Detection (LSCD) is incorporated into the detection head component with to the aim of further reducing the computational complexity. Finally, the Wise–Powerful intersection over Union (Wise-PIoU) loss function is employed to optimise the model accuracy, and the effectiveness of each improvement module is verified by means of ablation experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that the precision of ACLW-YOLO (A stands for ADown, C stands for C3K2_gConv, L stands for LSCD, and W stands for Wise-PIoU) reaches 94.2%, the recall (R) is 92.0%, and the mean average precision (mAP) is 95.2%. Meanwhile, the model size is only 3.3 MB, the number of parameters is 1.6 M, and the floating-point computation is 3.9 GFLOPs. The ACLW-YOLO model enhances the precision of detection through its lightweight design, while concurrently achieving a substantial reduction in computational complexity and memory utilisation. The study demonstrates that the enhanced model exhibits superior recognition performance for various tomato fruits, thereby providing a robust theoretical and technical foundation for the automation of greenhouse tomato picking processes.

Chlorophyll is a key substance in plant photosynthesis, and its content detection methods are of great significance in the field of agricultural AI. These methods provide important technical support for crop growth monitoring, pest and disease identification, and yield prediction, playing a crucial role in improving agricultural productivity and the level of intelligence in farming. This paper aims to explore an efficient and low-cost non-destructive method for detecting chlorophyll content (SPAD) and investigate the feasibility of smartphone image analysis technology in predicting chlorophyll content in greenhouse tomatoes. This study uses greenhouse tomato leaves as the experimental object and analyzes the correlation between chlorophyll content and image color features. First, leaf images are captured using a smartphone, and 42 color features based on the red, green, and blue (R, G, B) color channels are constructed to assess their correlation with chlorophyll content. The experiment selects eight color features most sensitive to chlorophyll content, including B, (2G − R − B)/(2G + R + B), GLA, RGBVI, g, g − b, ExG, and CIVE. Based on this, this study constructs and evaluates the predictive performance of multiple models, including multiple linear regression (MLR), ridge regression (RR), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and the Stacking ensemble learning model. The experimental results indicate that the Stacking ensemble learning model performs the best in terms of prediction accuracy and stability (R² = 0.8359, RMSE = 0.8748). The study confirms the feasibility of using smartphone image analysis for estimating chlorophyll content, providing a convenient, cost-effective, and efficient technological approach for crop health monitoring and precision agriculture management. This method helps agricultural workers to monitor crop growth in real-time and optimize management decisions.

In order to ensure the price stability of niche agricultural products and enhance farmers’ income, the study delves into the pattern of the ginger price fluctuation rule and its main influencing factors. By combining seasonal decomposition STL, long and short-term memory network LSTM, attention mechanism ATT and Kolmogorov-Arnold network, a combined STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN prediction model is developed, and the model parameters are finely tuned by using multi-population adaptive particle swarm optimisation algorithm (AMP-PSO). Based on an in-depth analysis of actual data on ginger prices over the past decade, the STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN model demonstrated excellent performance in terms of prediction accuracy: its mean absolute error (MAE) was 0.111, mean squared error (MSE) was 0.021, root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.146, and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.998. This study provides the Ginger Industry, agricultural trade, farmers and policymakers with digitalised and intelligent aids, which are important for improving market monitoring, risk control, competitiveness and guaranteeing the stability of supply and price.

In order to ensure the price stability of niche agricultural products and enhance farmers' income, the study delves into the pattern of ginger price fluctuation rule and its main influencing factors. By combining seasonal decomposition STL, long and short-term memory network LSTM, attention mechanism ATT and Kolmogorov-Arnold network, a combined STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN prediction model is developed, and the model parameters are finely tuned by using multi-population adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm (AMP-PSO). Based on an in-depth analysis of actual data on ginger prices over the past decade, the STL-LSTM-ATT-KAN model demonstrated excellent performance in terms of prediction accuracy: its mean absolute error (MAE) was 0.111, mean squared error (MSE) was 0.021, root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.146, and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.998.This study provides the Ginger Industry, agricultural trade, farmers and policy makers with digitalized and intelligent aids, which are important for improving market monitoring, risk control, competitiveness and guaranteeing the stability of supply and price.

Wheat is one of the most crucial food crops globally, with its yield directly impacting global food security. The accurate detection and counting of wheat spikes is essential for monitoring wheat growth, predicting yield, and managing fields. However, the current methods face challenges, such as spike size variation, shading, weed interference, and dense distribution. Conventional machine learning approaches have partially addressed these challenges, yet they are hampered by limited detection accuracy, complexities in feature extraction, and poor robustness under complex field conditions. In this paper, we propose an improved YOLOv10 algorithm that significantly enhances the model’s feature extraction and detection capabilities. This is achieved by introducing a bidirectional feature pyramid network (BiFPN), a separated and enhancement attention module (SEAM), and a global context network (GCNet). BiFPN leverages both top-down and bottom-up bidirectional paths to achieve multi-scale feature fusion, improving performance in detecting targets of various scales. SEAM enhances feature representation quality and model performance in complex environments by separately augmenting the attention mechanism for channel and spatial features. GCNet captures long-range dependencies in the image through the global context block, enabling the model to process complex information more accurately. The experimental results demonstrate that our method achieved a precision of 93.69%, a recall of 91.70%, and a mean average precision (mAP) of 95.10% in wheat spike detection, outperforming the benchmark YOLOv10 model by 2.02% in precision, 2.92% in recall, and 1.56% in mAP. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (R²) between the detected and manually counted wheat spikes was 0.96, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.57 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 4.09, indicating strong correlation and high accuracy. The improved YOLOv10 algorithm effectively solves the difficult problem of wheat spike detection under complex field conditions, providing strong support for agricultural production and research.

To promote the sustainable development of the garlic industry and provide a reference for the prediction of agricultural product price trends, this study used the garlic price in Jinxiang, China as the research object. First, the feature combination De was obtained by extracting the sequence obtained using VMD decomposition. Then, the De_Vo combined feature was constructed by combining the volatility feature Vo. Classification algorithms, such as logistic regression, SVM, and XGBoost, were used to classify and predict the garlic price trend. The results showed that the prediction results based on the combined features were better than those based on the single De or Vo features. In the binary classification prediction, the accuracy values for LR, SVM, and XGBoost were 62.6%, 71.4%, and 72.9%, respectively. Among them, the XGBoost algorithm performed better than the LR and SVM algorithms in the three-class, four-class, and five-class predictions.

Agricultural price prediction is a hot research topic in the field of agriculture, and accurate prediction of agricultural prices is crucial to realize the sustainable and healthy development of agriculture. It explores traditional forecasting methods, intelligent forecasting methods, and combination model forecasting methods, and discusses the challenges faced in the current research landscape of agricultural commodity price prediction. The results of the study show that: (1) The use of combined models for agricultural product price forecasting is a future development trend, and exploring the combination principle of the models is a key to realize accurate forecasting; (2) the integration of the combination of structured data and unstructured variable data into the models for price forecasting is a future development trend; and (3) in the prediction of agricultural product prices, both the accuracy of the values and the precision of the trends should be ensured. This paper reviews and analyzes the methods of agricultural product price prediction and expects to provide some help for the development of research in this field.