Xiaoyan Wang

In order to systematically understand the operational forecast performance of current numerical, statistical, and ensemble models for O₃ in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and surrounding regions, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted for the 30 model sets regarding O₃ forecasts in June–July 2023. The evaluation parameters for O₃ forecasts in the next 1–3 days were found to be more reasonable and practically meaningful than those for longer lead times. When the daily maximum 8 h average concentration of O₃ was below 100 μg/m³ or above 200 μg/m³, a significant decrease in the percentage of accurate models was observed. As the number of polluted days in cities increased, the overall percentage of accurate models exhibited a decreasing trend. Statistical models demonstrated better overall performance in terms of metrics such as root mean square error, standard mean bias, and correlation coefficient compared to numerical and ensemble models. Numerical models exhibited significant performance variations, with the best-performing numerical model reaching a level comparable to that of statistical models. This finding suggests that the continuous tuning of operational numerical models has a more pronounced practical effect. Although the best statistical model had higher accuracy than numerical and ensemble models, it showed a significant overestimation when O₃ concentrations were low and a significant underestimation when concentrations were high. In particular, the underestimation rate for heavy polluted days was significantly higher than that for numerical and ensemble models. This implies that statistical models may be more prone to missing high-concentration O₃ pollution events.

The new particle formation (NPF) process is a significant source of atmospheric secondary particles, which has remarkable impacts on the regional air quality and global radiative forcing. Most NPF studies conduct their measurements at a single site, which can hardly provide information about the regionality of NPF events at large scales (>100 km). During the 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, simultaneous measurements of particle number size distributions and NPF-associated precursors were conducted at a mountainous site close to the Winter Olympic Village in Chongli (CL), Zhangjiakou, and an urban site in Beijing (BJ) located 150 km southeast of the CL site. High NPF frequencies were observed at the CL (50%) and BJ (52%) sites; however, the fraction of concurrent NPF events was smaller than the results in other regions. In addition, the wind distributions exhibited distinct air mass origins at the two sites during the concurrent NPF events. Compared with the BJ site, the NPF growth rates were higher at the CL site due to higher levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and radiation. Surprisingly, the formation rates at the CL site were lower than at the BJ site, even with a higher sulfuric acid concentration and lower CS, which may be attributed to lower dimethylamine concentrations in the mountainous area. This study reveals that, although NPF events are commonly thought to occur on regional scales, their intensity and mechanisms may have significant spatial inhomogeneity. Further studies are required to reduce the uncertainty when expanding the mechanisms based on the urban conditions to regional or global scales in the models.