Mateusz Bielecki

Background: Patients with advanced breast cancer (BC) may be treated with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for tumor control. Variable treatment responses are a clinical challenge and there is a need to predict tumor radiosensitivity a priori. There is evidence showing that tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are markers for chemotherapy response; however, this association has not yet been validated in breast radiation therapy. This pilot study investigates the computational analysis of TILs to predict SABR response in patients with inoperable BC. Methods: Patients with inoperable breast cancer (n = 22) were included for analysis and classified into partial response (n = 12) and stable disease (n = 10) groups. Pre-treatment tumor biopsies (n = 104) were prepared, digitally imaged, and underwent computational analysis. Whole slide images (WSIs) were pre-processed, and then a pre-trained convolutional neural network model (CNN) was employed to identify the regions of interest. The TILs were annotated, and spatial graph features were extracted. The clinical and spatial features were collected and analyzed using machine learning (ML) classifiers, including K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machines (SVMs), and Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), to predict the SABR response. The models were evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROCs) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results: The KNN, SVM, and GNB models were implemented using clinical and graph features. Among the generated prediction models, the graph features showed higher predictive performances compared to the models containing clinical features alone. The highest-performing model, using computationally derived graph features, showed an AUC of 0.92, while the highest clinical model showed an AUC of 0.62 within unseen test sets. Conclusions: Spatial TIL models demonstrate strong potential for predicting SABR response in inoperable breast cancer. TILs indicate a higher independent predictive performance than clinical-level features alone.

Up to 30% of breast cancer (BC) patients will develop distant metastases (DM), for which there is no cure. Here, statistical and machine learning (ML) models were developed to estimate the risk of site-specific DM following local-regional therapy. This retrospective study cohort included 175 patients diagnosed with invasive BC who later developed DM. Clinicopathological information was collected for analysis. Outcome variables were the first site of metastasis (brain, bone or visceral) and the time interval (months) to developing DM. Multivariate statistical analysis and ML-based multivariable gradient boosting machines identified factors associated with these outcomes. Machine learning models predicted the site of DM, demonstrating an area under the curve of 0.74, 0.75, and 0.73 for brain, bone and visceral sites, respectively. Overall, most patients (57%) developed bone metastases, with increased odds associated with estrogen receptor (ER) positivity. Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) positivity and non-anthracycline chemotherapy regimens were associated with a decreased risk of bone DM, while brain metastasis was associated with ER-negativity. Furthermore, non-anthracycline chemotherapy alone was a significant predictor of visceral metastasis. Here, clinicopathologic and treatment variables used in ML prediction models predict the first site of metastasis in BC. Further validation may guide focused patient-specific surveillance practices.