Huseyin Ayan
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Huseyin Ayan has a total of 17 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Dilum Dissanayake
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
8 shared publications - Muhammed Cavus
Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8SA, UK
7 shared publications - Margaret Bell
Newcastle University
6 shared publications - Adib Allahham
Faculty of Science and Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK
2 shared publications - Damian Giaouris
Newcastle University
2 shared publications - Kabita Adhikari
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, U.K.
2 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 30 September 2026
- Published by Elsevier in SSRN Electronic Journal
Who stayed home after the earthquake? Age, neighbourhood status and urban rail demand in Istanbul
Transport planning for earthquakes concentrates on damaged supply, yet in most events the network keeps running, and demand determines how it is used. This paper examines who stopped using urban rail after a strongly felt but largely undamaging earthquake, and what explains the spatial pattern of the loss. The analysis uses open smart-card counts by station, day and age group for more than 340 rail stations in Istanbul in April–May 2024 and 2025, around the moment magnitude 6.2 earthquake of 23 April 2025. It struck on a public holiday and was followed by two days of school and university closures. An event-study difference-in-differences design with a same-date 2024 control separates the earthquake from the holiday, bridge-day placebos bound the long-weekend effect, and station-level regressions for 270 stations relate losses to modelled shaking, user age and neighbourhood socio-economic status. Ridership fell by about one-third on the day after the earthquake and was within 5% of normal within a week, although a small residual shortfall cannot be ruled out. The loss was largest among young users, as the closures imply. However, users aged 30–60, whom the closures affected only indirectly, still travelled about one-quarter less. Shaking intensity does not explain which stations lost most; losses were larger where stations served more young users and where neighbourhood status was higher. Overall, the demand shock of this moderate earthquake was large, mostly short-lived and socially graded, shaped more by institutional closures and the social composition of station catchments than by the strength of shaking.
- 30 September 2026
- Published by Elsevier in SSRN Electronic Journal
Open AccessWho stayed home after the earthquake? Age, neighbourhood status and urban rail demand in Istanbul
Transport planning for earthquakes concentrates on damaged supply, yet in most events the network keeps running, and demand determines how it is used. This paper examines who stopped using urban rail after a strongly felt but largely undamaging earthquake, and what explains the spatial pattern of the loss. The analysis uses open smart-card counts by station, day and age group for more than 340 rail stations in Istanbul in April–May 2024 and 2025, around the moment magnitude 6.2 earthquake of 23 April 2025. It struck on a public holiday and was followed by two days of school and university closures. An event-study difference-in-differences design with a same-date 2024 control separates the earthquake from the holiday, bridge-day placebos bound the long-weekend effect, and station-level regressions for 270 stations relate losses to modelled shaking, user age and neighbourhood socio-economic status. Ridership fell by about one-third on the day after the earthquake and was within 5% of normal within a week, although a small residual shortfall cannot be ruled out. The loss was largest among young users, as the closures imply. However, users aged 30–60, whom the closures affected only indirectly, still travelled about one-quarter less. Shaking intensity does not explain which stations lost most; losses were larger where stations served more young users and where neighbourhood status was higher. Overall, the demand shock of this moderate earthquake was large, mostly short-lived and socially graded, shaped more by institutional closures and the social composition of station catchments than by the strength of shaking.
- Open Access
- 30 September 2026
- Published by Elsevier in SSRN Electronic Journal
Multi-Scale Fractal and Wavelet Diagnostics of Road Network Vulnerability during the 26 August 2026 Nepal Flash Flood
Mountain transport corridors are increasingly exposed to compound flood hazards, yet conventional vulnerability assessments often depend on hydrological or hydraulic information that is sparse, incomplete, or spatially unrepresentative in steep and data-constrained terrain. This limitation is particularly critical in Himalayan valleys, where rivers, roads, bridges, settlements, and energy infrastructure are compressed into the same narrow geomorphic corridor. The 26 August 2026 Nepal flash flood exemplified this vulnerability, causing widespread road and bridge destruction along the strategically important Bhote Koshi–Trishuli corridor and disrupting regional accessibility, hydropower operations, and Nepal’s principal land connection with China. This study investigates whether river-planform geometry can provide an independent spatial indicator of transport-corridor fragility. A multi-scale framework integrating fractal and wavelet analyses was applied to river geometry and evaluated against independently mapped post-event road damage. The resulting morphometric anomalies showed strong and scale-persistent correspondence with damaged road sections, while wavelet analysis revealed markedly greater geometric variability in affected reaches. Statistical validation further indicated that the observed concentration of destroyed roads was unlikely to arise from random spatial association. These findings demonstrate that river-planform complexity can provide a robust, data-efficient screening layer for prioritizing vulnerable infrastructure where conventional hazard information is limited.
- 30 September 2026
- Published by Elsevier in SSRN Electronic Journal
Open AccessMulti-Scale Fractal and Wavelet Diagnostics of Road Network Vulnerability during the 26 August 2026 Nepal Flash Flood
Mountain transport corridors are increasingly exposed to compound flood hazards, yet conventional vulnerability assessments often depend on hydrological or hydraulic information that is sparse, incomplete, or spatially unrepresentative in steep and data-constrained terrain. This limitation is particularly critical in Himalayan valleys, where rivers, roads, bridges, settlements, and energy infrastructure are compressed into the same narrow geomorphic corridor. The 26 August 2026 Nepal flash flood exemplified this vulnerability, causing widespread road and bridge destruction along the strategically important Bhote Koshi–Trishuli corridor and disrupting regional accessibility, hydropower operations, and Nepal’s principal land connection with China. This study investigates whether river-planform geometry can provide an independent spatial indicator of transport-corridor fragility. A multi-scale framework integrating fractal and wavelet analyses was applied to river geometry and evaluated against independently mapped post-event road damage. The resulting morphometric anomalies showed strong and scale-persistent correspondence with damaged road sections, while wavelet analysis revealed markedly greater geometric variability in affected reaches. Statistical validation further indicated that the observed concentration of destroyed roads was unlikely to arise from random spatial association. These findings demonstrate that river-planform complexity can provide a robust, data-efficient screening layer for prioritizing vulnerable infrastructure where conventional hazard information is limited.
- 30 June 2026
- Published by Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology in Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology
- Vol. 8 (1) , 26-41
Modelling Passenger Satisfaction in Light Rail Transit Using an Integrated TAN Bayes and PLS-SEM Approach
Light rail transit (LRT) is seen as an environmentally friendly public transport alternative compared to other motorised modes due to reduced air pollution, lower energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to investigate regular users' perception of LRT and whether socio-demographic variables influence its use. A questionnaire with attitudinal statements categorised into six main themes, namely service quality, network and infrastructure, accessibility, user benefits, sustainability aspects, and socio-demographics, was piloted and distributed using online channels across the Tyne and Wear Metro catchment area. Using a combination of Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes and Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) techniques, the interrelationships between statistically significant perception variables affecting regular users' metro use were identified. The analysis emphasises the influential role of accessibility, direct benefits, policy implementation, reliability and availability, sustainability, and security and safety in enhancing user satisfaction. Notable interrelationships were also found, including positive associations between comfort-customer care and reliability-availability, and between safety-security and accessibility. Valuable insights into factors affecting metro use provide transport planners and policymakers with scientific evidence to make informed decisions on improving the metro system's efficiency and effectiveness, enabling cost-effective investments to make LRT more attractive and increase patronage.
- 30 June 2026
- Published by Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology in Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology
- Vol. 8 (1) , 26-41
Modelling Passenger Satisfaction in Light Rail Transit Using an Integrated TAN Bayes and PLS-SEM Approach
Light rail transit (LRT) is seen as an environmentally friendly public transport alternative compared to other motorised modes due to reduced air pollution, lower energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. This study aims to investigate regular users' perception of LRT and whether socio-demographic variables influence its use. A questionnaire with attitudinal statements categorised into six main themes, namely service quality, network and infrastructure, accessibility, user benefits, sustainability aspects, and socio-demographics, was piloted and distributed using online channels across the Tyne and Wear Metro catchment area. Using a combination of Tree Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayes and Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) techniques, the interrelationships between statistically significant perception variables affecting regular users' metro use were identified. The analysis emphasises the influential role of accessibility, direct benefits, policy implementation, reliability and availability, sustainability, and security and safety in enhancing user satisfaction. Notable interrelationships were also found, including positive associations between comfort-customer care and reliability-availability, and between safety-security and accessibility. Valuable insights into factors affecting metro use provide transport planners and policymakers with scientific evidence to make informed decisions on improving the metro system's efficiency and effectiveness, enabling cost-effective investments to make LRT more attractive and increase patronage.
- Open Access
- 11 October 2025
- Published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Sustainable Transportation
- Vol. 20 (2) , 159-183
Discovering the dynamics of metro satisfaction: Insights from the Tyne and Wear metro experience
- 11 October 2025
- Published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Sustainable Transportation
- Vol. 20 (2) , 159-183
Open AccessDiscovering the dynamics of metro satisfaction: Insights from the Tyne and Wear metro experience
- Open Access
Advances in Energy Storage, AI Optimisation, and Cybersecurity for Electric Vehicle Grid Integration
The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into smart grids (SGs) is reshaping both energy systems and mobility infrastructures. This review presents a comprehensive and cross-disciplinary synthesis of current technologies, methodologies, and challenges associated with EV–SG interaction. Unlike prior reviews that address these aspects in isolation, this work uniquely connects three critical pillars: (i) the evolution of energy storage technologies, including lithium-ion, second-life, and hybrid systems; (ii) optimisation and predictive control techniques using artificial intelligence (AI) for real-time energy management and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) coordination; and (iii) cybersecurity risks and post-quantum solutions required to safeguard increasingly decentralised and data-intensive grid environments. The novelty of this review lies in its integrated perspective, highlighting how emerging innovations, such as federated AI models, blockchain-secured V2G transactions, digital twin simulations, and quantum-safe cryptography, are converging to overcome existing limitations in scalability, resilience, and interoperability. Furthermore, we identify underexplored research gaps, such as standardisation of bidirectional communication protocols, regulatory inertia in V2G market participation, and the lack of unified privacy-preserving data architectures. By mapping current advancements and outlining a strategic research roadmap, this article provides a forward-looking foundation for the development of secure, flexible, and grid-responsive EV ecosystems. The findings support policymakers, engineers, and researchers in advancing the technical and regulatory landscape necessary to scale EV–SG integration within sustainable smart cities.
Open AccessAdvances in Energy Storage, AI Optimisation, and Cybersecurity for Electric Vehicle Grid Integration
The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into smart grids (SGs) is reshaping both energy systems and mobility infrastructures. This review presents a comprehensive and cross-disciplinary synthesis of current technologies, methodologies, and challenges associated with EV–SG interaction. Unlike prior reviews that address these aspects in isolation, this work uniquely connects three critical pillars: (i) the evolution of energy storage technologies, including lithium-ion, second-life, and hybrid systems; (ii) optimisation and predictive control techniques using artificial intelligence (AI) for real-time energy management and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) coordination; and (iii) cybersecurity risks and post-quantum solutions required to safeguard increasingly decentralised and data-intensive grid environments. The novelty of this review lies in its integrated perspective, highlighting how emerging innovations, such as federated AI models, blockchain-secured V2G transactions, digital twin simulations, and quantum-safe cryptography, are converging to overcome existing limitations in scalability, resilience, and interoperability. Furthermore, we identify underexplored research gaps, such as standardisation of bidirectional communication protocols, regulatory inertia in V2G market participation, and the lack of unified privacy-preserving data architectures. By mapping current advancements and outlining a strategic research roadmap, this article provides a forward-looking foundation for the development of secure, flexible, and grid-responsive EV ecosystems. The findings support policymakers, engineers, and researchers in advancing the technical and regulatory landscape necessary to scale EV–SG integration within sustainable smart cities.
- Open Access
Enhancing Smart Grid Reliability Through Data-Driven Optimisation and Cyber-Resilient EV Integration
This study presents a novel cyber-resilient, data-driven optimisation framework for real-time energy management in electric vehicle (EV)-integrated smart grids. The proposed framework integrates a hybrid optimisation engine—combining genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning—with a real-time analytics module to enable adaptive scheduling under uncertainty. It accounts for dynamic electricity pricing, EV mobility patterns, and grid load fluctuations, dynamically reallocating charging demand in response to evolving grid conditions. Unlike existing GA/RL schedulers, this framework uniquely integrates adaptive optimisation with resilient forecasting under incomplete data and lightweight blockchain-inspired cyber-defence, thereby addressing efficiency, accuracy, and security simultaneously. To ensure secure and trustworthy EV–grid communication, a lightweight blockchain-inspired protocol is incorporated, supported by an intrusion detection system (IDS) for cyber-attack mitigation. Empirical evaluation using European smart grid datasets demonstrates a daily peak demand reduction of 9.6% (from 33 kWh to 29.8 kWh), with a 27% decrease in energy delivered at the original peak hour and a redistribution of demand that increases delivery at 19:00 h by nearly 25%. Station utilisation became more balanced, with weekly peak normalised utilisation falling from 1.0 to 0.7. The forecasting module achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.25 kWh and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) below 20% even with up to 25% missing data. Among tested models, CatBoost outperformed LightGBM and XGBoost with an RMSE of 0.853 kWh and of 0.416. The IDS achieved 94.1% accuracy, an AUC of 0.97, and detected attacks within 50–300 ms, maintaining over 74% detection accuracy under 50% novel attack scenarios. The optimisation runtime remained below 0.4 s even at five times the nominal dataset scale. Additionally, the study outlines a conceptual extension to support location-based planning of charging infrastructure. This proposes the alignment of infrastructure roll-out with forecasted demand to enhance spatial deployment efficiency. While not implemented in the current framework, this forward-looking integration highlights opportunities for synchronising infrastructure development with dynamic usage patterns. Collectively, the findings confirm that the proposed approach is technically robust, operationally feasible, and adaptable to the evolving demands of intelligent EV–smart grid systems.Open AccessEnhancing Smart Grid Reliability Through Data-Driven Optimisation and Cyber-Resilient EV Integration
This study presents a novel cyber-resilient, data-driven optimisation framework for real-time energy management in electric vehicle (EV)-integrated smart grids. The proposed framework integrates a hybrid optimisation engine—combining genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning—with a real-time analytics module to enable adaptive scheduling under uncertainty. It accounts for dynamic electricity pricing, EV mobility patterns, and grid load fluctuations, dynamically reallocating charging demand in response to evolving grid conditions. Unlike existing GA/RL schedulers, this framework uniquely integrates adaptive optimisation with resilient forecasting under incomplete data and lightweight blockchain-inspired cyber-defence, thereby addressing efficiency, accuracy, and security simultaneously. To ensure secure and trustworthy EV–grid communication, a lightweight blockchain-inspired protocol is incorporated, supported by an intrusion detection system (IDS) for cyber-attack mitigation. Empirical evaluation using European smart grid datasets demonstrates a daily peak demand reduction of 9.6% (from 33 kWh to 29.8 kWh), with a 27% decrease in energy delivered at the original peak hour and a redistribution of demand that increases delivery at 19:00 h by nearly 25%. Station utilisation became more balanced, with weekly peak normalised utilisation falling from 1.0 to 0.7. The forecasting module achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.25 kWh and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) below 20% even with up to 25% missing data. Among tested models, CatBoost outperformed LightGBM and XGBoost with an RMSE of 0.853 kWh and of 0.416. The IDS achieved 94.1% accuracy, an AUC of 0.97, and detected attacks within 50–300 ms, maintaining over 74% detection accuracy under 50% novel attack scenarios. The optimisation runtime remained below 0.4 s even at five times the nominal dataset scale. Additionally, the study outlines a conceptual extension to support location-based planning of charging infrastructure. This proposes the alignment of infrastructure roll-out with forecasted demand to enhance spatial deployment efficiency. While not implemented in the current framework, this forward-looking integration highlights opportunities for synchronising infrastructure development with dynamic usage patterns. Collectively, the findings confirm that the proposed approach is technically robust, operationally feasible, and adaptable to the evolving demands of intelligent EV–smart grid systems. - Open Access
Forecasting Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in Smart Cities Using Hybrid Deep Learning of Regional Spatial Behaviours
This study presents a novel predictive framework for estimating electric vehicle (EV) charging demand in smart cities, contributing to the advancement of data-driven infrastructure planning through behavioural and spatial data analysis. Motivated by the accelerating regional demand accompanying EV adoption, this work introduces HCB-Net: a hybrid deep learning model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial feature extraction with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for robust regression. The framework is trained on user-level survey data from two demographically distinct UK regions, the West Midlands and the North East, incorporating user demographics, commute distance, charging frequency, and home/public charging preferences. HCB-Net achieved superior predictive performance, with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.1490 and an score of 0.3996. Compared to the best-performing traditional model (Linear Regression, ), HCB-Net improved predictive accuracy by 13.5% in terms of , and outperformed other deep learning models such as LSTM () and GRU (), which failed to capture spatial patterns effectively. The hybrid model also reduced RMSE by approximately 23% compared to the standalone CNN (RMSE = 0.1666). While the moderate indicates scope for further refinement, these results demonstrate that meaningful and interpretable demand forecasts can be generated from survey-based behavioural data, even in the absence of high-resolution temporal inputs. The model contributes a lightweight and scalable forecasting tool suitable for early-stage smart city planning in contexts where telemetry data are limited, thereby advancing the practical capabilities of EV infrastructure forecasting.Open AccessForecasting Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in Smart Cities Using Hybrid Deep Learning of Regional Spatial Behaviours
This study presents a novel predictive framework for estimating electric vehicle (EV) charging demand in smart cities, contributing to the advancement of data-driven infrastructure planning through behavioural and spatial data analysis. Motivated by the accelerating regional demand accompanying EV adoption, this work introduces HCB-Net: a hybrid deep learning model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial feature extraction with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for robust regression. The framework is trained on user-level survey data from two demographically distinct UK regions, the West Midlands and the North East, incorporating user demographics, commute distance, charging frequency, and home/public charging preferences. HCB-Net achieved superior predictive performance, with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.1490 and an score of 0.3996. Compared to the best-performing traditional model (Linear Regression, ), HCB-Net improved predictive accuracy by 13.5% in terms of , and outperformed other deep learning models such as LSTM () and GRU (), which failed to capture spatial patterns effectively. The hybrid model also reduced RMSE by approximately 23% compared to the standalone CNN (RMSE = 0.1666). While the moderate indicates scope for further refinement, these results demonstrate that meaningful and interpretable demand forecasts can be generated from survey-based behavioural data, even in the absence of high-resolution temporal inputs. The model contributes a lightweight and scalable forecasting tool suitable for early-stage smart city planning in contexts where telemetry data are limited, thereby advancing the practical capabilities of EV infrastructure forecasting. - Top Cited PapersOpen Access
- 29 April 2025
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Soft Computing
- Vol. 176
Transparent and bias-resilient AI framework for recidivism prediction using deep learning and clustering techniques in criminal justice
- 29 April 2025
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Soft Computing
- Vol. 176
Top Cited PapersOpen AccessTransparent and bias-resilient AI framework for recidivism prediction using deep learning and clustering techniques in criminal justice
- Open Access
- 1 March 2025
- Published by MDPI AG in Future Transportation
- Vol. 5 (1) , 22
Investigating the Factors That Influence the Ridership of Light Rail Transit Systems Using Thematic Analysis of Academic Literature
Among urban public transport systems, light rail, mass transit, and tram systems offer sustainable travel options. However, many of these systems, particularly in developed countries, fail to meet user needs and the expectations of transport authorities. Increasing the demand for urban rail systems as an alternative to private cars is essential for achieving net zero targets and Sustainable Development Goals. This study investigates the factors influencing urban rail demand using qualitative data analysis, with a focus on thematic analysis. A systematic review of 53 studies from the UK, Europe, and worldwide, including journal articles and transport research reports, was conducted and coded using NVivo Version 15 software. Six main categories emerged: land use and accessibility, service quality, user benefits, governance, sustainability aspects, and user-focused elements. These categories, along with their themes and sub-themes, were analysed using cross-tabulations to compare attributes across domains. The key findings indicate that accessibility and intermodal connectivity are crucial for encouraging urban rail use, while ticketing, station facilities, walkability, travel costs, ventilation, and security also moderately influence user preferences. This study provides essential guidelines for policymakers and transport providers to improve urban rail systems and informed the development of a questionnaire to explore the interrelationships of these factors, discussed in a forthcoming paper.
- 1 March 2025
- Published by MDPI AG in Future Transportation
- Vol. 5 (1) , 22
Open AccessInvestigating the Factors That Influence the Ridership of Light Rail Transit Systems Using Thematic Analysis of Academic Literature
Among urban public transport systems, light rail, mass transit, and tram systems offer sustainable travel options. However, many of these systems, particularly in developed countries, fail to meet user needs and the expectations of transport authorities. Increasing the demand for urban rail systems as an alternative to private cars is essential for achieving net zero targets and Sustainable Development Goals. This study investigates the factors influencing urban rail demand using qualitative data analysis, with a focus on thematic analysis. A systematic review of 53 studies from the UK, Europe, and worldwide, including journal articles and transport research reports, was conducted and coded using NVivo Version 15 software. Six main categories emerged: land use and accessibility, service quality, user benefits, governance, sustainability aspects, and user-focused elements. These categories, along with their themes and sub-themes, were analysed using cross-tabulations to compare attributes across domains. The key findings indicate that accessibility and intermodal connectivity are crucial for encouraging urban rail use, while ticketing, station facilities, walkability, travel costs, ventilation, and security also moderately influence user preferences. This study provides essential guidelines for policymakers and transport providers to improve urban rail systems and informed the development of a questionnaire to explore the interrelationships of these factors, discussed in a forthcoming paper.
- Open Access
- 1 January 2025
- Published by Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) in IET Intelligent Transport Systems
- Vol. 19 (1)
Understanding User Behaviour and Predicting Charging Costs: A Machine Learning Approach to Support Electric Vehicle Adoption Decisions
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of charging patterns and user behaviour to enable future transportation infrastructure to be planned and designed to meet user needs. This study uses machine learning to predict the costs of EV charging sessions and analyse user behaviour to support strategic planning and decision‐making. We examined data that included factors such as total energy consumption and charging duration, and compared three models: linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting. The gradient boosting model performed the best, with a mean squared error of 0.041 and an ‐squared () of 0.91. Additionally, the analysis of user behaviour revealed peak charging times between 6:00 PM (18:00) and 9:00 PM (21:00), with the majority of sessions occurring on weekdays, particularly Wednesdays. Most users preferred charging infrastructures within a 10‐mile radius. These insights not only enhance the understanding of current EV charging behaviours but also provide valuable information for local authorities and decision‐makers in transportation planning and infrastructure development. By integrating predictive modelling and behavioural analysis, this research offers a novel and robust framework for designing EV charging networks, addressing user needs, and advancing the sustainability of urban transportation systems. This approach not only supports the efficient deployment of charging infrastructures but also introduces the concept of charging comfort by aligning infrastructure development with real user needs. Unlike traditional methods that overlook user preferences and waiting times, our model integrates behavioural analysis to improve the overall user experience. By quantifying when, where, and how users prefer to charge their vehicles, this framework supports not only infrastructure optimisation but also enhances user satisfaction, a key factor in accelerating EV adoption and reducing the environmental burden of urban mobility.
- 1 January 2025
- Published by Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) in IET Intelligent Transport Systems
- Vol. 19 (1)
Open AccessUnderstanding User Behaviour and Predicting Charging Costs: A Machine Learning Approach to Support Electric Vehicle Adoption Decisions
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of charging patterns and user behaviour to enable future transportation infrastructure to be planned and designed to meet user needs. This study uses machine learning to predict the costs of EV charging sessions and analyse user behaviour to support strategic planning and decision‐making. We examined data that included factors such as total energy consumption and charging duration, and compared three models: linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting. The gradient boosting model performed the best, with a mean squared error of 0.041 and an ‐squared () of 0.91. Additionally, the analysis of user behaviour revealed peak charging times between 6:00 PM (18:00) and 9:00 PM (21:00), with the majority of sessions occurring on weekdays, particularly Wednesdays. Most users preferred charging infrastructures within a 10‐mile radius. These insights not only enhance the understanding of current EV charging behaviours but also provide valuable information for local authorities and decision‐makers in transportation planning and infrastructure development. By integrating predictive modelling and behavioural analysis, this research offers a novel and robust framework for designing EV charging networks, addressing user needs, and advancing the sustainability of urban transportation systems. This approach not only supports the efficient deployment of charging infrastructures but also introduces the concept of charging comfort by aligning infrastructure development with real user needs. Unlike traditional methods that overlook user preferences and waiting times, our model integrates behavioural analysis to improve the overall user experience. By quantifying when, where, and how users prefer to charge their vehicles, this framework supports not only infrastructure optimisation but also enhances user satisfaction, a key factor in accelerating EV adoption and reducing the environmental burden of urban mobility.