Christian Ebeke

This paper examines whether the drivers of domestic revenue mobilization in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) vary across levels of revenue performance, with a particular focus on non resource tax. Using panel quantile regressions for 118 countries over 1990-2022, we find substantial heterogeneity in the correlates of revenue mobilization. At relatively low tax performance, after accounting for country-fixed effects, per capita income growth, IMF technical assistance, and governance quality are most strongly associated with revenue gains. By contrast, at relatively higher tax-to-GDP level, governance quality appears to be the most robust correlate. Focusing on the role of technical assistance, we construct a novel shift-share instrument by interacting annual aggregate IMF capacity-development resources with a predetermined measure of country exposure. Our IV-based analysis supports the idea that technical assistance matters most when tax performance is relatively low. These results highlight the need to tailor reform strategies, with focused technical assistance where revenue performance is relatively low, while strengthening the role of governance and the social contract in sustaining high levels of domestic revenue mobilization.

This paper provides new cross-country evidence that greater investment in agricultural R&D significantly mitigates the adverse effects of climate variability on crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this critical role, only a handful of countries have invested at levels sufficient to reach the thresholds where R&D delivers effective risk adaptation. Our analysis indicates that closing this gap would require an additional US$1–3 billion in annual agricultural research investment across the region.

This article proposes a cross‐country examination of the drivers and impacts of episodes of surges in countries' participation in international value chains based on event analysis previously used in the empirical literature in studies on export surges or GDP growth accelerations. Using a large sample of developing countries over the period 1990–2018, and relying on the EORA database, the article offers three main results. First, the ‘surges’ are not common, with only 11 episodes recorded in sub‐Saharan Africa over the past three decades. Second, strong FDI inflows and governance quality precede the occurrence of these ‘surges’, while protracted real exchange rate under‐valuations appear to nurture these surges. Third, once they occur, these ‘surges’ are transformative: they are associated with higher real per capita GDP growth, rapid industrialization, stronger diversification, and sophistication of exports, faster poverty reduction and higher urbanisation rate.

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.

This paper examines to what extent intergenerational mobility shapes both the impact of income inequality on growth as well as the effect that growth has on poverty and on income inequality in Africa. Thanks to newly available and internationally comparable data on intergenerational elasticities of income and education, we confirm the detrimental role played by higher inequality of opportunity as measured by intergenerational mobility. The study concludes that neglecting to address the root causes of inequality of opportunity can be socially and economically very costly.

After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism

"Volume 2022 (2022): Issue 198 (Sep 2022): Regional Disparities in Europe" published on 30 Sep 2022 by International Monetary Fund.

"Volume 2020 (2020): Issue 014 (Sep 2020): Sectoral Policies for Climate Change Mitigation in the EU" published on 16 Sep 2020 by International Monetary Fund.

A hypothetical European Minimum Wage (MW) set at 60 percent of each country's median wage would reduce in-work poverty but have limited effects on overall poverty, as many poor households do not earn a wage near MW and higher unemployment, higher prices, and a loss of social insurance benefits may erode direct benefits. Turning to competitiveness, since the MW increase to reach the European standard would be larger in euro area countries with excessive external surpluses, the associated real appreciation should help curb existing imbalances. However, a few countries with already weak external positions would experience an undesirable real appreciation.

The services sector is increasingly important for the euro area economy, but productivity growth in the sector has stalled over the past two decades. Remaining barriers to cross-border trade in services within the EU Single Market contribute to this weak performance. Our empirical analysis suggests that slow progress in tackling these barriers is associated with political economy factors such as weak government support in parliaments, low government efficiency and high markups. To remove the cross-border restrictions on services trade, we suggest combining incentives such as financial support, technical assistance and improved communication on barriers with more effective enforcement.