Egle E. Murauskaite

While emotional content predicts social media post sharing, competing theories of emotion imply different predictions about how emotional content will influence the virality of social media posts. We tested and compared these theoretical frameworks. Teams of annotators assessed more than 4000 multimedia posts from Polish and Lithuanian Facebook for more than 20 emotions. We found that, drawing on semantic space theory, modeling discrete emotions independently was superior to models examining valence (positive or negative), activation/arousal (high or low), or clusters of emotions and was on par with but had more explanatory power than a seven basic emotion model. Certain discrete emotions were associated with post sharing, including both positive and negative and relatively lower and higher activation/arousal emotions (e.g., amusement, cute/kama muta, anger, and sadness) even when controlling for number of followers, time up, topic, and Facebook angry reactions. These results provide key insights into better understanding of social media post virality.

Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought on deterring Russia.