Eduarda Trindade Filgueiras

Os eventos extremos, acentuados pelas mudanças climáticas, podem desencadear situações de secas prolongadas e chuvas intensas, impactando expressivamente o gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. Neste contexto, o presente estudo objetiva avaliar as consequências das mudanças climáticas sobre o regime pluviométrico na bacia hidrográfica do rio Verde Grande utilizando dados provenientes de quatro modelos de circulação global: BESM, HadGEM 2-ES e MIROC 5. A metodologia tem o intuito de projetar equações de intensidade-duração-frequência (IDF) para o futuro e compará-las com as equações IDF baseadas em dados observados. Para isso, foram considerados dois cenários: o RCP 4.5, caracterizado pela estabilização das emissões de gases de efeito estufa, e o RCP 8.5, marcado pelo aumento contínuo dessas emissões. Os resultados indicam reduções nos valores de precipitações máximas diárias e nos totais anuais para as projeções climáticas na bacia do rio Verde Grande. Dessa forma, recomenda-se a realização de estudos mais aprofundados para desenvolver ações adaptativas e mitigatórias em resposta às consequências das mudanças climáticas para a bacia do rio Verde Grande.

Despite the overall extension of the Amazon basin (approximately 6,000,000),which encompasses such a complex ecosystem and territories belonging to seven different nations, it is worth mentioning that environmental assessment related to changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in this region are often conducted respecting geopolitical boundaries associated with each country or taking into account the so-called Amazon biome. With the purpose of prospecting the intricate and hidden hydrological patterns, we undertake an in-depth evaluation of the water balance along the 2001-2021 time span across the whole basin, whose behavior depends on the features deriving from the metamorphoses in land use and land cover. To accomplish that task, the influence of the components of the water balance, namely rainfall and evapotranspiration, jointly with the terrestrial topographic mapping, are examined to investigate the interactions among the physical mechanisms that make up the hydrological cycle and the corresponding physical hydrological processes triggered by deforestation and reforestation in the region. More specifically, the modeling approach was rigorously designed to also consider, separately or not Negro, Solimões, Madeira, Tapajós and Xingu hydrographic sub-basins, which are the most important ones of the Amazon basin. The results highlight that, in the southern region of the Amazon, specifically within the Madeira river sub-basin, the lowest forest coverage is observed (56.0%), whereas in the northern Negro river sub-basin, the most notable forest coverage is observed (85.0%).The most preserved forest areas, such as the Negro and Solimões river sub-basins, with percentages of 81.9% and 74.2%, respectively, have higher annual rates of precipitation and evapotranspiration over time. On the other hand, regions that suffered the most intense deforestation along the time period studied, such as the Madeira, Tapajós and Xingu sub-basins, have lower annual rates of precipitation and evapotranspiration, with a preservation percentage of 54.6%, 62.6% and 70, 7%, respectively. As the pace of deforestation slowed between 2003 and 2013, annual precipitation rates increased by 12.0%, while evapotranspiration decreased by 2.0%. The hydrological findings of this paper highlight th predominant role of the forest in the context of the global water balance of the Amazon basin and the potential to also produce distinct impacts within different parts of the basin in terms of having more or less rainfall and evaporation. In addition, those variabilities in the hydrological operational components and mechanisms due to changes in land cover and land use also reveals the potential impacts that could be expected in the surrounding areas, closer or farther, notably beyond the limits of the Amazon basin.