Simon Lusher
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Research Subjects
Simon Lusher has a total of 56 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Alastair Trickett
Trickett Farming Ltd., Fortshot House Farm, Wike, Leeds LS17 9JY, UK
1 shared publication - Aled Jones
Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK
1 shared publication - Alexandra M. Johnstone
The Rowett Institute, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
1 shared publication - Andrew Cottrell
Met Office Hadley Centre
1 shared publication - Andrew Juan Challinor
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
1 shared publication - Andrew Voysey
Soil Capital, 6 Putney Common, London SW15 1HL, UK
1 shared publication
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 12 October 2023
- Published by MDPI AG in Sustainability
- Vol. 15 (20) , 14783
Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation
We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.
- 12 October 2023
- Published by MDPI AG in Sustainability
- Vol. 15 (20) , 14783
Open AccessScoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation
We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.